The rare earth industry chain is in full swing, and the motor energy efficiency improvement plan has become an important activation node.
"The sales volume of permanent magnet motor is also growing in the direction of R & D and production of permanent magnet motor." Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) (600580. SH) a relevant person told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter on February 22, "the national policy is mainly to raise the energy efficiency threshold of motors, which is equivalent to that motors with high energy consumption can not be produced, and will be gradually replaced later."
Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) the national policy mentioned by relevant people refers to the motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023) jointly formulated by the Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Administration of market supervision at the end of October 2021. The goal is that by 2023, the annual output of high-efficiency and energy-saving motors will reach 170 million kW, and the proportion of in-service high-efficiency and energy-saving motors will reach more than 20%.
Therefore, research reports of many securities companies predict that the demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials for high-efficiency motors will usher in an explosive period.
For example, Huajin securities research report said that the demand for high-efficiency and energy-saving motors (rare earth permanent magnet materials) has doubled; According to the Research Report of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) , the potential demand increment of magnetic materials for industrial motors may be comparable to the new energy vehicle market; The research report points out that industrial motor is expected to become the second largest downstream application field of rare earth permanent magnet after new energy vehicles in the future.
market opportunities for large-scale enterprises
The market space for high-efficiency and energy-saving motors is large enough.
According to the 2021 semi annual report of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) (002176. SZ), the motor industry has a large market capacity and, as an important driving source, occupies a pivotal position in the global industrial automation market.
At present, China has achieved mass and large-scale production of micro and special motors in 25 categories, 60 series and more than 5000 specifications, and has become a major producer and exporter of servo motors in the world.
The promotion of energy-saving and consumption reduction of high-efficiency Motors has significant social and economic benefits.
According to the objectives set out in the motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023), by 2023, high-efficiency and energy-saving motors will achieve an annual power saving of 49 billion kwh, equivalent to saving 15 million tons of standard coal and reducing 28 million tons of carbon dioxide.
According to the data of the implementation plan of the special action for industrial energy conservation and green development in 2013 cited by the Ministry of industry and information technology, the motor is the terminal with the largest power consumption in China's industrial field. In 2013, the power consumption of China's industrial motor accounted for 75% of the total industrial power consumption, and the operation efficiency was more than 10 percentage points lower than the advanced level at home and abroad.
According to the above cited data, if the motor energy efficiency is increased by 1 percentage point, 26 billion kwh of electricity can be saved every year. According to the estimation of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the annual power saving potential of the national motor system is 130-230 billion kwh, which is equivalent to the power generation of two to three Three Gorges power stations.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023) jointly formulated by the Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Administration of market supervision specifically mentioned improving the green level of light rare earth permanent magnet and other materials and accelerating the breakthrough of the optimal control of permanent magnet motor efficiency.
The potential scale of China's motor market, which is at the upgrading node, is amazing. According to the estimation of Xinda Securities Research Report, the scale of China's full caliber motor market is close to trillion yuan.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) the research report also said that at present, China's rare earth permanent magnet motors account for only 3%, and there is a huge demand space to achieve the planned goal.
However, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) pointed out that there are many enterprises engaged in production in the motor industry. Some small-scale enterprises do not have high enough design level or high-quality manufacturing equipment. They can not meet the requirements of the new motor standards and are gradually eliminated by the market.
"After these enterprises withdraw, the market share of their products will bring market opportunities to large-scale enterprises." Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) said in the announcement.
Innuovo Technology Co.Ltd(000795) (000795. SZ) an executive told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the efficiency improvement of motor has a positive impact on the company's business, but there is a downstream transmission process, "it is not reflected in half a year or a few months, but the trend is unchanged. To improve efficiency, materials are one aspect and technology is another aspect."
the annual demand for new magnetic materials exceeds 20000 tons
Large quantities of motors need to be updated, which will become an important value application field of rare earth permanent magnet materials.
"The cost of motors made of rare earth NdFeB materials is higher, but the same specifications have high performance and small volume." The aforementioned Innuovo Technology Co.Ltd(000795) executives told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "the general direction in the future must be rare earth NdFeB materials."
The data show that the main factor limiting the efficiency of the motor is the material. The application of rare earth permanent magnet can greatly reduce the loss of motor energy consumption and improve the efficiency of motor energy conversion.
"We have more than 3000 motor models, and now we are making permanent magnet motors." Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) relevant people told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Innuovo Technology Co.Ltd(000795) previously announced through the investor interaction platform that the output of permanent magnet motor accounts for about 70% of its motor series products.
"We have more than 5000 motor specifications. We will choose to use neodymium iron boron permanent magnet or ferrite permanent magnet materials according to different products and customer requirements. There are more rare earth neodymium iron boron for industrial motors." The above Innuovo Technology Co.Ltd(000795) executives revealed that "the development trend of the whole motor industry itself is intelligence, portability and high efficiency. The proportion of rare earth neodymium iron boron has increased to a certain extent."
The aforementioned Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) stakeholders also said that from the perspective of orders and performance improvement, the motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023) has a positive impact, "industrial motors have better sales and full orders, and permanent magnet motors will certainly grow in the future."
However, the first benefit of the motor energy efficiency improvement plan is the increase in the demand for rare earth neodymium iron boron.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) the research report points out that without considering the new demand, assuming that 12% of the stock industrial motors from 2022 to 2023 are transformed into high-efficiency and energy-saving motors, of which 50% are rare earth permanent magnet motors, the annual demand for new magnetic materials is more than 20000 tons.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the research report also said that assuming that the permeability of rare earth permanent magnet motors will reach 10%, 15% and 20% respectively in 2023, 2024 and 2025, the unit consumption of NdFeB is calculated as 700 kg / MW, corresponding to 24000 tons, 36000 tons and 48000 tons of NdFeB respectively.
According to the analysis of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) Research Report, the future motor demand is mainly divided into two aspects: one is incremental demand, that is, the new motor demand every year; The second is the stock demand, that is, replace the old motor with a new motor, especially the high-efficiency and energy-saving motor to replace the traditional motor.
"Assuming that the annual penetration rate of rare earth permanent magnet motor increases by 3% from 2022 to 2023, it will drive the demand for neodymium, iron and boron to 20000 tons per year, and drive the downstream demand of light rare earth to increase by more than 20% per year from 2022 to 2023.
” Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) the research report said.
The securities research reports of many securities companies said that the field of industrial motor will further open the demand space of magnetic material market, and the rare earth and magnetic material industry chain will directly benefit.
bear the pressure of upstream raw material price rise
Motor efficiency improvement continues to add fuel and fire to the hot rare earth permanent magnet materials, but the motor industry itself is under the pressure of raw material price rise.
Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) publicly stated that it has both permanent magnet motor and asynchronous motor products, of which permanent magnet motor still accounts for the majority. The company has adjusted the price for many times to cope with the rise of raw materials.
Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) also said that due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream bulk raw materials, it had a certain impact on the gross profit margin of the company's motor products.
According to the regular report, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) the gross profit margin of traditional motor products and servo motor products was 27.58% and 18.81% respectively in 2020, and decreased to 23.86% and 16.92% respectively in the first half of 2021.
This can also be seen from the performance forecast of listed companies.
From the perspective of many listed companies of rare earth permanent magnet materials, such as China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) (600111. SH), Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) (000970. SZ), Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) (688077. SH), which have issued performance forecast, the proportion of listed companies benefiting from the price rise and demand growth of products and the year-on-year growth of performance in 2021 is more than doubled, Most listed motor companies do not need to release performance forecast because their profits have not increased or decreased by more than 50% year-on-year.
Even if it is predicted that the net profit in 2021 will increase by 2343.03% - 3041.03% year-on-year Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , the reason for the change of performance is the significant increase of lithium carbonate sales price and production and sales volume year-on-year, which has nothing to do with the motor business.
"The price rise of raw materials and products will certainly have an impact on our profits and every motor enterprise." The aforementioned Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) relevant person told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "we also hope that the motor will be lighter and more intelligent, and the cost will be lower. However, at present, the cost is affected by raw materials, and everyone will face the risk of price rise."
According to its disclosure, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) all the rare earth permanent magnet materials required are purchased.
"The transfer of the cost of raw material price increases requires a certain time for customers to accept, and the price increase of our products is not as large as that of raw materials." The above Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) relevant person said, "we are also communicating with customers and try to adjust the price. The price increase may be more reflected in new products, and there should be a gradual replacement process."
However, the Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , which is known as the first in the revenue volume industry, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the rise in the price of raw materials is controllable for its cost.
