On the afternoon of February 22, the price of the main contract of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal futures fell by 1.51% to close at 810 yuan / ton.
Since mid January, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal futures prices have rebounded again. At the beginning of 2022, the price of thermal coal once fell to 660.4 yuan / ton, and the highest rebound after the Spring Festival exceeded 870 yuan / ton.
As power coal is related to China’s power supply, its supply and demand and price trend have been concerned by all walks of life. The national standing committee recently stressed the need to ensure the supply and price of bulk commodities, increase coal supply and ensure normal production and people’s livelihood. The national development and Reform Commission pointed out that with the recovery of national coal production after the festival and the enhancement of safety production capacity, high-quality coal production capacity will be further released.
National Development and Reform Commission: coal supply level continues to improve
Since the second quarter of 2021, global bulk commodities have experienced a collective price rise tide. Since then, with China’s strong power demand and relatively insufficient coal supply, coupled with the influence of market speculation sentiment, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal prices have continued to rise at a high level. By the middle of October 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) main contract price of coal futures will reach a record high of 1982 yuan / ton.
After late October 2021, the national development and Reform Commission and many departments jointly carried out strict regulation and rectification on many links of the coal industry. The national coal output and coal storage in power plants rebounded significantly, and the coal price fell sharply to about 700 yuan / ton. However, after entering January 2022, the coal price has entered a rising trend again.
On February 21, the national development and Reform Commission announced that recently, the national development and Reform Commission has strengthened overall planning and dispatching, and actively promoted major coal producing provinces and key coal enterprises to increase coal production on the premise of ensuring safety.
According to the national development and Reform Commission, the national coal output has rebounded to more than 12 million tons. According to the dispatching data, on February 20, the national coal output reached 12.18 million tons, returning to the average daily output level in the fourth quarter of last year; Among them, the output of Shanxi Province and Shaanxi Province remained at a high level of about 3.5 million tons and 2 million tons respectively, and the output of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has exceeded 3.7 million tons, a new high this month.
The national development and Reform Commission predicts that in the next stage, with the warmer weather, the production and supply of the main coal producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia will tend to be stable. At the same time, during the Spring Festival, the coal mines have carried out the investigation, rectification and maintenance of potential safety hazards, the safety production capacity has been enhanced, the high-quality coal production capacity will be further released, and the coal supply level will continue to improve.
According to Xinhua news agency, the executive meeting of the State Council held on February 14 proposed to continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities, increase coal supply, support coal power enterprises to make more efforts to ensure normal production and people’s livelihood.
pay attention to the stable production and price trend of coal
The peak season of coal consumption in winter is coming to an end. Under the background of continuous policy supervision and loose supply and demand, the institution reminds that we should continue to pay attention to the stable production and price trend of coal, and give early warning of changes in inventory and supply in advance.
According to the weekly report on Ceci index analysis (issue 6, 2022) released by the compilation Office of China power coal purchase price index (Ceci) under the China Electricity Council (Ceci), after the Lantern Festival, the process of coal mine resumption of work and production has been accelerated, and the supply has been further restored. Due to the impact of snow and short-term restrictions on vehicle transportation in some areas, the sales volume of coal mines has decreased, and the inventory of coal mines has accumulated slightly.
The weekly report of Ceci index analysis pointed out that with the acceleration of the resumption of factories and infrastructure construction after the festival, the superposition of the recent strong cold air southward and continuous large-scale cooling, the power generation of the power plant increased significantly year-on-year. Although the amount of coal entering the plant increased month on month, it was still lower than the coal consumption; The overall inventory of the power plant continued to decline, with a month on month decrease of more than 3 million tons.
CLP said that the policy of ensuring supply and price stability continued to work, the coal prices at pits and ports were close to the regulation range, and the purchase prices of large coal enterprises had implemented the standards of relevant departments; The enthusiasm of port shipping is poor, the market trading is cold, and the buyer and the seller keep mostly on the sidelines.
Baocheng futures research report pointed out that since February, there have been frequent cold air activities, strong support for residents’ rigid demand for electricity, increased procurement pressure of some power plants, coupled with the slow accumulation of warehouses in northern ports and other factors, the weak correction of coal price has come to an end temporarily.
at present, the policy regulation is still strong. With the gradual retreat of the cold air and the resumption of production by local coal enterprises, the coal supply will tend to be loose in the medium and long term.
Recently, most coal enterprises have resumed normal production, coupled with the gradual weakening of cold air, which has reduced the pressure on Residents’ electricity consumption, and the boost on the demand side is limited. It is expected that coal prices will be difficult to maintain an independent strength and will remain volatile.
CITIC futures research report pointed out that on the whole, the supply side coal mine production recovered rapidly after the festival, and the coal price also fell to a reasonable range, but the shipping upside down continued, the port transfer in was weak, and the inventory replenishment was still slow.
March will usher in the off-season of coal demand, superimposed on the impact of policy regulation, and the rebound momentum of coal price is insufficient. However, we should pay attention to the daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants. It is expected that the coal price will show an interval fluctuation trend at the end of the peak season and in the game of tight balance of supply structure.
The weekly report of Ceci index analysis suggests that we should further accelerate the recovery of coal output, stabilize effective output and avoid price without market; Clarify the coal price formation mechanism as soon as possible, clarify the benchmark price of medium and long-term coal contracts, and further promote the signing and performance of medium and long-term contracts for electric fuel. In addition, we should also strengthen the government supervision, punishment and guidance on the performance of medium and long-term coal contracts, pay attention to the balance between supply and demand of power coal, the return of coal quality and price, and do a good job in early warning of inventory and insufficient supply.
