The three major A-share indexes collectively closed lower today, with the Shanghai index falling 0.96% to close at 3457.15 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to close at 13297.11; The gem index fell 1.38% to close at 2765.91. The market turnover reached 978.3 billion yuan, and the number of falling stocks was close to 3800. Most of the industry sectors closed down, led by the industries of games, cultural media and medical devices, and the precious metal industry rose sharply against the market. Northbound funds sold a net 7.34 billion yuan today.
Today’s news:
1. The Russian stock market once fell by more than 17%! Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the independence of the two regions of eastern Ukraine! Us and European response
2. The most complete investment guide is coming! These tracks are worth focusing on
3. Four departments: from now on to the end of April, carry out special rectification of e-cigarette sales to minors
4. The top-level planning of the pension industry is coming! Basic old-age insurance for employees: national overall planning and gradual postponement of retirement age
5. Shake 180 billion yuan of industry! The General Administration of Customs urgently prompted “immediate suspension of consumption” of these listed companies. Is there an opportunity?
6. Amazing strength! The first 30000 yuan gift bag “midwifery” assisted reproduction track in China is on
7. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : taking history as a mirror, the current round of real estate stock market is still half way, and it is still worth adding at present
8. Another 600 million capital increase from the 200 billion fund. What signal does this semiconductor enterprise release? There are more than 10 concept stocks
9. Two departments: strengthen the research and development of key technical equipment and carry out research on sodium ion batteries
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) indicates that “steady growth” is approaching the time point of the two sessions, and external risks still need to be paid attention to. We once again observed the introduction of the “steady growth” policy. The national standing committee meeting held on February 14 confirmed the measures to promote steady industrial growth and rescue the service industry, and the three major documents on steady growth were issued in the following days. Many real estate policies have also shown signs of relaxation. “Steady growth” ushered in a number of favorable policies, but it is also gradually approaching the time point of the two sessions. External risks still need attention. We believe that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of starting a continuous interest rate increase cycle after March. Compared with 2015, it is more similar to 1994. The yield of 10Y US bonds may not peak and fall after March. The pressure of subsequent inflation and interest rate increase is still large. Pay close attention to the trend of RMB exchange rate. Meanwhile, the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine may also have a new impact on global risky assets. At present, the spring breeze of digital economic policy is blowing vigorously, and the direction of digital infrastructure represented by data center, Gigabit home entry, communication base station and industrial Internet is expected to usher in fundamental improvement. In the direction, suppliers providing data center planning, construction and data center supporting facilities, such as refrigeration, power supply and power generation, are expected to benefit the most. Secondly, optical communication suppliers and green energy guarantee suppliers also benefited significantly.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market has continued to adjust since the beginning of the year, and the current repair window has arrived: on the one hand, popular tracks such as “new semi army” have been in the bottom area, and gradually started to rebound. Since the beginning of the year, the growth track of high prosperity and hard technology has been greatly adjusted. On the one hand, the Fed’s concern about raising interest rates or even shrinking the table has heated up, US bond interest rates have risen sharply, and US stocks, especially technology stocks, have fallen sharply, which has continued to drag down China’s risk appetite. At present, the market panic about the Fed’s interest rate hike has eased. The recent 50bp interest rate hike in March is expected to fall sharply, and the US bond interest rate will rise and fall, which will also weaken the impact on China. On the other hand, the high degree of institutional crowding and poor market microstructure in China have also led to the economic growth, especially the track adjustment. However, at present, the congestion of the “new half army” has dropped to a low level, and the valuation cost performance has also improved significantly. Among them, the leading stocks took the lead in stabilizing and recovering, which is the leading signal for the “new semi army” to return to rising. At present, the comparison trend between new energy and semiconductor leaders and non leaders has been in the recovery stage, and the characteristics of the bottom of the sector appear. In addition, some investors are worried about the deterioration of the long-term prosperity of the “new semi army”, but at present, whether it is new energy, semiconductor or military industry, its predicted net profit growth in 2022 is still more than 40%, and the high prosperity trend remains unchanged. On the other hand, “steady growth” is not to the right, and “mini version 2014” will continue to perform. Since the end of last year, we have put the “steady growth” sector in the first place, and the relative income has been significant so far. Recently, many investors are worried that “steady growth” has entered the right side, and the sector has also fluctuated. However, referring to the experience of the past five rounds of “steady growth”, the market’s expectation of policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from “expected warming” to “skepticism” and then to “final belief”, from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. At present, A-Shares repeatedly shake and grind the bottom, bringing layout opportunities. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved; Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China’s growth stabilize gradually; Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to two main investment lines: first, the allocation of varieties of “stable growth” in policies, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on.
Guosheng Securities believes that in the past three months, steady growth has been the most clear main line, and relevant sectors have been generally repaired. From infrastructure, real estate to finance, they have performed well in the past period of time; On the other hand, the decline of high boom track generally reached 20%. After nearly three months of return, the current round of value / growth ratio has already broken through the post epidemic channel, and the strength and sustainability of the recovery are higher than those in the previous rounds. From the perspective of index price comparison, the value growth ratio has been close to the center in the past 10 years, and there is still about 15% space from the center in the past 5 years. After a round of overall repair, we believe that the internal order of steady growth in the next stage is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle. 1) Whether it is the actual tendency of short-term policies or the demand for high-quality development in the medium and long term, new and old infrastructure is the biggest focus of steady growth policies, and the infrastructure chain has the highest certainty; 2) At present, the overall upward driving force of real estate is slightly insufficient, and the front-end sales are depressed. However, with the reduction of the first mortgage interest rate and the down payment ratio in many places, the loose expectation of real estate continues to rise; 3) Banks are expected to track the credit volume and the improvement of credit risk and continue to repair, but the outlook of the manufacturing industry is still low, and the short-term weakness of the real economy may put some pressure on the valuation of bank stocks; 4) Under the guarantee of delivery and risk prevention, the completion boom this year is expected to be maintained, and the post cycle sector follows the change of real estate stocks. Overall, with steady growth gradually moving towards the cash stage, the internal ranking rate of the sectors in the second half of the first quarter is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at the macroeconomic level, the current market uncertainty mainly comes from overseas. First, the statement in the minutes of the US FOMC meeting is relatively pigeon to the previous expectations of the market, driving the adjustment of global asset prices. However, the probability of the improvement of the US inflation data in the short term is small, and the interest rate increase process of the Federal Reserve may still have an impact on the assets at a high level, Passive foam extrusion; Second, the repeated fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has promoted the rise of global risk aversion; Third, the UK and the European Central Bank continuously released the partial Eagle signal, breaking the previous market expectations.
On the whole, the recovery of overseas liquidity is still a definite event, and the overall rhythm is tight before and loose after. We must focus on the marginal changes in the global financial environment, especially in emerging market countries. The probability of the full outbreak of geopolitical risks is limited, but the repeated fermentation on the news may continue to impact the global market sentiment. The certainty of China is relatively strong. Under the background of the marginal slowdown of inflation pressure, China is still expected to maintain a better liquidity environment in the first and second quarters, and it is expected to cut interest rates in the first half of the year. The overweight of structural monetary policy is expected to drive the concepts of digital economy, expanding domestic demand and dual control of energy consumption. At present, the volume of the A-share market is slightly insufficient and the style is not clear. The impact of the news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent. We believe that this is mainly because investors have great differences in their judgment on the future market trend. In the context of the continuous rise of overseas uncertainty risks, China’s continued easing and steady growth and hedging against the downward pressure of the economy, we suggest paying attention to the regression of the epidemic disturbance and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth in the short term, and focusing on the value blue chips with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
