Chief weekly view: week 8, 2022

Strategy: risk release, bottom gradually clear

Since the beginning of 2022, the market has continued to adjust due to two major factors: the internal vacuum of economic and financial data and the expectation of tightening external liquidity. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the market has stopped falling, and the release of social finance data exceeding expectations has interrupted the rebound. There are two popular views in the market: one is that although the total amount of social finance is high, the structure is poor and the sustainability is in doubt; Second, US inflation exceeded expectations again, and the rise of US bond interest rates continued to suppress the market. We believe that now is the turning point for the market to get out of the bottom grinding period. Two major expectations are poor: first, the wide credit will be transmitted from the recovery of financial data to the stabilization of the real economy. "Broad money" ultimately needs to rely on "broad credit" to stabilize the economy; Second, the rise of US bond interest rate this time is mainly due to the rise of real interest rate rather than inflation, which is quite different from that at the beginning of 2021. The performance of A-Shares has reflected the expected impact of tightening overseas liquidity. The turning point of social finance is a signal that steady growth is effective. Now it is not like February 2021, but more like the beginning of 2019.

Industry concern: continue to grasp the infrastructure chain and underestimate the value. 1、 In terms of capital construction chain market, historically, capital construction chain market has a strong sustainability, which often ends when economic indicators stabilize. From the perspective of macro data, finance is usually 3-6 months ahead of economic data; Specifically, in 2018, with the same infrastructure development, the time lag from credit to infrastructure growth stabilization is about 4 months, and there is room for the market of infrastructure chain in the next quarter. 2、 Undervalue repair. The repair of undervalued market often begins when the differentiation between high and low valuations touches the quantile line of 80%, and generally ends when it is reduced to 60%. Easing will accelerate the interpretation of undervalued market. At present, the differentiation degree of high and low valuations is 74.2%, and the repair of undervalued values has not been completed. At the industry level, continue to pay attention to "Yindi insurance" + coal. For the consumer sector concerned by the market, the current market is still in the consensus period of establishing the main line of stable growth, and the liquidity environment does not have the basis for switching. High frequency data also shows that the recovery of consumption is lower than expected. For the consumer sector, you can wait a little longer.

Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is not up to expectations, the macro-economy fluctuates more than expected, the epidemic development is more than expected, and the policy changes are more than expected.

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