The US dollar index rose slightly, the interest rate difference between China and the United States narrowed significantly first and then rebounded, Ted interest rate difference narrowed somewhat, and China’s capital was relaxed first and then tightened. The US dollar index rose slightly last week (20214-20218). As of February 15, 2022, the net long position of the US dollar rebounded. The interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed sharply first and then rebounded. The nominal interest rate of US bonds fluctuated widely, the real interest rate rose slightly, and inflation expectations fell slightly. Overseas, Ted interest rate spread has widened, but it remains low, and the financial liquidity in the United States is still abundant; For China, the inter-bank funds were relaxed first and then tightened, the liquidity stratification was not obvious, and the term spread (10y-1y) narrowed. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of most industries has fallen, among which the trading heat of construction and consumer service sectors is at a relatively high level in history; The volatility of coal, electric power, public utilities, food and beverage sectors is at a historically high level; In terms of research, electronics, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, nonferrous metals, medicine, building materials, new electricity, household appliances and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation sector gradually stabilizes and returns, and the trading sector is the main selling force. Last week (20214-20218), the northward allocation market net bought 9.066 billion yuan, and the northward trading market net sold 12.083 billion yuan of a shares. On a daily basis, the northward allocation sector sold net on Monday (20214), and then continued to buy net; In the northbound trading, net sales continued first, and small purchases were made on Friday (20218). In the industry, the differences between the trading and allocation sectors are still expanding. The consensus is to net buy and transport, light industry and other industries, and net sell machinery, military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and retail, coal and other industries. In terms of style, there are differences in various styles (large / medium / Small Cap Growth / value) of northbound configuration / trading. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 153 million yuan and 124 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 449 million yuan. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in construction, light industry and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions rebounded slightly, but it is still at the low point since 2014. Last week (20214-20218), Liangrong net bought 1.928 billion yuan, mainly in nonferrous metals, construction, chemical industry, banking, computer and other sectors, and mainly sold Dianxin, electronics, food and beverage, medicine, coal and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in banking, nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical, non banking, steel, commerce and retail, communications, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased month on month, and the proportion of financing purchases in each sector was at a historical low. In terms of style, Liangrong net buys the market value and the medium market growth sector, and net sells other styles.
Public offering positions rose slightly, and individual investors redeemed slightly, mainly in the growth sectors such as medicine and new energy. The wide-based ETF mainly held by institutions was still net redeemed. Last week (20214-20218), the A-share position of the active partial share fund increased slightly. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its positions in financial and real estate, computer, military industry, building materials, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, electric power and public utilities, and mainly reduced its positions in medicine, new power, food and beverage, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, media and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were net redeemed, of which broad-based ETFs are still being net redeemed; ETFs mainly held by individuals are slightly net redeemed as a whole, which means that individual investors may redeem funds slightly, and the market may be in a state of “negative feedback” (i.e. “sell up, buy down”). Among them, ETFs related to financial, real estate, military industry and other sectors are mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to medicine, new energy, science and technology and other sectors are net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy financial, real estate, military industry and other sectors, and sell medicine, new energy and other sectors. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys nonferrous metals, construction, building materials, banking, real estate and some TMT sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought steel, transportation, automobile, computer, light industry and other sectors. On the whole, there are still great differences in the market. In terms of industry dimension, the market has a relatively high degree of consensus on buying in light industry, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, building materials, transportation, power and utilities, banks, computers and household appliances; It is worth mentioning that at present, active partial equity funds are gradually buying value sectors such as financial real estate and reducing their holdings in some growth sectors (similar to the behavior of Jimin), which means that the previously relatively fragmented domestic and foreign capital may be gradually converging.
Risk tip: measurement error.
