Since 2000, similar to the current period and two periods of reverse monetary policies between China and the United States, China's economy has weakened and the United States has strengthened, which has maintained an upward trend against the US dollar and RMB, A-Shares fell and US shares rose. However, it is worth noting that the interest rate spread between China and the United States did not narrow. In the early stage of the Fed's interest rate hike, affected by the expectation of interest rate hike, the yield of US bonds soared. After the interest rate hike was implemented, the interest rate fell, which led to a V-shaped trend in the interest rate spread between China and the United States. In the later stage, the market reacted passively to the interest rate hike and narrowed the interest rate spread trend. In the medium and long term, the trend of US bond interest rate shows a positive correlation with us economic performance.
In the past five years, the positive correlation between China US interest rate spread and CSI 300 index has become stronger, and has a certain leadership, which more effectively reflects the strength of China US economy and the changes of overseas liquidity. At present, China's steady growth has not been significantly effective, and the economic heat is weaker than that of the United States. Before the interest rate increase at the next interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in mid March, the 10-year interest rate of US bonds continued the upward trend. The A-share market may not have the ability to act continuously due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States. In addition, the scale of new development funds also decreased significantly year-on-year at the beginning of last year, and the incremental funds are limited. However, at present, the quantile of A-share valuation and risk appetite is not high, and the overall market decline space is also very limited. In mid March, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the US bond interest rate fell, driving the recovery of China US interest rate spread. In addition, China's two sessions will be held at that time, which will continue to release the signal of stimulating economic policy, and the denominator valuation is expected to be repaired to some extent.
It is worth noting that the background of the Fed's interest rate hikes over the years is in the period of high economic prosperity or upward economic prosperity. The interest rate hike itself is to cool the overheated economy, and the purpose of this interest rate hike is mainly to curb the rising inflation rate. Unlike previous years, the United States is currently in the early stage of the decline of high economic prosperity, which means that the Fed's next interest rate hike and table contraction range The frequency is expected to be lower than the radical statement of interest rate increase in the minutes of the January meeting due to taking into account the affordability of the economy. On the other hand, the outbreak period of Omicron, which is the most infectious, has passed, and the accelerated repair of the supply chain is expected to cool the current excessively high inflation rate, which is expected to alleviate the urgency of raising interest rates significantly.
However, US stocks may end the bull market this year when EPS is expected to decline and liquidity is tightened. At the same time, China's economic comparative advantage will take place when the steady growth takes effect in the second quarter or the second half of the year and the social and financial structure is improved, which will drive the interest rate difference between China and the United States to turn upward, and the market rebound has more solid fundamental support.
Risk tip: the tightening of overseas liquidity exceeded expectations, and the economic downturn at home and abroad exceeded expectations
