Key investment points:
In terms of epidemic situation, the global epidemic situation continued to improve, and Europe and the United States relaxed epidemic prevention policies. In the last week, the global epidemic continued to improve, with new confirmed cases and new deaths declining, and the impact of the epidemic on global economic life further weakened. European and American countries adjusted epidemic prevention policies and further relaxed control. California will adopt the method of "endemic epidemic" to deal with covid-19 epidemic, which means gradually abolishing mandatory measures such as home order and mask order. The German government is embarking on a three-stage plan to lift epidemic prevention measures, aiming to remove most restrictions by March 20.
In terms of the stock market, overseas markets generally fell and China rose, and the market is facing a choice of direction. Last week, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the expectation of raising interest rates, overseas markets generally fell. Among them, the Dow Jones index fell 1.90%, the NASDAQ index fell 1.76%, and the S & P 500 index fell 1.58%. The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.07%, the Korean composite index fell slightly by 0.12%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.32%. In sharp contrast to the general decline in overseas markets, A-Shares got rid of the decline in peripheral markets and stepped out of the independent market last week. The Shanghai stock index rose 0.80% and the gem index rose 2.93%. With the rise of Shanghai stock index for two consecutive weeks and the rebound of gem index, the A-share market has basically repaired the panic decline caused by overseas markets before the festival, and the market is facing the choice of direction again.
In the bond market, the main trading line turned to wide credit, and the yield of treasury bonds continued to rise. After the release of the more than expected credit data in January, the main trading line of the bond market gradually shifted to wide credit, and the bond yield continued to rise, with the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rising to 2.80% and the yield of 10-year CDB bonds rising to 3.01%.
In terms of commodities, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is complicated and confusing, with oil falling and gold strengthening. Affected by the uncertain situation in Russia and Ukraine and the insufficient idle capacity of OPEC, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rose and fell last week, but still oscillated at a high level above $90 / barrel. The market's aggressive tightening expectations of the Federal Reserve began to adjust. At the same time, against the background of continued geopolitical conflicts and high inflation, Comex gold rose sharply last week, once exceeding US $1900 / ounce, and silver rose.
In terms of real estate, policies have been continuously strengthened and house prices have improved month on month. In terms of news, from February 21, the four major banks have simultaneously reduced the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the month on month decline in the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities weakened in January. In a series of "steady growth" policies, the market pays particular attention to the real estate policy. With the continuous strengthening of the real estate policy, house prices will gradually stabilize.
With the completion of the short-term rise of the A-share market and the repair of the panic decline before the festival, A-shares are once again facing directional choices. In the market environment of insufficient incremental funds, it is suggested to pay attention to the sectors with marginal improvement of policies in the short term, such as real estate and related industries of Eastern digital Western computing. As for bulk commodities, crude oil still has room to rise in the short term due to geopolitics, insufficient idle capacity of OPEC and weakening impact of the epidemic. Although gold still has allocation value in the medium and long term, it is recommended to catch up cautiously in the short term.
Risk tip: the global epidemic development exceeded expectations, the economic downturn exceeded expectations, the policy promotion was less than expected, the global liquidity contraction exceeded expectations, and the geopolitical conflict exceeded expectations.
