New energy vehicles made a good start, and the sales volume remained high in January. In mid January 2022, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sales volume was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8% and a month on month decrease of 18.6%; In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 17%, with a year-on-year increase of 10 PCT and a month on month decrease of 2 PCT. On the whole, new energy vehicles made a good start at the beginning of the year. The market still maintained a high prosperity in January, and the impact of seasonal factors on the market is relatively limited. In the case of rising upstream raw material prices and continued strong downstream demand, some auto enterprises have begun to brewing product price increases. In the follow-up, we still need to pay close attention to the impact of price increases on consumer demand and the impact of lack of core on the supply side of auto enterprises. It is estimated that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales will be about 5.5 million in 22 years.
In January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9% and a month on month decrease of 38.3%. Since July 21, with the cost performance advantage of the post subsidy era, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery has exceeded that of ternary battery for seven consecutive months. At present, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise and the increase is higher than that of lithium hydroxide, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate is high. The high nickel ternary material with lithium hydroxide as raw material is expected to narrow the cost gap with lithium iron, superimposed with the pursuit of energy density of high-end models. It is expected that the installed proportion of high nickel ternary material is expected to increase significantly in 22 years.
Industry trends: Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached a capital increase agreement; As of January 22, the number of charging piles in China was 2.731 million, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%; Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) release performance express:; Last week, the share price of new energy automobile industry chain company rebounded, and the net value of new energy theme fund rose.
Investment suggestion: with the strengthening of policy and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration, and the industry boom is rising. It is suggested to pay attention to the main line of new forces represented by Tesla and the catch-up process of new models such as Volkswagen, and recommend leading and second-line elastic targets. In terms of the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK), Geely Automobile (0175. HK) and Xiaopeng automobile (9868. HK) are highly recommended; In terms of battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) are recommended; In terms of motor electric control, it is recommended to pay attention to Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; For lithium battery equipment, it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; In terms of lithium and cobalt, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Risk tips: 1. The growth rate of electric vehicle production and sales slows down. With the continuous growth of the production and sales base of new energy vehicles, it will be more and more difficult to maintain a high growth rate, and the introduction of mainstream models for the public has become the key; 2. The price war in the industrial chain intensified. The continuous decline of subsidies and the continuous investment of new production capacity have led to the pressure of price reduction in all links of the industrial chain; 3. The influx of overseas competitors accelerated. With the growth of the Chinese market and the dilution of subsidy policies, the pace of overseas giants entering the Chinese market is accelerating, which has a new impact on the industrial pattern.
