Core view
The two sessions will be held soon, and the policy window will open. In recent years, the government work reports of the two sessions have repeatedly involved "energy conservation and emission reduction", "optimizing the energy structure", "developing renewable energy", "promoting new energy vehicles" and so on. The fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress and the fifth session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference are scheduled to be held in Beijing on March 5 and March 4, 2022 to ensure steady economic growth and favorable policies related to new energy are expected to release more positive signals than expected to the market.
After combing the trend of Shanghai Composite Index and new energy index of power equipment before and after the two sessions in recent 15 years, we found that the rising probability from the Spring Festival to the closing of the two sessions was 53.3% and 60% respectively, and the rising probability one month after the closing of the two sessions was 73.3% and 46.7%. The two sessions are worth looking forward to.
From expectation driven to performance driven. After the establishment of the "double carbon" goal, relevant policies at home and abroad continued to increase, and the heat of the new energy sector continued to rise. Both new energy vehicles and new energy power generation industry have gone through the transition period from expectation driven to performance driven from 2020 to 2021. In the context of high demand, 2021 will be a year to fully verify the enterprise's product power, customer structure, supply chain security, cost control, development strategy and so on. In 2022, we believe that the investment line of "performance is king" will run through the whole year. It is recommended to select the first and second tier leaders with sustained high performance.
The valuation fell to a low level, and it is suggested to lay out lithium battery, energy storage and power grid sectors. Since December last year, Dianxin sector has experienced a sharp decline. At present, the index has fallen by about 20%, and the valuation is lower than the historical median, so it has strong allocation value.
Lithium battery has high growth and strong certainty. Battery faucets Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014. SZ) are recommended. It is suggested to grasp two main lines in the material link: expand new customers overseas, recommend Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073. SZ), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (300919. SZ), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (002850. SZ), etc; Tight supply and demand, strong bargaining power, recommended Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812. SZ), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (300769. SZ), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) (600884. SH), Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) (300035. SZ), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (688116. SH), etc.
Energy storage is a key link in energy transformation. It is recommended that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274sz), Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) (688063. SH), Hemai Co., Ltd. (688032. SH), etc.
In the context of "steady growth", in line with the great development of new energy, the power grid has ushered in a golden development period. The new power infrastructure will be steadily promoted during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the digital transformation of power grid will deeply embrace new technologies and models. It is recommended that State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) (600131. SH) and Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (600406. SH) under the State Grid, which have obvious barriers in the field of information automation.
Risk warning: the risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The shortage of resource products or parts leads to the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials and difficult operation of enterprises.
