Core view
Weekly performance of the sector: in the past two weeks, CSI 300 rose by 1.92%, gem index fell by 2.82%, food and beverage (CITIC) index rose by 3.14%, with a relative return of 1.22% compared with CSI 300, ranking 19th among CITIC’s 29 sub industries. Among the molecular sectors, the meat products sector fell by 0.62% in the past two weeks, the seasoning sector rose by 2.75% in the past two weeks, the snack food sector rose by 0.91% in the past two weeks, the quick-frozen food sector fell by 2.98% in the past two weeks, and other food sectors rose by 1.72% in the past two weeks.
Sector valuation level: the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector this week reached 39.59x, higher than the 8-year average (37.50x) and the 5-year average (38.79x). The valuation of the sector rose slightly this week compared with the previous period. Among them, the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack foods / quick-frozen foods / other foods is 23.53/61.27/35.39/39.41/28.95 times respectively, which is -6.31% / 15.59% / – 10.59% / – 57.25% / – 39.14% higher than the 8-year average valuation respectively. The valuation of condiments is higher than the historical level, and the meat products, snack foods, quick-frozen foods and other foods are at a historically low level.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price rise in the past two weeks are Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) / Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) / Wanzhou International / Christine; The five stocks with high weekly average turnover rate are Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) / Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) ; The five stocks with high trading volume are Wanzhou International / Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) / Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) .
Industry highlights: 1) palm oil prices hit a new high, and global food prices are facing the risk of further rise; 2) General Administration of market supervision: 869 centralized supervision warehouses have been built in China to prevent the risk of imported cold chain food.
Reminder of later important matters: convening of extraordinary general meeting: Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697)
Investment proposal and investment object
In the past two weeks, the overall share price of the sector has risen, but the performance of sub industries has been divided. At present, the industry demand is still at the bottom and the subsequent recovery is still uncertain. We still maintain the annual strategic view and suggest paying attention to the reform results on the supply side; With the gradual emergence of reform results and the gradual recovery of the industry from the trough, individual companies may usher in the performance inflection point in the annual report and the first quarterly report. It is suggested to grasp the allocation opportunity.
Condiments: the share price of the food sector has risen in the past two weeks, mainly due to the adjustment of the market’s allocation ideas of the food sector. 1) On the demand side, the recovery trend of the industry remains to be seen. In December, the social zero catering data fell year-on-year, the Spring Festival sales were slightly weak, and February to march was the off-season for condiment sales. On the whole, there is still a certain pressure on the demand level of the industry, and it is expected that it will take some time for inventory digestion; From the perspective of price increase implementation, Haitian is superior to its peers in terms of price increase speed due to its high price increase time and obvious advantages of industry leaders; Li Jinji, Zhongju, etc. are facing certain inventory pressure due to the late implementation time of price increase, and the implementation of favorable price is not clear; On the cost side, soybean, soybean meal and white granulated sugar, the main materials of the industry, are still at a high level, and the weekly improvement is not obvious. Among them, the price of soybean meal is rising month on month, and the decline of cost remains to be seen. 2) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) update: on the one hand, the company’s share price has been corrected recently, which has raised concerns due to the upward trend of molasses price. However, we believe that the change of molasses price is still within the expected range, so there is no need to worry too much, but we still need to keep close tracking. In the short term, ① this is the natural rise of molasses price caused by the change of supply-demand relationship after the sugar factory gradually stops pressing, which is still within the expectation; (2) at present, the price of alcohol has not risen sharply, such as the sharp rise in early 21, and alcohol manufacturers are also facing the pressure of rising cost of energy and other costs. Before the survey, we also feedback that the current profit of the molasses alcohol manufacturers is relatively thin and the operating rate is not high. ③ However, in the long term, it is recommended to keep tracking because the current corn price and oil price are still high, or support the subsequent molasses price. On the other hand, it is suggested that the company should pay attention to the current situation of RMB appreciation or the continuous impact on the company’s profits. On the whole, the company’s sector is still one of the best sectors in the food sector, such as product attributes and industry pattern. Under the cost pressure, the company’s strong pricing power continues to be realized, providing certainty for the business performance of 22 years; In addition, the company has recently issued announcements on overseas expansion and hydrolyzed sugar projects. Under the pressure of the industry, the company’s reform is unprecedented and the long-term development strategy is advancing steadily, laying a good foundation for development in 23 years and beyond. It is recommended to continue to pay attention. 3) At the current time point, on the one hand, we still suggest to grasp the relevant investment opportunities of the price increase theme. We suggest to pay attention to the individual stocks that have a smooth implementation of the price increase due to the industry pattern and product characteristics in the second stage and have little impact on the sales volume, as well as the individual stocks that are more likely to fall in the cost in the third stage, have greater profit elasticity after the cost fall, and are expected to retain the price increase effect, Such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298, buy); On the other hand, we suggest to pay attention to the de inventory and favorable price of condiment channels and grasp the corresponding allocation opportunities.
Snack food: 22 years is a year in which the reform achievements of Companies in the industry gradually appear. Due to the pressure of the industry in 20 to 21 years (channel reform, rising costs, etc.), companies in the industry have made strategic adjustment and positive reform. It is suggested to pay attention to the potential unexpected opportunities brought by the melody of industrial reform and grasp two main investment lines: 1) it is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks with marginal improvement due to the reform (implementation of price increase policy, positive channel expansion, large volume of new products, etc.), such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557, buy), Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) (002847, buy), Three Squirrels Inc(300783) (300783, not rated), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) the price increase is relatively smooth, It is expected to contribute to 21q4 revenue; Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) the results of channel expansion (expansion of new channels such as circulation channels and busy snacks) and product promotion (mainly promoting spicy brine and deep-sea snacks, and making efforts to load products quantitatively) have begun to show; Three Squirrels Inc(300783) launch offline channels (stores & new distribution system). The monthly purchase sales of the new distribution system exceeded 400 million yuan in December of the 21st year, and the sales of offline stores exceeded 1.6 billion yuan (YoY + 33%) in the 21st year; 2) Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) (603719, overweight) has shown good business robustness under the pressure of the industry in 21 years (for example, the omni-channel layout mode hedges the negative impact of channel fragmentation and channel flow change, and the omni category layout mode suppresses the negative impact of the life cycle of leisure food under the background of diversified demand). It is optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to it.
Quick frozen food: due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand of catering end in peak season and the prices of raw materials such as oil, flour and soybean protein are still high, and there is some resistance to product price increase due to intensified competition. It is expected that there will still be pressure on industry companies in the first quarter. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215, Unrated) that is expected to benefit from the recovery of catering in the short term and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345, overweight) with prominent valuation and cost performance.
Halogen products: it is recommended to continue to pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (603517, buy). The company’s recent investment actions are frequent, focusing on the tracks in the halogen flavor, catering and other capacity circles. The second growth curve is explored steadily, and the long-term development space is expected to be further opened. At present, the valuation is at a low historical point, and the position can be increased by choosing the opportunity; It is suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya (01458, not rated) who is in the process of franchise and supply chain optimization.
Baking and tea raw materials: at present, the price of oil and other raw materials is still at a high level, but the strong demand in the downstream determines that expanding production capacity and seizing market share is the main line of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973, not rated) and the supplier of tea fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) (605300, not rated). Risk statement
Rising raw material costs, intensifying industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
