\u3000\u3000 Nanya New Material Technology Co.Ltd(688519) (688519)
The company released the 2021 performance express, which brought high year-on-year growth rate due to capacity expansion and maintained the “buy” rating
The company released the performance express for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 4.21 billion yuan, yoy + 98.4%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 400 million yuan, yoy + 193.1%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent of 360 million yuan, yoy + 242.0%. Taking into account the decline in the price of copper clad laminate, we lowered our previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.21/54.9/70.3 (the previous value is 4.65/62.2/78.2) billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 4.0/4.9/6.3 (the previous value is 4.7 / 6.0 / 7.7) billion, yoy + 192.2% / 24.4% / 27.0%, EPS will be RMB 1.69/2.11/2.68, and the current share price corresponds to 23.5/18.9/14.9 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, The company’s production expansion and product upgrading support steady growth, which is conducive to the improvement of operational efficiency, the reduction of manufacturing cost, the rise of profitability and the maintenance of “buy” rating.
The peak season of 2021q4 is not prosperous, which leads to the decline of copper clad laminate price and affects the month on month performance
2021q4 company achieved a single quarter operating revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, yoy + 55.7% / qoq-11.1%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 77 million yuan, yoy + 67.4% / qoq-23.8%, and a single quarter net interest rate of 7.4%, down 1.2pct from 2021q3. The peak season of 2021q4 is not prosperous, resulting in high raw material costs and shrinking profits in the copper clad laminate link. Due to the early overdraft of orders for medium and low-end consumer products, in fact, consumer terminal goods press the port, affecting PCB order scheduling, resulting in the decline of the price of general-purpose fr-4-based copper clad laminate. Throughout the year, the company achieved capacity scale growth through the commissioning of Jiangxi N4 new plant, which promoted the sharp rise of operating revenue. Benefiting from the efficiency advantages of the new plant and the promotion of the industry boom, the net interest rate reached 9.5% in 2021, yoy + 1.1pct.
Efficiency advantage and technical capability are the focus of the next stage. The company’s endogenous optimization and product upgrading
The high price of products dominated by FR-4 has passed. In the medium and long term, we should still focus on the efficiency advantages and high-level product capabilities among manufacturers. On the one hand, the matching of PCB industry forces the upstream domestic CCL manufacturers to expand their production, and the pace of matching of domestic manufacturers is accelerated. The new factories still need to compete for production line planning and production efficiency. The products represented by FR-4 are still focused on cost competition. The company’s Jiangxi N5 factory has been in the state of commissioning since January, which is expected to promote the cost downward. On the other hand, the domestic substitution of copper clad laminates has entered a new stage. The head manufacturers have opened up territory in the subdivided fields such as IC carrier materials monopolized by Japanese and Taiwan manufacturers, and the company’s BT products are expected to follow up the pace of domestic substitution.
Risk tip: the weakening of downstream demand leads to the lower than expected expansion of the company, the decline of copper clad laminate price leads to the loss of profitability, the price rise of upstream raw materials erodes the cost, and the competition in the high-speed copper clad laminate industry intensifies
