The investment and construction of global 5g equipment is entering a peak period.
On February 21, at the mwc2022 pre communication meeting, Gan bin, vice president and chief marketing officer of Huawei’s wireless network product line, told reporters including China first finance that more than 200 5g networks have been officially commercial in the world. In the network construction of operators, 5g network construction modes in different markets are different, and TDD large bandwidth combined with massivemimo has been the consensus of the industry.
Despite the impact of external pressure such as chips, Huawei still hopes to maintain rapid iteration in 5g technology. At the communication meeting on the same day, Huawei released the third-generation massivemimo, including the third-generation metaaau and the third-generation bladeaau series products.
According to the reporter, massive MIMO (large-scale antenna technology) is the key technology to improve the system capacity and spectrum efficiency in the fifth generation mobile communication (5g). This technology is also one of the key technologies for Huawei to distance itself from its friends on 5g in the past.
Gan Bin said that the value of 5g large bandwidth and multi antenna has been realized, and Huawei’s innovation for large bandwidth and multi antenna will not stop. Compared with the 192 antenna array of the second generation massivemimo, the third generation massivemimo adopts 384 antenna array.
In addition, as the bearer of adn (automatic driving network) in the wireless network, Huawei has proposed a new generation of wireless network architecture intelligent ran, which will help the wireless network shift from operation and maintenance automation to network intelligence.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) according to the analysis, the future autonomous driving network will bring far-reaching changes to the existing network architecture and operation and maintenance mode, and Huawei’s autonomous driving network strategy (ADN) is a strategy for the next decade after Huawei’s all cloud strategy.
From the perspective of the industrial development path of autopilot network, Huawei believes that within 3 to 5 years (autopilot), the network should have the ability of perception and analysis, and AI can fully assist people in decision-making. In 5 to 7 years, the network will realize preliminary autonomy and make the network highly self-decision-making in some networks and business scenarios. In 7 ~ 10 years, the industry will jointly challenge the ultimate goals of self decision-making and self evolution in the whole scene and life cycle of the network.
The report on the global overall telecommunications equipment market in the third quarter of 2021 released by the market research company delloro group shows that the overall telecommunications equipment market has achieved year-on-year growth for six consecutive quarters, while the overall global market share of leading suppliers remained relatively stable from 2020 to the first three quarters of 2021, with top 7 suppliers accounting for about 80% of the total market. Among them, Huawei accounts for 29%, Ericsson and Nokia 15%, Zte Corporation(000063) 11%.
However, in the global 5g network landing, the problems caused by spectrum auction, network construction cost and network migration also make the sustainable development of 5g full of challenges.
Yang Guang, director of wireless network services at strategy analytics, told reporters that at present, the number of 5g base stations deployed in China accounts for about 70% of the global total. Excluding the Chinese market, 5g networks in other markets around the world are more concentrated in island coverage in areas with high traffic. A small number of operators have achieved more common network coverage, but mainly rely on the deployment of medium and low frequency band, and their user experience has not been significantly improved compared with 4G.
“In the consumer market, the demand for 5g is not obvious. Operators generally place their hopes on the 5g industry market, but the development of the industry market has its own rules and may require a longer cycle.” Yang Guang told reporters.
In addition, restricting Chinese manufacturers from participating in global 5g competition has also brought great pressure on the cost of 5g network construction everywhere.
On February 8, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) reported that the total amount of funds applied by operators to replace Chinese network equipment was US $5.6 billion, almost three times the US $1.9 billion allocated by the government.
According to previous research by the Oxford Research Institute, the restrictions on China’s telecom equipment suppliers entering the 5G infrastructure market in the UK will lead to a 9%~29% increase in the deployment cost of the relevant network in the next ten years. In the whole European network, excluding Huawei, the cost may reach 3 billion euros per year, and the cost increases by 19% per year. Meanwhile, 56 million people will delay using 5g by 2023. Due to the potential delay of 5g launch, the permanent loss of GDP is estimated to be 40 billion euros by 2035.
