The “darkest hour” of the breeding industry continues.
On February 21, Zhuo Chuang information data showed that the overall profit of piglet fattening in 2022 showed a downward trend.
Shao jianlo, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang, introduced in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that from the monitored national data, the fattening profit of 7kg piglets has changed from negative to positive since November 4, 2021, with an average profit of 18.41 yuan per head. At the beginning of January 2022, the highest profit of fattening piglets was 92.38 yuan / head, but by January 10, the average profit of 7kg piglets turned from positive to negative, and by February 14, it reached the lowest point of this year, with a loss of 313.70 yuan / head. According to the data monitored on February 21, the average head loss was 253.17 yuan.
Although the Spring Festival stock at the beginning of the year was boosted, the strength was limited. The decline of pig price led to the decline of fattening profit value. With the large number of small weight pigs in the market and the slight increase in the cost of feed raw materials, the profit loss of piglet fattening is exacerbated.
“The price fluctuation of piglets is related to the price fluctuation of pigs. In the previous research, the industry estimated that the price trend of piglets will improve slightly after January this year, but at present, there are few piglets from large breeding enterprises, the transaction in the piglet market is general, the delivery of some pig breeding companies is not ideal, and the supplement column does not reach the expected level.” Shao jianlo told the reporter of Securities Daily that in the survey in February, the industry’s attitude of looking forward to rising was obvious, but the prices of piglets and pigs were at a loss. “If the price of pigs does not rise, the market bullish expectation is not strong, and the price of piglets is difficult to rise.”
From the situation of listed companies, the operation of breeding enterprises this year is not optimistic. As of February 21, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and other listed companies have released sales data in January. According to the data, the operating pressure caused by the decline of sales price is still on.
According to the announcement, 416500 pigs were sold in January, with a sales revenue of 608 million yuan. Among them, the sales volume decreased by 8.16% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 36.16%; Sales revenue decreased by 23.71% month on month and 48.78% year-on-year; The average weight of commercial fat pigs is 113.22 kg, and the average sales price is 13.6 yuan / kg.
Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) mentioned that at present, the company mainly has business segments such as “transgenic biotechnology, corn and rice seed industry and plant protection, pigs and feed, animal protection and vaccine”. The above sales only represent the sales of pigs of the company and the breeding platform participated in and controlled by the company, and the operation of other business segments is not included. The risk of pig market price fluctuation is the systematic risk of the whole pig production industry. For any pig producer, it is an objective and uncontrollable external risk. The sharp fluctuation (decline or rise) of pig market price may have a significant impact on the company’s operating performance.
Zhu danpeng, an analyst of China’s food industry, told the Securities Daily that under the background of the pig cycle, the losses of breeding enterprises are difficult to avoid in the short term, which requires a scientific analysis of the stock volume to accurately meet the needs of the market. In addition, “some leading enterprises have also tried the mode of walking on two legs at the b-end and C-end to reduce risks and improve cycle profits. The risk at the C-end is relatively large, but the effect is obvious.” Zhu danpeng said.
