· editor's note ·
Age, income and gender will affect investment decisions. For example, older investors are more prone to excessive investment sentiment; The style of male investors is more radical than that of female investors; Compared with low-income groups, high-income groups are more willing to allocate equity products; Investors who have invested for more than 8 years have a more radical style than those who have invested for less than 2 years. This is the conclusion of the report on the development of China's asset management industry made by Ba Shusong, managing director of the Hong Kong stock exchange.
Ba Shusong mentioned in the report that according to the survey of 3126 individual investors, investors with low investment behavior deviation are more likely to obtain high returns. The requirement for each of us is to find an investment strategy in line with our own personality and cooperate with strict discipline. The ultimate significance of investment is to prepare for important life plans such as education and pension.
The significance of this study also lies in that the data can help institutional development. The behavioral characteristics and patterns of Chinese investors are the underlying logic of the future development of asset management. Guide the asset management industry to the general direction of serving more people.
the following are selected chapters:
investment sentiment, investment behavior and Income Differentiation Characteristics of individual investors
Investment sentiment is closely related to investment behavior and investment income. The strength of investment sentiment will be reflected in investors' investment behavior, and the rationality of investment behavior will directly affect investment income. According to the investigation and analysis of 3126 individual investors randomly selected, the investment sentiment, investment behavior and investment income of individual investors from 2019 to 2020 generally show the following characteristics: first, there is a significant increase in fund investors, and both income and withdrawal are better than stock investors. Second, the risk preference of bank financial investors is low, but they often have high expectations of bank financial returns, and there is a certain deviation between the two. Third, nearly 50% of investors expect to increase investment in 2021, but older investors hold a negative attitude towards changing the current situation and are more willing to maintain the existing investment proportion in the future.
fund investors increased significantly, and the income distribution was better than that of stocks
As shown in Figure 5-1, compared with 2019, the proportion of investors in various asset management products has been differentiated in 2020. Compared with 2019, the proportion of trust investors has not changed significantly, the proportion of investors in stocks and bank financial products has increased slightly, and the proportion of fund investors has increased significantly. In 2020, 45.87% of investors participated in fund product investment, with a year-on-year increase of 44.26%. In fact, this has something to do with the rise of the equity market in 2020, which has improved the enthusiasm of investors to participate in fund investment. It is worth noting that although it is also affected by the equity market, the number of stock investors has not increased significantly compared with 2019, and more individual investors still choose to share market dividends through fund products.
From the perspective of investment income, most individual investors' stock and fund investment have achieved positive income, accounting for 70.08% and 80.55% respectively. However, from the perspective of income range and the proportion of loss investors, investors' fund investment is better than stock investment (as shown in Figure 5-2). It can be seen that more and more individual investors recognize the importance of investment institutionalization and pay attention to and participate in the investment of fund products. The process of "decentralization" of the market is expected to be further accelerated.
investors have higher expectations for the return of bank financial products than risk appetite
The survey shows that in 2020, the trust investment income obtained the highest proportion of satisfaction, and 65.57% of trust investors were "satisfied" and "very satisfied" with the investment income. The superficial analysis found that this has a certain relationship with the risk attribute and industry pattern of trust investors. Most individual investors buy trust products for the purpose of maintaining value first and increasing value second. With the scarcity of trust products on sale, individual investors' expectation of the income of trust products decreases, and trust products are relatively easy to meet the psychological expectations of investors. The ranking of investors' income satisfaction of other products is funds (47.70%), bank financial products (39.25%) and stocks (35.99%) (as shown in Figure 5-3).
According to the risk preference of investors, although more investors are conservative in the investment of bank financial products, and the proportion of investors who do not want to lose their principal reaches 52.63% (as shown in Figure 5-4), investors have higher expectations for the income of bank financial products. Most investors believe that the income of bank financial products is "average", This means that there is a certain degree of inequality between the income expectation of investors in bank financial products and their own risk appetite. The investor's perception of the stock does not match his own expectation. In addition, the risk appetite of fund investors is similar to that of stock investors, or even more conservative. It is not surprising that fund investors are satisfied with the fund return in 2020 when the fund return is generally considerable in 2020.
older investors prefer to maintain the existing investment ratio
On the issue of whether to increase investment in 2021, nearly 50% of investors choose to "increase" their investment in various products and are optimistic about the return brought by the development of asset management market in 2021. However, about 70% of investors' investment increased by 0 ~ 6%, indicating that individual investors are optimistic but still cautious (as shown in Figure 5-5). In addition, there has also been some differentiation in each asset management segment. The proportion of investors who "reduce investment" in the stock market is higher, and the proportion of investors who "increase investment" in the fund market is higher, while the mainstream investment direction of the trust market remains unchanged.
Through the analysis of investors of different ages of the fund, it can be seen that among the respondents who increase or decrease their investment, young investors are more likely to take positive actions to change the current state and make investment decisions in line with their expectations, while older investors tend to adopt a static investment attitude (as shown in Figure 5-6).
At the same time, among stock investors, older investors with a higher proportion will significantly reduce their stock positions (as shown in Figure 5-7). This also reflects that compared with young investors, older investors will be more cautious. When the market is good, they will reduce their positions or maintain their existing positions to deal with the potential pullback risk.
analysis on the causes of investment sentiment, investment behavior and Income Differentiation of individual investors
individual investors in the stock market are more likely to have behavior deviation
On the one hand, as the final result of a series of investment decisions, investment income is bound to be affected by the deviation of investment behavior. According to the questionnaire survey results of the research group, whether it is stock investment or fund investment, investment behavior deviation has a relatively obvious reverse impact on investment income. Individual investors with low investment behavior deviation are more likely to obtain higher investment income (as shown in Figure 5-8 and figure 5-9).
From the perspective of horizontal comparison, stock investors have more serious behavior deviation in disposal effect and reversal effect. This is one of the reasons for the differentiation of stock investment and fund investment income mentioned above.
On the other hand, investors with higher return on stock investment have lower behavior bias in disposal effect and reversal effect, and in these things, behavior bias is often the biggest advantage of fund investment over stock investment, which further confirms that the disadvantage of individual investors' investment leads to the performance of low return, Investment institutionalization can make up for the lack of retail investment to a certain extent and bring more considerable investment income.
The proportion of market value held by institutional investors has shown a steady upward trend in recent years, especially in 2020. According to the statistics of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research department, in the first half of 2020, the proportion of total market value held by institutional investors (excluding foreign capital) to the total market value has reached 15.33% (as shown in figure 5-10). It can be predicted that institutional investors will have deeper participation in the market in the future, promote each other and grow together with individual investors and China's capital market.
older investors are more prone to complacency bias
From the perspective of risk appetite, older investors have higher risk tolerance and stronger risk appetite than younger investors. Among the older investors, the proportion of conservative investors and risk averse investors reached 51.32%, while the proportion of young investors was 58.41% (as shown in Figure 5-12). However, according to the survey results, it can be seen that older investors are more willing to maintain their existing investment, and there is a certain deviation between investment behavior and risk preference.
From the perspective of behavioral finance, older investors are more prone to behavioral bias than younger investors (as shown in Figure 5-13). To sum up, the attitude of maintaining existing investment is not a sign of conservatism of older investors, but a manifestation of behavioral bias.
Complacency bias refers to a phenomenon that individuals tend to do nothing and maintain current or previous decisions when making decisions. The psychological mechanism of this phenomenon mainly includes loss avoidance and regret theory. Loss avoidance means that investors will give the latter greater weight when considering the potential benefits brought by changing behavior and the potential losses brought by not changing behavior, which will lead to the appearance of investors' inaction. Regret theory means that investors are more worried about the regret brought by changing the status quo, and the degree of regret will be amplified under the catalysis of past experience.
From the perspective of reality, the market growth in 2020 is concentrated in large market capitalization white horse stocks. Although the growth is relatively high, older investors are more willing to believe in the long-term value of these stocks without rational judgment and express confidence in their past earnings, which is also the various investment behavior deviations reflected in Figure 5-13, It ignores whether the increase is the factor of large-scale release of liquidity or performance support, and then shows complacency and inaction.
theoretical discussion on investment emotion, investment behavior and Income Differentiation
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the rise of investor sentiment has brought considerable benefits to individual investors, intensified the income differentiation between individual investors and institutional investors, reduced the occurrence of behavior deviation, and realized the positive cycle acceleration of the "decentralization" process. However, the excessive rise of investor sentiment will lead to the valuation bubble in the stock market, and there will also be a certain degree of differentiation in investment behavior between senior and young investors. So what are the characteristics of reasonable investor sentiment?
First, determine how to determine that the investment sentiment is reasonable. We focus on the index of investment proportion of high-risk assets. According to the classic "100 minus age rule", the investment proportion of high-risk assets should be equal to the value obtained by 100 minus age, while the investment proportion of high-risk assets and age are calculated based on the median value of each option, If the investor's allocation proportion of high-risk assets exceeds the reference allocation proportion, it is deemed that the high-risk assets are over allocated and the investment sentiment is too high.
From the perspective of irrational behavior, investors with high investment sentiment are more likely to have behavior deviation than investors with normal investment sentiment, whether in stocks or funds. In terms of overconfidence, investors with high investment sentiment will be more serious, which also shows that investors with high investor sentiment are often manifested in cognitive bias and herding, but they will be more rational about their own investment returns (as shown in Figure 5-14 and figure 5-15).
From the perspective of income, investors with high investment sentiment are more likely to obtain high returns in 2020 (as shown in Figure 5-16 and figure 5-17), which is related to the investment strategy of configuring popular themes. Investors with high investment sentiment have enjoyed higher group dividends due to behavior deviation in the past year. This is precisely an important signal of market adjustment.
So what are the characteristics of investors with high investment sentiment? We use the logistic model for the corresponding analysis. The dependent variable is used to describe whether the sample has too high investment sentiment. 1 means yes and 0 means No. Independent variables include age, educational background, gender, whether it is a city in the Yangtze River Delta / Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area / Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region (hereinafter referred to as "city"), total household assets, personal after tax income and investment years.
Firstly, through univariate analysis, t-test was conducted on the independent variables of the two groups of data (with and without excessive investment emotion behavior), and the variables with significant statistical significance were preliminarily screened. The results of univariate analysis are shown in Table 5-1.
Through univariate analysis, we select age, gender, personal after tax income and investment years as independent variables for regression analysis to further explore the user characteristics affecting investment sentiment. The model test shows that the model is generally significant, and the goodness of fit of the model is good. The regression results are shown in table 5-2.
It can be seen from the regression results that compared with investors aged 51 ~ 65, the probability of excessive investment emotion of investors aged 41 ~ 50 and 31 ~ 40 is 0.389 and 0.397. Older investors are more prone to excessive investment emotion, which is consistent with the high degree of behavior deviation in the previous analysis; Male investors are 2.058 times more likely to have high investment sentiment than female investors, and their investment style is more radical; Compared with low-income groups, investors with personal after tax income of 300000-1 million yuan (inclusive) and 1-5 million yuan (inclusive) have a high probability of high investment sentiment of 2.797 and 5.786, and high-income groups are more likely to allocate equity products; From the perspective of investment life, with the extension of investment time, individual investors are more likely to have excessive investment emotion. The probability of excessive investment emotion of investors with an investment life of more than 8 years is 4.796 times that of investors with an investment life of less than 2 years. On the whole, investors with high investment sentiment are male investors with old age, long investment years and high income. Such investors are more likely to have high allocation of equity assets.
under the background of accelerated aging, it is more necessary to strengthen the rational guidance of older investors
In the context of China's accelerated aging, older investors are increasingly concerned by financial institutions. Compared with young investors, older investors have more abundant primitive wealth accumulation. At the same time, the needs of older investors will also be personalized and diversified, especially the wealth needs of inheritance and pension will lead to more innovation from the product side, In the face of such a huge base and demand, all kinds of asset management institutions will increase the competition for older customers. In the analysis of this chapter, older investors are more willing to accept large fluctuations in principal, which is more likely to lead to complacency bias. In fact, due to the existence of behavior deviation, the investment sentiment of older investors is also easy to rise, which is contrary to the life cycle of older investors. Older investors are in the middle and later stage of the life cycle, and the demand for steady appreciation of wealth is higher than the demand for substantial appreciation of wealth, but it is greatly affected by the development of capital market.
Therefore, asset management institutions should pay more attention to the rational guidance of middle-aged and long-term investors in their own customer base, and smooth the irrational induction of capital market development to investors. On the one hand, asset management institutions can carry out targeted investor education for older investors, especially in the stage of capital market adjustment and the consequences of behavior deviation, so as to give older investors more convenient position adjustment actions; On the other hand, asset management institutions should timely pay attention to the dynamic changes of risk preference of older investors, timely and continuously accompany the rise of risk preference, give clearer risk tips for investment behavior that does not meet the requirements of older investors, and apply one-stop investment advisory services such as intelligent investment adviser to the asset allocation scheme of older investors, Improve the product matching of older investors.
