Last week, the central bank made a net return of 150 billion yuan in the open market, the MLF continued to work in excess, and the money market interest rate rose; Short and long-term treasury bond yields rose. In the stock market, there is a net outflow of funds from the north and a net inflow of financing funds; The scale of newly established funds decreased, the net outflow of ETFs, the net reduction of major shareholders increased, the scale of IPO decreased, and the liquidity of the stock market decreased. From the perspective of investor preference, northward capital increased its positions in electrical equipment, transportation, banks, etc., and financed net purchases of non-ferrous metals, chemicals and architectural decoration; Wide index ETFs are all net redemptions, with more subscription of securities companies and more redemption of pharmaceutical ETFs. The mainstream expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in March returned to 25bp, the US dollar index rebounded, the RMB appreciated relative to the US dollar, and the risk appetite of overseas markets decreased.
core view
in January, the scale of private placement expanded against the trend, and the opening of accounts by individual investors decreased slightly. the scale of private securities investment funds was 6.34 trillion, an increase of 219.27 billion yuan compared with the previous period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45.61%, and the growth rate continued to slow down. In January, 2681 private equity investment funds were newly filed, with a corresponding scale of 40.121 billion yuan, down 59.47% month on month. However, in the context of the sharp withdrawal of the market in January, the increase in the scale of securities private placement management is significantly higher than the new filing scale of securities private placement. Therefore, it can be speculated that private placement investors may have additional investment after the market decline. In January, 1.3211 million natural person A-share accounts were added, slightly down from 1.3688 million in the previous month, which is at the upper middle level of history. Therefore, in the process of market decline in January, the enthusiasm of individual investors for opening accounts did not decline significantly.
last week (February 14-february 18), the central bank returned 150 billion yuan of net reverse repo, including 100 billion yuan of net investment in excess renewal of MLF; There will be 50 billion yuan of reverse repo due in the next week.
money market interest rates rose, short-term and long-term treasury bond yields rose, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuance interest rates fell. as of February 18, R007 rose 13.4bp, dr007 rose 11.2bp, the yield of one-year treasury bond rose 5.9bp, the yield of 10-year Treasury bond rose 0.8bp, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit decreased by 333.37 billion yuan, and the interest rate of 1m / 3m / 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased.
in the stock market, the liquidity of A-share market decreased, and the liquidity index of China Merchants A-share was -5.40. capital outflow from the north, with a net outflow of 2.4 billion yuan; The financing balance increased, and the net purchase of financing funds was 1.93 billion yuan; The net outflow of ETF was 10.39 billion yuan; The shares of newly established partial stock public funds decreased. The net reduction scale of important shareholders increased, and the announced planned reduction scale decreased.
from the perspective of investor preference, the industries with higher net purchase scale of land stock connect include electrical equipment, transportation, banking, etc., and the industries with higher net sales scale are non bank finance, electronics, medicine and biology, etc; those who buy more financing funds are non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building decoration, etc. , and those who sell more net include electrical equipment, food and beverage, electronics, etc. In terms of individual stocks, land stock connect has the most net purchases of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) and the highest net sales of Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ; Financiers significantly increased their positions Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and those who sold more were Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) . wide index ETFs are net redemptions, of which gem (including gem 50) ETFs have the most redemptions; There are half of ETF applications for redemption in the industry, among which there are more applications for ETF by securities companies and more redemptions of pharmaceutical ETF. the highest net subscription is the ETF of Cathay Pacific China Securities Co., Ltd; The highest net redemption is Huabao CSI medical ETF.
in the overseas market, the mainstream expectation of the Fed's interest rate increase in March returned to 25bp, the US dollar index rebounded, the short-end US bond yield fell, the long-end US bond yield remained unchanged from the previous period, and the RMB appreciated relative to the US dollar. Specifically, the VIX Index rose 0.39 to 27.75 The one-year yield of US bonds decreased by 4.0bp, and the 10-year yield was the same as that in the previous period. The dollar index rose 0.07 points. The RMB foreign exchange index rose 0.39 points.
risk tip: policy support is not as expected; Overseas policies tightened more than expected
01
liquidity topic
※ in January, the scale of private placement expanded against the trend, and individual account opening decreased slightly
According to the latest data, by the end of January 2022, the number of private equity investment funds managed was 78843, an increase of 2004 compared with the previous period; The scale of private securities investment funds was 6.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.27 billion yuan compared with the previous period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45.61%, and the growth rate continued to slow down. From the perspective of the scale expansion of private equity funds, it shows obvious seasonal characteristics, that is, the increase is obvious in the first month of each quarter, while it is basically flat in the second two months of the quarter. In terms of the new scale in January, the new scale has slowed down significantly, which is the lower value of the increment in the first month of the quarter in recent two years, which is related to the market retreat since the beginning of the year to a certain extent.
From the new filing of private equity funds, 2681 private equity investment funds were newly filed in January, with a corresponding scale of 40.121 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 59.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 42%. The popularity of new private equity funds also decreased significantly.
In the context of the sharp withdrawal of the market in January, the increment of the management scale of securities private placement (219.27 billion yuan) is significantly higher than the new filing scale of securities private placement (40.121 billion yuan). Therefore, it can be speculated that private placement investors may have additional investment after the market decline.
From the account opening situation of individual investors, 1.3211 million natural person A-share accounts were added in January, slightly lower than the 1.3688 million added in the previous month, which is at the upper middle level of history. From this point of view, in the process of market decline in January, the enthusiasm of individual investors for opening accounts did not decline significantly.
02
regulatory trends
03
monetary policy tools and capital cost
last week (February 14 - February 18), the open market recovered 150 billion yuan. in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the central bank carried out reverse repo of 50 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan in the same period, and the central bank's reverse repo expired, with a net return of 250 billion yuan; The operation of 300 billion yuan MLF was carried out. In the same period, 200 billion yuan MLF expired, and the net investment of excess renewal of MLF was 100 billion yuan.
There will be 50 billion yuan of reverse repo due in the next week.
money market interest rates rose, and the spread between R007 and dr007 widened; The yields of short-term and long-term treasury bonds rose, and the term interest spread narrowed. as of February 18, R007 was 2.15%, up 13.4bp compared with the previous period, dr007 was 2.09%, up 11.2bp compared with the previous period, and the interest margin between the two increased by 2.2bp to 0.06%. The yield to maturity of one-year treasury bonds increased by 5.9bp to 1.98%, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 0.8bp to 2.80%, and the term spread narrowed by 5.0bp to 0.82%.
the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuance interest rate decreased. from February 14 to February 18, 690 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, 174 less than the previous period; The total issuance scale was 463.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 333.37 billion yuan compared with the previous period; As of February 18, the 1-month, 3-month and 6-month issuance interest rates had changed by - 9.5bp, - 8.8bp, - 2.1bp to 2.19%, 2.43% and 2.59% respectively compared with the previous period.
04
supply and demand of stock market funds
(1) fund supply
From February 14 to February 18, 1.14 billion partial share public funds were newly established, a decrease of 3.56 billion compared with the previous period. Compared with the previous period, equity ETFs had a net outflow, corresponding to a net outflow of 10.39 billion yuan. throughout the week, the whole market financed a net purchase of 1.93 billion yuan, which changed from the previous net outflow to net inflow. As of February 18, the balance of A-share financing was 1619.87 billion yuan. Lu Gutong had a net outflow this week. The scale of the net outflow in that week was 2.4 billion yuan, which changed from the net inflow in the early stage to the net outflow.
(2) capital demand
In terms of capital demand, from February 14 to February 18, the IPO financing amount fell back to 4.6 billion yuan, and a total of four companies issued IPOs. As of February 21, it was announced that two companies will conduct IPO in the next week, with a planned fund-raising scale of 1.2 billion yuan. The scale of net reduction of major shareholders was expanded, with a net reduction of 8.29 billion yuan; The announced planned reduction scale was 5.45 billion yuan, down from the previous period.
The market value of restricted shares was 120.54 billion yuan (59.16 billion yuan of restricted shares of the original shareholders, 7.76 billion yuan of general shares, 11.09 billion yuan of fixed increase shares and 980 million yuan of other shares), down from the previous period. In the coming week, the scale of lifting the ban will be reduced to 78.54 billion yuan (13.96 billion yuan of restricted shares of the original shareholders, 4.53 billion yuan of general shares, 59.28 billion yuan of fixed increase shares and 770 million yuan of others).
05
investor sentiment
From February 14 to February 18, the financing purchase amount of the current week was 275.7 billion yuan; As of February 18, it accounted for 6.5% of the transaction volume of a shares, which increased compared with the previous period, increased the trading activity of investors and decreased the equity risk premium.
06
investor preferences
(1) lugutong
from February 14 to February 18, the net capital outflow of land stock connect was 2.4 billion yuan. In terms of industry preference, the net purchase scale of electrical equipment, transportation and banking is relatively high , with the purchase amount of 2.26 billion yuan, 1.88 billion yuan and 1.46 billion yuan respectively. The industries with high net sales scale are non bank finance, electronics, medicine, biology and other industries. In terms of stocks, the higher net purchase scale mainly includes Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (+ 1.1 billion yuan), Byd Company Limited(002594) (+ 810 million yuan), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (+ 760 million yuan), etc; Higher net sales mainly include Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (- 1.01 billion yuan), Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) (- 950 million yuan), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (- 670 million yuan), etc.
(2) financing transaction
From February 14 to February 18, the net inflow of financing funds was 1.93 billion yuan. specifically, this week's financing funds bought non-ferrous metals (+ 2.38 billion yuan), chemical (+ 1.57 billion yuan), building decoration (+ 960 million yuan) and other industries, and net sales of electrical equipment (- 1.46 billion yuan), food and beverage (- 1.27 billion yuan), electronics (- 1.25 billion yuan) and other industries. In terms of individual stocks, those with higher financing net purchase scale are Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (+ 650 million yuan), Byd Company Limited(002594) (+ 330 million yuan), Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (+ 330 million yuan), etc; The higher scale of financing net sales includes Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 1.05 billion yuan), Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) (- 760 million yuan), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (- 690 million yuan), etc.
(3) ETF net subscription and redemption
from February 14 to February 18, ETFs were redeemed net, with a net redemption of 8.11 billion in the current week, and the wide index ETFs were all net redemptions, among which the gem (including gem 50) ETFs were the most redeemed; There are half of ETF applications for redemption in the industry, among which there are more applications for ETF by securities companies and more redemptions of pharmaceutical ETF. specifically, the net redemption of CSI 300etf was 1.33 billion; Net redemption of gem ETFs was 1.42 billion; The net redemption of CSI 500etf was 70 million; The net redemption of SSE 50ETF was 40 million. The net redemption of mass entrepreneurship and innovation 50ETF was 1.06 billion. In terms of industry, 320 million it ETFs were redeemed; Net redemption of consumer ETFs: 640 million; The net redemption of pharmaceutical ETFs was 2.81 billion; The net subscription of ETFs by securities companies was 3.47 billion; Net subscription of financial real estate ETFs: 30 million; Net subscription of 740 million military ETFs; Net redemption of ETF of raw materials: 70 million; Net redemption of new energy & Intelligent Vehicle ETF was 1.6 billion.
from February 14 to February 18, the highest net subscription scale of equity ETF was Cathay Pacific China Securities all index securities company ETF (+ 1.97 billion shares) , followed by Huabao China Securities all index securities ETF (+ 1.01 billion shares); the highest net redemption scale is Huabao CSI medical ETF (- 1.13 billion) , followed by Huaan gem 50ETF (- 1.09 billion).
07
foreign exchange market
From February 14 to February 18, the US dollar index rebounded and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. as of February 18, the US dollar index closed at 96.10, up 0.07 points compared with the previous period (February 13), and the RMB exchange rate index rose 0.4 points compared with the previous period to close at 103.0. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB decreased, the spot exchange rate decreased and the offshore exchange rate decreased, which were 6.33, 6.33 and 6.33 respectively. The RMB appreciated.
In addition, the US dollar fell against the Hong Kong dollar, and the Hong Kong dollar appreciated against the US dollar.
08
overseas financial market liquidity tracking
(1) trends of major foreign central banks
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January. According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, most participants believe that the pace of interest rate increase in the target range of the federal funds rate may be accelerated compared with that after 2015. Most participants preferred to continue to reduce the committee's net asset purchase in accordance with the timetable announced in December, so that it would end in early March. Members said that the current economy has formed an environment suitable for raising interest rates, and the labor market has reached or very close to the level of full employment., If inflation does not fall, we must accelerate the pace of tightening policies. The Fed's balance sheet plan will be finalized at the "next few meetings".
ECB president Lagarde reiterated her insistence that officials would not be in a hurry to cancel stimulus measures in the eurozone and that any adjustment of ECB policies would be gradual. European Central Bank Management Committee villerova said there was no need to make a decision on raising interest rates before the June meeting. The ECB will maintain flexibility to ensure policy transmission. Lane, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, said that if the medium-term inflation dynamics are expected to stabilize near the 2% target, monetary policy will be allowed to gradually normalize, and the scale and frequency of interest rate changes will depend on the inflation mechanism. Lane, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada: on the issue of raising interest rates, we don't have to keep pace with the Fed. The Bank of Canada will make more comments on its balance sheet on March 2. The Central Bank of the Philippines will keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%, and will closely monitor oil price fluctuations and intervene if necessary.
(2) interest rate
the total assets of the Federal Reserve expanded in the last week. as of February 16, the assets held by the Federal Reserve were US $8911.033 billion, an increase of US $33.024 billion compared with the previous period (February 9). Among them, the scale of treasury bonds held was US $5738.619 billion, an increase of US $6.755 billion compared with the previous period.
From February 14 to February 18, the yield of short-term US bonds rose, and the yield of long-term US bonds remained unchanged from the previous period; Fra-ois spreads have widened significantly. the yield of us one-year treasury bond decreased by 4.0bp to 1.03%, and the 10-year Treasury bond remained unchanged from the previous period, maintaining at 1.92%, and the interest margin expanded by 4.0bp to 0.89%. As of February 20, the fra-ois interest margin was 11.1bp, up 2.8bp from the previous period (February 13), which was 9.81% since 2010.
(3) overseas market sentiment
The VIX index rebounded last week, rising 0.39 points to 27.75 compared with the previous period (February 13), and the market risk appetite decreased. Tensions in Russia and Ukraine continued to depress market sentiment. Last week, the S & P 500 index fell 1.76% and the NASDAQ index fell 1.58%.
