A-share investors exceeded 200 million only one step away.
On February 18, China Clearing announced the changes of investor data in January. In January, 1324300 new investors were added, and the cumulative number of investors was 198732800. The cumulative number of investors is 200 million, with a gap of 1.27 million. It is worth noting that in January, the number of new investors decreased by 3.6% month on month and 36.77% year-on-year, a new high in recent six years.
However, in the past three months, the number of new A-share investors has exceeded 1.3 million. If this rhythm is maintained, the total number of investors will exceed 200 million by the end of February. At the latest, the number of investors exceeded 200 million by the end of March.
According to the data, the number of A-share investors officially exceeded 100 million in January 2016. Since the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 1990, the accumulation of the first 100 million investors has taken about 26 years. Since January 2016, the accumulation of the second 100 million investors has taken about six years.
On February 18, the CSRC announced on its official website its reply to the “suggestions on optimizing the protection mechanism for the rights and interests of minority shareholders of China’s listed companies” at the fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress. The CSRC said that the number of Chinese investors exceeds 180 million, and the investor protection work is directly related to the vital interests of hundreds of millions of people. It will continue to build and improve the securities investor protection system to protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially the majority of small and medium-sized investors.
the number of investors is still 1.27 million away from 200 million
In January, the number of investors increased by 1324300, down 3.6% month on month. The stock market in January was not ideal, which affected the pace of investors entering the market. The market is not ideal in February. With the addition of Spring Festival holiday factors, it is expected that the number of new investors will decline appropriately. However, as long as the number exceeds 1.27 million, the total number of investors can exceed 200 million. It is expected that the 200 million investor mark will be broken by the end of March at the latest.
Data show that more than 19 million investors entered the market last year, more than 2020. In the first November of last year, the number of Chinese investor accounts increased by 18.2598 million, which exceeded the full year of 2020 (18.025 million), the highest since 2017.
Investors’ enthusiasm for entering the market also increased the trading volume of the stock market. Many people can clearly feel that the daily turnover has increased significantly since this year. For many investors, it is not uncommon for the daily turnover to exceed trillion yuan.
According to the data, the average daily turnover of the stock market exceeded trillion in 2021, which was significantly larger than that in the past few years. The average daily turnover in 2020 is only more than 840 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover in 2019 is only 520 billion yuan.
Analysts believe that behind the amplification of daily average trading volume of the stock market, on the one hand, it is related to the general trend of residents’ financial management into the market and non speculation in housing and housing; On the other hand, due to the continuous expansion of the stock market under the registration system, the daily trading volume is naturally enlarged accordingly.
the decline of new investors in a single month hit a new high in recent six years
Chinese reporters from securities companies noted that the number of new investors in January this year was 1.3243 million, down 3.6% month on month and 36.77% year-on-year. The month on month decline data is relatively normal, but the year-on-year decline is large. Data show that the year-on-year decline of 36.77% is the largest monthly decline in recent six years.
Insiders told reporters that the year-on-year decline of new investors in January was mainly due to the previous high base. In January 2021, the market performance was relatively hot, with a large increase, driving the enthusiasm of investors to enter the market. That month, there were 2.09 million new investors, which was the relative high point of several months at that time. Investors were too active in January this year, but the market was too sluggish.
The reporter noted that the last monthly drop of more than 36.77% in new investors was in June 2016, also because of the previous high base.
In the first half of 2015, the stock market rose too fast and investors entered the market quickly. In June 2015, 4.6422 million investors were added in that month, which is a high level in history. In 2016, the market was sluggish, and there were not many new investors.
continuously improve the investor protection system
On February 18, the CSRC announced its reply to recommendation No. 3534 of the fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress on its official website. The title of the proposal is “suggestions on optimizing the protection mechanism for the rights and interests of minority shareholders of Listed Companies in China”.
The CSRC said that the number of investors in China’s securities market exceeds 180 million, and the protection of investors is directly related to the vital interests of hundreds of millions of people. Respecting, respecting and protecting investors are the bounden responsibility of all kinds of market subjects, and an important embodiment of the implementation of the people-centered development concept in the capital market, It is also the fundamental mission of the securities regulatory authorities.
The CSRC said that considering the particularity of securities investors, in addition to forming a legal relationship of financial services with securities operating institutions as customers, there are multiple attributes such as shareholders, creditors and fund unit holders of listed companies. The rights and obligations and regulatory requirements related to financial consumers should not be generalized. Special legislation on the securities market has or is strengthening the relevant provisions on investor protection. The CSRC will continue to build and improve the securities investor protection system to protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially the majority of small and medium-sized investors.
On the “proposal on the use of confiscated funds to establish a special fund for damages”, the CSRC said that the establishment of a special compensation fund for investor protection is of great significance. As the fines and confiscations imposed by the CSRC on the violators belong to the fines and confiscation of illegal income stipulated in the second paragraph of Article 9 of the administrative punishment law, they have the nature of punishment. According to the relevant legal systems such as the budget law, the regulations of the state treasury, the measures for the implementation of the separation of fine decision and fine collection, and the provisions on the implementation of “two lines of revenue and expenditure” management of administrative fees and fines and confiscations, the fines and confiscations shall be turned over to the state treasury in full.
Under the current legal system, the system of delaying the warehousing of securities fines and confiscations or the system of applying for the withdrawal of securities fines and confiscations has not been established, or a special fund for investor damage compensation has been established for securities fines and confiscations.
At present, investor protection institutions can provide public welfare assistance such as public welfare consultation, litigation support, dispute mediation and special representative litigation for small and medium-sized investors, so as to help investors better safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. The CSRC will continue to study the issue of investor compensation and promote new progress in the investor damage compensation relief mechanism.
With regard to the “suggestions on the flexibility of litigation cost bearing of minority shareholders”, the CSRC said that when formulating the provisions, the Supreme People’s court had paid full attention to the actual situation that many small and medium-sized investors in the securities market were in a weak position in litigation. Article 25 stipulates: “if the representative requests the defendant who loses the lawsuit to compensate for reasonable announcement fees, notification fees, lawyer fees and other expenses, the people’s court shall support it.” Article 39 stipulates: “the special representative shall not pay the case acceptance fee in advance. If the plaintiff who loses the lawsuit or partially loses the lawsuit applies for reduction or exemption of the litigation fee, the people’s court shall decide whether to allow it in accordance with the provisions of the measures for the payment of litigation fee and according to the economic situation of the plaintiff and the trial of the case.”
If the plaintiff wins the lawsuit, in addition to the legal costs borne by the defendant, he may also request the defendant to compensate for reasonable announcement fees, notification fees, lawyer fees and other expenses; Even if the plaintiff loses the lawsuit, the people’s court is allowed to reduce or reduce the plaintiff’s litigation fees according to the specific circumstances. If the listed company is limited to bear litigation costs, it may involve the judgment of “goodwill” of the plaintiff before the lawsuit, and the sharp reduction of litigation costs may lead to the phenomenon of “excessive litigation”, which will affect the operation of the listed company and other shareholders’ rights and interests.
Under the leadership of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council, the CSRC will further improve the system and mechanism for the protection of investors’ rights and interests; Continue to strengthen close communication with the Supreme People’s court, give full play to the institutional advantages of the litigation of special representatives for securities disputes, and steadily promote the normalization of relevant litigation in accordance with the law; At the same time, relying on the coordination mechanism for the protection of the rights and interests of financial consumers and investors, actively communicate and coordinate with the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission to jointly promote the protection of the rights and interests of financial consumers and investors.
how do A-Shares go this year
Standing at the beginning of 2022, there are many voices in the market discussing how to go about a shares.
Chen Li, chief economist of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , said that the positive policies set by the central economic work conference will still be implemented. This is more obvious in terms of monetary policy, such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio and LPR (quoted interest rate in the loan market), and the credit growth may also pick up. In terms of fiscal policy, the effect may not appear until after the Spring Festival. Therefore, I personally believe that the performance of the A-share market after the Spring Festival will be better than that before the Spring Festival.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist and managing director Wang Hanfeng holds a neutral and positive view on the A-share market in the year of the tiger. He believes that “there are no risks, and the opportunities outweigh the risks”. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty in the A-share market in 2022, the favorable factors of loose policies, gradual improvement of growth and low overall market valuation can enable investors to grasp phased and structural opportunities according to the changes of the main contradictions of the market. In 2022, the overall valuation of A-Shares may be slightly expanded. The market style may still be biased towards growth, and the valuation premium compared with value stocks is expected to remain high. However, valuation differentiation may continue to exist between different industries and among companies in the industry, and the marginal change of valuation depends on the boom trend.
According to the latest research report on China Thailand strategy, after the holiday, in the empty window period of “substantial interest rate increase” by the Federal Reserve, China’s steady growth policies such as RRR reduction, savings force, social finance and other indicators stabilize, the market may open a “spring market”. At the same time, considering the benefits of comprehensive registration system and steady growth on undervalued blue chips, the potential suppression of high valuation by the “hawks” of the Federal Reserve, and the strength and non record low of undervalued blue chips such as SSE 50 in the adjustment process in January, the market after the festival is still the main line of blue chips.
Haitong strategy said that compared with the beginning of 2008, 11 and 18, the current stock market valuation is low and the policy is loose. This year’s probability is not a bear market, it is more likely to be a rest year in a long bull, but a volatile market. The market decline in January was due to concerns about China’s steady growth, overseas interest rate hikes and tense relations between Russia and Ukraine. The disturbance is dissipating. The market in spring is just late and will not be absent. Steady growth spring market tends to grow after value, such as undervalued financial real estate and high prosperity hard technology (new infrastructure).
The latest research report of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the “short board” has been supplemented by the rescue of the service industry. The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market. The concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end, and the “three bottoms” have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the positive layout of the main line of the steady growth market. First of all, the coverage of the recent steady growth policy has been expanding. The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and new infrastructure have helped to make steady progress in investment. The rescue measures for the service industry have accurately pointed to the short board of consumption. The continuous refinement of policies in the future is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption. Secondly, the main line of steady growth in the early stage is more focused on traditional industries that underestimate the value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of steady growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of steady growth will be more balanced. Finally, in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure has been relieved rapidly, the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, the attraction of RMB assets has been further improved, and the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”.
future analysis
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