Core conclusions:
As of mid February this year, the net inflow of A-share funds was weaker than that in the same period of previous years. According to our incomplete statistics, the net outflow of A-share funds since the beginning of the year was 297 billion yuan, the first net outflow in the past three years. It should be noted that the data release of many capital inflow projects lags behind, which will lead to the underestimation of the amount of net capital inflow. Among the announced capital inflow projects, the financing balance, the share of public funds and the net inflow of funds from northbound were weaker than those in the same period of previous years.
Net capital inflows have fallen for three consecutive months, and leveraged funds are the main drag this month. 1) In the past 12 months, the proportion of cumulative net inflow in the free circulation market value continued to decline, with the latest reading of - 0.82%, at a low level since 2019. 2) From the perspective of sub projects, the net inflow of funds and the share of public funds from northbound maintained a positive growth, but the marginal growth rate weakened. The financing balance decreased by more than 90 billion yuan in January, the largest monthly decline in the past four years.
The proportion of financing balance in the circulating market value continued to decline. In January this year, with the sharp adjustment of the stock market, the financing balance decreased significantly. Since February, with the stabilization of the stock market, the financing balance has increased month on month compared with January, but the recovery of financing balance is still weaker than that of the stock market. As of February 16, the proportion of financing balance in the circulating market value has dropped to a low level since July 2020, indicating that the departure of leveraged funds has not been alleviated.
The share growth of partial equity public funds was weaker than that in the same period last year. 1) In January this year, the share of partial equity public funds increased by 103 billion compared with the end of last year, which was significantly weaker than 332.7 billion in the same period last year. 2) From the historical point of view, the issuance of public shares in 2020q1 was significantly higher than that in 2020q1 in the fourth quarter of last year. The "good start" phenomenon of fund issuance in 2022 failed.
The margin of net capital inflow from going north weakened. 1) In January this year, the net inflow of funds going north was 16.775 billion yuan, the 16th consecutive month, but the amount of net inflow decreased month on month compared with December last year. 2) In addition, in January, the net inflow of funds from the south to Hong Kong stocks was 35.753 billion yuan, and the difference between the net inflow of funds from the north and the net outflow of funds from the South was 18.979 billion yuan. The overall net outflow of A-Shares from interconnection channels is the first time in the past ten months.
The scale of equity financing was flat at the end of 2021. 1) In January this year, the scale of equity financing was 217 billion yuan, which was the same as that from November to December last year. However, for the average value of previous years, the scale of equity financing in January this year is not low, and the average monthly scale of equity financing in the past three years is less than 150 billion yuan. 2) From the perspective of sub items, the scale of equity financing since the beginning of the year is mainly contributed by IPO projects.
Risk factors: there is a time lag in the publication of some data; The estimation of some projects deviates from the actual situation.
