Macro strategy Daily: the national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued policies to promote the development of industry and service industry

The national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued policies to promote the development of industry and service industry

Twelve departments including the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the steady growth of industrial economy, and put forward 18 specific measures from five aspects: fiscal tax policy and financial credit policy to promote the steady growth of industrial economy. In terms of fiscal taxes, the phased tax deferment policy will be extended, and the policy of delaying the payment of some taxes by small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry implemented in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be implemented for a further six months; Continue to implement the preferential policies of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, awards and subsidies for charging facilities, and reduction and exemption of vehicle and vessel taxes; We will continue to implement the policy of periodically reducing the premium rates of unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance.

The national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued 43 policies to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, including the continuation of fiscal and tax policies such as value-added tax plus and deduction in the service industry, employment support policies such as increasing the proportion of stable job return of unemployment insurance, and the classified implementation of rent reduction and exemption policies. It also defined specific measures for the relief and support of five industries with special difficulties, such as catering, retail, tourism, highway, waterway, railway transportation and civil aviation, including guiding Internet platform enterprises such as takeout to further reduce the service fee standard of catering merchants, and phased exemption from public transport service value-added tax.

The national development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the steady growth of industrial economy and 43 policies to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, which are detailed policies and measures in the spirit of the national standing committee meeting on February 14 to help the economy achieve steady growth. Tax reduction and fee reduction reflect positive fiscal policies and alleviate the operating pressure of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. In terms of ensuring supply and price stability, establish a unified step price system for high energy consuming industries to promote high energy consuming industries to improve energy efficiency; We will ensure the supply and price of important raw materials and primary products such as iron ore and chemical fertilizer. In terms of energy consumption assessment, the target of energy consumption intensity will be comprehensively assessed during the 14th Five Year Plan period to avoid limiting the normal energy consumption of enterprises due to the progress of energy consumption indicators. It is expected that the phenomenon of power and production restriction last year may not occur again this year. In addition, the policy also mentioned the project of “counting from the east to the west”, which is expected to play an obvious driving role in 5g, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence, IDC and other industries.

The negotiation of Iran’s nuclear agreement has released certain positive signals

According to Tehran, Xinhua news agency, Iranian President Lech said on February 19 that the key to reaching an agreement through negotiation between the parties to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue is to ensure the interests of the Iranian people. According to the Iranian president’s website, Leahy said on the phone with French President macron that the Iranian delegation was seriously negotiating in the Austrian capital Vienna. Iran put forward constructive proposals during the negotiations and studied the proposals of other parties based on the interests of the Iranian people. Earlier, according to Iranian news television, Iranian foreign minister abdullahiyan, who arrived in Germany on February 18 to attend the 58th Munich Security Conference, told the media that Iran had put forward “positive initiatives” at the negotiating table and that the parties were “very close to reaching a good agreement”. However, the western countries participating in the negotiations must show real initiative and flexibility before the negotiations can achieve results in the next few days or weeks.

On the whole, the negotiation on Iran’s nuclear agreement has released some positive signals. According to the information of the International Energy Agency, if the Iran nuclear negotiation is successful, the United States may lift the sanctions on Iran’s exports, which may return 1.3 million barrels / day of Iranian oil to the market, or alleviate the shortage of global crude oil supply.

The situation in Ukraine became the focus of the Muan meeting

According to Xinhua news agency, due to the continuous increase in the influx of refugees from eastern Ukraine, the state government of Rostov State in southern Russia announced on February 19 that the state will enter a state of emergency from now on. At the same time, the situation in Ukraine has become the focus of discussion at the 58th Munich Security Conference (Muan Conference) being held in Germany, and many participants called for easing the situation.

Civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine announced on the 18th that due to the risk of military action launched by Ukraine, they will evacuate local residents to Russia on a large scale from now on. On the afternoon of the 18th, an explosion occurred at the seat of the government of the “people’s Republic of Donetsk” established by the civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine. After the explosion, the leaders of the “people’s Republic of Donetsk” and “people’s Republic of Lugansk” issued a statement saying that in order to prevent civilian casualties, local residents would be organized to move to Russia.

Ukrainian defense minister reznikov and the commander in chief of the armed forces zaluzhne issued a statement on the 18th, saying that the civil armed forces in eastern Ukraine released false information to create panic, and the Ukrainian government will resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine through political and diplomatic means.

The situation in Ukraine has become the focus of this mu’an meeting. In his first speech at the Muan meeting on the 19th, Scholtz said that the situation in Ukraine had not eased, “there is a risk of another war in Europe”, and diplomatic channels are still a means to solve the Ukrainian problem. He also said that Russia’s concern about Ukraine’s accession to NATO is “absurd”, and Ukraine’s accession to NATO will not be on the agenda in the near future.

European Commission President von delaine said at the meeting that a series of recent events may reshape the entire international system and bring economic losses to Russia. Harris said in his speech that day that if Russia invades Ukraine, it will face unprecedented economic sanctions.

Overall, the situation in Russia and Ukraine may continue to release risk sentiment in the short term, and friction may reduce the risk appetite of the market, which is relatively bad for risk assets and beneficial for safe haven assets such as US bonds and gold.

Financing funds

On February 17, the balance of A-share financing was 1623.255 billion yuan, an increase of 1.55 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 172.175 billion yuan, an increase of 1.043 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1525.998 billion yuan, down 280 million yuan month on month.

Land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect

On February 18, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 4.838 billion yuan, including 41.707 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 36.870 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1659.698 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $3.149 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $11.928 billion and a sale transaction of HK $15.077 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2226.193 billion.

Money market

On February 18, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor’s overnight interest rate was 2.1100%, up 25.50bp, and Shibor’s weekly interest rate was 2.0980%, up 9.60bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of depository institutions was 2.1009% overnight, up 24.06bp and 2.0910% a week, up 11.75bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.7975%, up 1.76bp.

Overseas stock market

On February 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 34079.18 points, down 0.68%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4348.87 points, down 0.72%; The NASDAQ index closed at 13548.07, down 1.23%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 6929.63 points, down 0.25%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 15042.51 points, down 1.47%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7513.62, down 0.32%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 27232.87 points, down 0.83%; Hang Seng Index closed at 24792.77 points, up 0.30%

Foreign exchange rate

On February 18, the dollar index rose 0.29% to 95.8216. The euro rose 0.15% against the dollar to 1.1363. The dollar fell 0.14% against the yen to 114.9250. The pound rose 0.31% against the dollar to 1.3614. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3265, up 0.16%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3341, up 0.14%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3343, depreciating by 0.03%.

Gold, crude oil

On February 18, Comex gold futures rose 0.01% to close at US $1900.80/oz. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.61% to close at US $90.62/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.72% to close at US $93.61/barrel. COMEX copper futures rose 0.31% to close at US $4.5140/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 0.33% to close at US $9955 / ton

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