Last week, a number of macro events continued to ferment, among which the biggest change was the situation in Ukraine and Russia around oil prices and the Iran nuclear negotiations. The situation in Ukraine and Russia suffered twists and turns last week. At present, the spokesmen of Russia and Ukraine officially maintain the attitude of "hoping for the continuation of negotiations". However, on February 15, the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) passed a resolution calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize the "people's Republic of Donetsk" and "people's Republic of Lugansk" as "independent and sovereign states", Subsequently, the two sides have launched several low-intensity exchanges of fire around the Lugansk region, which will raise the price of crude oil and natural gas in Europe in the short term. In addition, Iran's nuclear negotiations also made some progress last week. Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said that the work with world powers on resuming the nuclear agreement was "closer than ever" to reach an agreement. Subsequent crude oil prices will continue to play a game around the above two events.
Secondly, the US tightening expectation did not usher in more signals. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January fully met expectations and there were no more hawkish remarks. However, European Central Bank Management Committee Kazaks said that it was "very possible" to raise interest rates this year. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (the first interest rate hike - the landing of interest rate hike), the strength of interest rate hike expectation is accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, and the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index are adjusted (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level). After the fact of raising interest rates, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, and the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded. The reduction of the balance sheet is obviously bad for financial assets. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rates as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
Finally, China's steady growth signal continues to strengthen, but at the same time, it also continues to emphasize the guarantee of supply and stable price of bulk commodities. The national development and Reform Commission and other 12 departments jointly issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy, and put forward five policies on fiscal taxes, financial credit, ensuring supply and price stability, investment, foreign trade and foreign investment, land use, energy use and environment, so as to promote the steady growth of industrial economy. However, it also emphasizes the guarantee of supply and price stability of bulk commodities. The State Administration of market supervision, the national development and Reform Commission and the CSRC jointly reminded and warned some iron ore trading enterprises not to fabricate and publish false price information, nor to maliciously hype, hoard and bid up prices, and called on relevant state-owned enterprises to take the initiative to bear social responsibility and help the government ensure supply and price stability. At the micro level, by the end of this week, local special bonds had increased by only 100 billion this month. However, according to our statistics on the issuance plan of local governments, with the two sessions approaching, it is expected to usher in a wave of special bonds next week. In January, the sales of excavators and heavy trucks were still relatively low, and the acquisition of land for commercial housing in China still fell by more than 50% year-on-year in January. A number of forward-looking data show that it still takes time for credit to be transmitted to entities, and there is a significant cooling across the country this week. Combined with the repeated epidemic in some regions, it may further delay the transmission of credit. At present, the real estate is still in the bottom grinding stage, and the infrastructure is still in the power storage stage. The power will gradually appear in the future.
Generally speaking, the release of daily credit and social finance in January may indicate that the probability of substantial monetary easing in February has decreased. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission has strongly suppressed energy and iron ore inflation, and the release rate of special bonds in February is also lower than expected. Our short-term strategy of reducing domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) is neutral; As the two sessions window approaches, and Tianliang social finance supports the enterprise's profit expectation, we still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the crude oil chain is more dependent on the favorable situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of mitigation of subsequent events; At the precious metals level, as the US CPI in January hit a new high since the 1980s, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation and superimposed the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we raised our precious metals strategy in the short term to bargain hunting and long.
Strategy:
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal)
Neutral;
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The risk of Sino US game is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; Iran nuclear talks.
