Industrial metals: steady growth drives industrial metal demand to improve
Aluminum: the supply disturbance at home and abroad continues, China’s downstream demand gradually recovers, and the price of overseas natural gas continues to be high, resulting in the rising cost of electricity. Aluminum plants have plans to reduce production or stop production, resulting in continuous supply disturbance. In view of the increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that the overseas energy crisis will be difficult to eliminate in the short term, and the cost support of Lun aluminum is strong. In China, the operating rate of downstream enterprises of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly this week, the demand gradually recovered, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high, mainly benefiting from Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Copper: the international tension intensified, the Fed meeting responded fully in advance, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level
This week, international tensions intensified and risk aversion increased. This week, the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in January did not show too much “Hawk” information, the expected response to the interest rate increase was sufficient, and the copper price showed a high shock. From the current fundamentals, LME copper inventory continues to decline, and the accumulation of Shanghai copper inventory is a normal manifestation of seasonality. Although the demand has not recovered yet, due to China’s stable growth policy, the marginal increase of demand in the later stage is relatively certain, and the short-term copper price may maintain a shock pattern, mainly benefiting from Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) and so on.
Energy metals: China Automobile Association released the production and sales data in January, and the demand continued to maintain high growth
Lithium: demand continues to improve, and lithium prices are still expected to continue to rise
China Automobile Association released the automobile production and sales data in January. In January 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles reached 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 12.6% and 18.6%, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times. The downstream demand for lithium salt continues to maintain a high growth trend. Under the shortage of supply, the price of lithium is expected to continue to rise, mainly benefiting from Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) etc.
Cobalt: short term tight supply and demand, pushing up cobalt prices continued to rise
The output data of China’s downstream power batteries continued a high growth trend. In the absence of a large number of new supply inputs, the inventory of electric cobalt market was still low, pushing up the price of electric cobalt to rise rapidly in the past week. At present, the inventory of raw material plants is generally low and the supply is tight, while the market demand may remain strong in the later stage. The prices of electric cobalt and cobalt salt are expected to remain high, mainly benefiting from Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) and so on.
Rare earth: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall
Since the beginning of the year, the shortage of imported ore supply has intensified due to the epidemic in Myanmar. At the same time, the supply of neodymium iron boron waste in China has also declined due to insufficient supply and upside down cost. Under the background of strong demand, the price of rare earth has continued to strengthen. Looking ahead, the imbalance between supply and demand of rare earth is difficult to solve in the short term, and the price of rare earth is still easy to rise but difficult to fall. The main beneficiaries include China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) .
Precious metals: the tension between Russia and Ukraine has driven the price of precious metals stronger
This week, the situation in Ukraine continued to heat up and geopolitical risks increased, which led to a rise in global risk aversion and a slight rise in precious metal prices. In the short term, there is a possibility of repeated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and U.S. inflation continues to be high, and precious metal prices are still expected to continue to strengthen, mainly benefiting from Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the monetary policy shrinks more than expected, the global epidemic is repeated, etc
