In January, the automobile industry was generally stable, with a slight year-on-year increase in production and sales: according to the data released by the China Automobile Association on February 18, the national automobile production and sales volume in January 2022 reached 2422000 and 2531000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 16.7% and 9.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. Under the background of high base in the same period last year, automobile production and sales still increased slightly year-on-year, and the industry continued to rise.
According to the survey results of "automobile dealer inventory" in January 2022 released by China Automobile Circulation Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.46, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% and a month on month increase of 2.1%. The inventory level rebounded, but it was still below the warning line. The inventory coefficient of high-end luxury & imported brands was 1.22, up 2.5% month on month; The inventory coefficient of joint venture brands was 1.46, up 3.5% month on month; The inventory coefficient of independent brands was 1.58, up 2.6% month on month. As the core shortage eased in the fourth quarter of last year, the automobile supply gradually recovered and the dealer inventory level further recovered. In January 2022, the consumption before the festival came to an end. Affected by the scattered epidemic, the number of people returning home for the festival has not yet returned to the level before the epidemic, and the consumption before the festival has been affected to a certain extent. Considering that February is the Spring Festival holiday and the manufacturer's production is light, it is expected that the automobile inventory in February will still be at a low level, and the dealer inventory is expected to continue to rise in March and April.
The penetration of new energy vehicles was accelerated, and the growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles was ahead year-on-year: in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively. Among them, 367000 and 346000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were 85000, an increase of 2.0 times year-on-year; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 142 and 192 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9 times and 2.0 times respectively. Xinneng automobile market penetration reached 17.0%, accelerating penetration.
Driven by policy support and supply, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain has gradually matured, and diversified new energy vehicle products continue to meet the market demand. This year, new energy vehicles are expected to continue to maintain higher than expected growth.
The year-on-year growth rate of passenger car production and sales was better than the industry level, and SUV performance was bright: in January, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.077 million and 2.186 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 17.8% and 9.7% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 8.7% and 6.7% respectively, which was better than the industry as a whole. In terms of subdivided models, except MPV production and sales, the other three types of models have achieved positive growth, and SUV has taken the lead in growth.
In January, 1.004 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, accounting for 45.9% of the total passenger car sales, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year.
As China's passenger car market is gradually changing from incremental market to stock market, competition intensifies, and differentiation will become the main theme of independent brands in the future. Brands with weak technology, slow launch of new cars and small scale will be gradually eliminated, and the market share will accelerate to the concentration of leading enterprises with brand and technical advantages such as great wall and Geely.
The production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased significantly year-on-year, and heavy trucks increased month on month: in January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 345000 and 344000 respectively, down 9.3% and 5.5% month on month respectively; Decreased by 28.0% and 25.0% respectively year-on-year. In terms of models, buses and trucks showed a year-on-year decline.
In January, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 95000, a year-on-year decrease of 48% and a month on month increase of 69%. The sales volume of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) heavy trucks of major auto enterprises in January was 27000, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Four of the top nine heavy truck enterprises have increased their market share, of which Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) has the largest increase, increasing by 15.0pct to 28.4% over the same period last year. We predict that with the end of the off-season from February to March and the introduction of steady growth policies, the recovery of the heavy truck industry may be earlier than expected.
Investment suggestion: in January 2022, the automobile production and sales performance was stable, with a slight year-on-year increase. We expect that the automobile market demand in the first quarter will be relatively stable and the core shortage will continue to ease. However, considering the high base factor in the same period last year, the automobile production and sales will achieve a slight year-on-year growth in the first quarter of this year, and the new energy vehicles will continue to grow at a high rate, with a high probability of exceeding expectations throughout the year. We recommend three main lines:
(1) independent brand leaders with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) .
(2) parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) .
(3) heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
Risk warning: the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply; The impact of the shortage of automotive chips continues; Weak economic growth affects automobile demand.
