Main contents
Baijiu: Spring Festival sales increased sharply, mature single product significantly volume
According to Ali channel data, Baijiu online sales, sales volume and average price in January were up 9.0%/93.3% / 47.8%/60.5% / -26.3%/20.4% respectively. Due to the advance of the Spring Festival to February 1 and the increase of the return rate, the sales volume and sales volume in January increased year-on-year. In the high-end liquor, the sales volume and average price of Maotai fell in January under the high base, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) improved as a whole; The secondary high-end Guotai, Langjiu, shede and Fenjiu have maintained rapid growth, mainly due to the large volume of large single products of Guotai national standard liquor, haizhilan, Bofen, taste shede and other brands, and the market share is concentrated on mature single products; The sales volume of regional liquor increased significantly under the background of market demand expansion of the base; The sales volume of Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) in the third and fourth tier liquor increased by 241.0% year-on-year, mainly due to the five-star volume of small Golden Emblem and Century Golden Emblem. Baijiu CR19 increased 2.09 percentage points to 56.88% compared to the same period last year.
Beer: with the increase of return rate, the sales volume increased year-on-year, and the long-term structural upgrading trend remained unchanged
According to Alibaba channel data, the sales volume, sales volume and average price of the beer industry in January changed by 24.77%, 41.69% and – 11.94% respectively year-on-year. Under the influence of the advance of the Spring Festival to February 1 and the increase of the return rate, the sales and sales volume in January increased significantly year-on-year and month on month, and the average price improved month on month. In terms of sales, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Harbin beer and China Resources snowflake performed well, with sales up 948.2%, 309.4% and 216.5% year-on-year; In terms of sales volume, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Harbin beer and Heineken beer performed well, with year-on-year growth of 950.3%, 414.1% and 250.4% respectively; In terms of price, China Resources snowflake and corona performed prominently, with a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and 23.9% respectively. In terms of market share, the concentration of beer industry fell this month, CR9 decreased by 12.5pct year-on-year, of which Budweiser’s market share decreased by 10.1pct.
Wine: the structural upgrading promoted the average price, and Lafite Changyu performed well
According to Alibaba channel data, wine sales, sales volume and average price in January changed by 14.8%, – 13.6% and 32.9% respectively year-on-year. Thanks to the structural upgrading, the average price of wine increased significantly in January, driving the overall sales growth. Among them, the sales of Lafite and Changyu increased significantly year-on-year and month on month. Lafite’s sales volume and sales volume performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and 33.0%; In terms of price, Benfu and murafe performed well, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.0% and 14.5% respectively. In terms of market share, the concentration of wine industry decreased this month, and CR7 decreased by 21.1pct to 20.4% year-on-year.
Yellow rice wine: sales increased steadily year-on-year, and the high concentration decreased slightly
According to Alibaba channel data, the sales volume, sales volume and average price of rice wine in January changed by 1.8%, 3.0% and – 1.1% respectively year-on-year. In terms of sales, Shikumen and Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) performed relatively steadily, with growth rates of 22.2% and 17.3% respectively; In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of Shikumen and Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) increased year-on-year, with growth rates of 59.1% and 8.7% respectively; In terms of price, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) and tower increased by 8.0% and 7.5% respectively. The market share of rice wine CR7 decreased by 2.0pct to 63.7% year-on-year, of which the market share of Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) increased by 3.5pct year-on-year.
Investment advice
Investment suggestions: it is recommended to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304)
Baijiu, after the initial callback, the current Baijiu valuation has been in a reasonable interval, based on the overall trend of the industry fundamentals unchanged and the three major differences in the Spring Festival observation, we believe that we need to grasp the short-term catalytic + dynamic marketing. Inventory status prediction (determining 22q2 performance) + payment collection progress (determining 22q1 performance) + long-term development direction to select the target – it is recommended to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ;
In terms of beer, the upgrading trend of high-end continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading enterprises with high-end industry and strong price raising ability and cost control ability, such as Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, etc.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; The recovery of movable pin is less than expected; Food safety risk
