Market Review
Last week (0214-0218) five trading days, building materials (CITIC) index rose 0.36%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.08%, and other special materials and other structural materials in the sub sector rose higher. Among individual stocks, Innuovo Technology Co.Ltd(000795) , China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co.Ltd(300374) , * ST Yabo, Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co.Ltd(603826) , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) led the gains.
The demand starts gradually, and the cement market continues to rise
Last week, the building materials index rose 0.36%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.08%, the cement index rose 0.94%, and the cumulative increase after the festival reached 11.67%, significantly ahead of the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index. From the beginning of the past decade to the end of the peak season (5.30), the average increase of the cement index was 35.3%, and the lowest in 21 years was 14.5%. In 2022, the importance of steady growth has increased, and the policy environment is more favorable. However, since the beginning of the year, the maximum increase of cement index is only 10%, less than 21 years. At present, the cement sector as a whole is still at the bottom, PE ttm/PB. LF is 9.3 / 1.2 times respectively, corresponding to the 29% / 5% quantile in the past 13 years, and there is still room for rise. The potential demand for 22q1 cement (delayed demand in the second half of last year + commencement of key projects) may exceed that in the same period of last year. The release of demand depends on the construction conditions and capital landing. If it is effectively landed, the production end of the supply end will be more constrained by staggered peak shutdown in the first quarter, or cause local water and mud shortage. Last week, the clinker price along the river ushered in the second round of rise, which supported the cement price. It is expected that the downstream demand will increase significantly at the end of February and early March, and the cement market is expected to usher in further catalysis.
Actively grasp the restless market of the Spring Festival and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipes / glass cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass enterprises is at a low level. At present, they are in the period of accelerated resumption of work in spring, and the glass price is expected to gradually rise. This year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance, the unit profit of float glass is expected to be relatively stable, photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad Co., Ltd. are recommended for the pipeline; Recommended cement Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) for glass fiber;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
