Key investment points
Thinking this week: how to view the investment value of rehabilitation track
We believe that under the background of the expansion of centralized mining, the normalization of anti epidemic and the disturbance of international restrictive events, based on the acceleration of China’s population aging process and the huge population base, the field of rehabilitation medicine has undoubtedly become one of the sectors with the strongest development certainty.
\u3000\u30001. What is the profitability of rehabilitation medical enterprises?
We found that in the past five years, the level of roe of rehabilitation medical enterprises is significantly higher than that of other segments. Revenue growth ranked second only to the high-value consumables sector, while gross profit margin and net profit margin have maintained a steady upward trend in recent five years.
\u3000\u30002. Where is the inflection point of the development of rehabilitation medical industry?
We believe that 2021 will be a stage of accelerated policy promotion and comprehensive construction of rehabilitation concept; 2022 is the year of small-scale trial of ox knife, and the stage of initially forming industry norms and standards; 2023 will be the stage of accelerated expansion of rehabilitation medicine and accelerated release of terminal demand.
\u3000\u30003. What is the competitive pattern of enterprises in the rehabilitation medical industry?
By the end of 2020, there are 4819 manufacturers of rehabilitation medical devices in China, but there are only a few listed companies in the industry, and the market concentration is still at a low stage.
\u3000\u30004. How to understand the core variables of the competitiveness of rehabilitation medical enterprises?
We believe that the state of enterprise enclosure dilutes the core variable of technical barriers, and the breadth of products is particularly important in occupying the blank market in the early stage. Generally speaking, it is suggested to pay attention to: Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) , Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) , Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) , Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) .
Performance this week: the sector rose generally, and CXO bottomed out and reversed
This week, the pharmaceutical sector rose 4.8%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.8 percentage points, ranking the second in all industries. In terms of trading volume, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 374.3 billion yuan, accounting for 8.9% of the total turnover of all a shares, unchanged from last week, 0.8pct higher than the central level since 2018. As of February 18, 2022, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 29.5 times, up 1.2pct month on month, which was significantly lower than the central level since 2011 (PE 38 times). The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 131.0%, up 8.1pct from the previous week, significantly lower than the central level in the past four years (182.3%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, except for traditional Chinese medicine (down 2.8%), all sub industries of medicine ushered in a general rise this week. Among them, medical services (up 11.5%), medical devices (up 5.8%) and chemical raw materials (up 5.5%) increased significantly. Considering that the classification of CITIC pharmaceutical involves cross businesses of some companies, according to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, pharmaceutical services (up 12.0%) and characteristic API enterprises (up 8.4%) ushered in a significant increase this week. In addition, scientific research services, biological drugs, medical services and medical devices also had good increases (4.4%, 4.3%, 4.3% and 3.5% respectively).
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the “core assets” and “sector concept” so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of “grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation”.
Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, and Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) are recommended.
2) upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables and other fields, recommend Sensong international, Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) and pay attention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) .
3) innovation: for international equipment and pharmaceutical companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: consumer attributes, medical services, innovative supporting industry companies, recommend Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The price reduction of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected.
