Calendering process is still the mainstream, and lightweight and large-scale are the development trend. 1) The surface of ultra white glass produced by calendering process has special patterns, and the light transmittance of the original sheet is high (the average light transmittance of 2.0mm calendered glass is 3.6% higher than that of float glass). It is the mainstream process of photovoltaic glass. However, float glass is better in impact resistance / yield. Under the trend of light and thin photovoltaic glass, the substitutability is expected to be gradually enhanced. At present, the substitution of backplane has been gradually recognized by downstream component manufacturers. 2) Compared with single-sided components, the power generation efficiency of double-sided components can be increased by about 5% – 30%, and the life cycle is long / attenuation is slower. The warranty period of double-sided components is increased by 5 years compared with ordinary components, 30 / 25 years respectively, and the attenuation rate is 0.5/0.7 respectively, which has obvious advantages. With the launch of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass, the pain point of heavy weight / high cost of double glass module has also been solved. Under the trend of light and thin photovoltaic glass, the permeability of double-sided modules is expected to increase rapidly. We predict that the permeability of double-sided modules is expected to increase from 30% in 2020 to 60% in 2025. 3) Driven by cost reduction and efficiency increase, the trend of large-scale silicon wafer size is clear, which drives the large-scale photovoltaic glass. Small and old kilns can only meet the needs of wide size glass through transformation, so the new production line has a “late development advantage”.
Both supply and demand are booming, and prices may fluctuate at medium and low levels, with upward elasticity in stages. 1) Supply: China’s photovoltaic glass industry has developed from import dependence to global leadership. At present, the output accounts for more than 90% of the world. With the conditional liberalization of photovoltaic glass production capacity policy, the industry has entered a new round of production capacity expansion period. Considering the capacity utilization rate / original chip yield / deep processing yield, we estimate that the effective capacity of 10000 t / D corresponds to the actual output of about 7600 T / d. we expect the actual output of photovoltaic glass in 22-23 years to be about 4.4/66000 T / D, yoy + 44% / 52%. At present, the industry concentration is high, forming a duopoly pattern. With the continuous expansion of front-line manufacturers and the entry of high-quality float glass manufacturers, the market share is rapidly concentrated to leading enterprises. 2) Demand: benefiting from carbon neutralization + parity Internet access and the improvement of BIPV penetration, photovoltaic demand continues to improve. With the rapid increase of double glass permeability, we expect that the demand for photovoltaic glass in 22-23 years is about 36 / 43000 T / D, yoy + 33.2% / 20.4%. 3) Price: under the loose pattern of supply and demand, we expect the price to remain at a medium low level in 2022. Under the influence of double control of cycle bottom / energy consumption, the new supply may be lower than expected; The demand side is expected to continue to improve. Without excluding the mismatch between supply and demand in phased industries, the price has upward elasticity.
Cost is the key to competition, and the leading advantage is obvious. The product prices of various manufacturers are close, and the cost is the key to competition. The unit cost of first-line leaders Xinyi solar energy and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) is about 2 / 5 yuan / m2 lower than that of second-line / third-line manufacturers, and the corresponding 20-year gross profit margin is about 8 / 20PCT higher respectively. Leading enterprises have advantages in resources / scale / energy consumption / efficiency / depreciation / production line, etc. Leading enterprises actively distribute ultra white quartz placer resources to reduce the cost of raw materials / ensure supply; The scale of total production capacity is larger, the bargaining power of upstream is stronger, and the procurement cost of raw materials and energy is lower; The single line scale is better. Compared with small and medium-sized kilns, the unit energy consumption of large kilns can be reduced by more than 6%. At the same time, the yield is about 10-15pct higher, up to 85%, and the investment economy is better. The estimated unit depreciation is about 0.5-0.7 yuan / ㎡. In addition, under the trend of large-scale photovoltaic glass, the transformation expenditure / shutdown loss of small and old kilns are high, while the production lines of leading enterprises are relatively newer, more adaptable and more beneficial.
Investment suggestion: the industry is prosperous in supply and demand, with both growth and periodicity. At present, there may be upward elasticity at the bottom of the price cycle. It is suggested to focus on obvious cost advantages and profitability α Property, and the industry leaders Xinyi solar energy, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , and new entrants of photovoltaic glass who continue to expand production, plan to expand production on a large scale, and are expected to catch up with float glass leaders Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ; Rainbow new energy, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , and Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , the leader of ultra-thin glass technology that is expected to inject the original production capacity, are concerned about the expansion and acceleration of photovoltaic glass production capacity.
Risk warning: supply growth exceeds expectations; The demand is less than expected; The prices of raw materials and energy fluctuate sharply; Risk of using information lagging behind or not updating in time; Deviation risk of industry scale measurement.
