The price of float glass has increased significantly, and the demand for 22q2 is expected to reach a small peak
Last week, the average price of float glass in China increased by 10.51% month on month. The downstream processing plants started replenishment, and the inventory of float factories continued to be reduced. The manufacturer's inventory last week was 38.1 million weight boxes, a decrease of 5.32 million weight boxes compared with last week. The production capacity during the week was 174375t / D, which was flat month on month. Last week, the price rise of soda ash at the cost side was limited, the price of the original film increased significantly, and the profit of float glass increased significantly. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a small peak of completion in the first half of this year.
The start-up of photovoltaic module end is stable, and we continue to pay attention to the production capacity launch progress
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 19.2 and 25 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 24.11 days, up 0.84% from last week. Recently, the price of raw materials continues to rise, the operation of component end is stable, glass manufacturers execute more early orders, and the delivery and investment is OK. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 42210 tons, an increase of 2.43% month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is large, but the promotion is general. Under the current price, we think the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to [Xinyi solar energy] (joint coverage with Dianxin), [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin) and [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ] from the Perspective of dilemma reversal. The price and profit of float glass are still going down in the short term, but the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (joint coverage with the electronic group). Under the domestic substitution logic of medicinal glass, it is recommended to recommend the head enterprise of China borosilicate medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (joint coverage with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
