Main points:
Pig prices rose 1.1% to 12.46 yuan / kg on a weekly basis, and the willingness to fill the column was flat on a weekly basis.
① pig prices rose by 1.1% on a weekly basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.46 yuan / kg, up 1.1% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 19.97 yuan / kg, down 4.7% from that before the Spring Festival; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 495.14 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 149.84 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs decreased, and the willingness to make up for the slaughter was flat on a weekly basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (2.11-2.17): the proportion of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 9.84%, and the week on week ratio decreased by 0.9 percentage points, and the epidemic situation was relatively low; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 399 yuan / head, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 159% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1643 yuan / head, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 32.7% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ In January 2022, the growth rate of listed pig enterprises was differentiated. From high to low, the number of slaughter in January 2022 is Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 150.6, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 129.3, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 95.9, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 41.7, COFCO Jiakang 40.4, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 38.1, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 38.1, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 7.1, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 12.7, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 13.0, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) 4.7, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 1.5; The year-on-year growth rate of slaughter volume from high to low is Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 139.6%, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 76.6%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 50.0%, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 36.2%, COFCO Jiakang 25.5%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 21.9%, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 2.2%, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) - 16%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) - 18.0%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) - 20.4%, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) - 26.7%. ④ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The production capacity inflection point of China's pig breeding industry has appeared in June 2021. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of fertile sows in China decreased by 0%, 0.5%, 0.9%, 1.8%, 2.5% and 1.2% month on month from June to November 2021. Since October 2021, due to the sharp rebound in pig prices, farmers' enthusiasm to make up the market has stabilized and rebounded. In December, the stock of fertile sows in China increased by 0.8% month on month, and there were twists and turns in capacity removal. However, in January 2022, the number of fertile sows in China entered the downward channel again, with a month on month decrease of 0.9%. We judge that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience a bottom grinding stage in 2022, and pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023: I) since the beginning of 2021, inefficient sows have been cleared, and the efficiency of breeding pigs has continued to improve. Psy and MSY in pig breeding industry are expected to improve quarterly in 2022; II) from 2020 to 2021, a huge amount of pork imports need to be digested for two consecutive years; III) mainstream listed pig enterprises plan to increase by more than 30% in 2022. The cost of 10000 pig farms and ordinary farmers is concentrated at 13 yuan / kg. It is difficult to form effective elimination when the pig price is higher than 13 yuan / kg, and it still takes time to clear the production capacity. We estimate the average market value of each pig enterprise with the expected slaughter volume in 2022, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5772 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 5262 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1521 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2460 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2280 yuan. The valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is in the bottom area, so it is recommended to pay active attention.
The price of white feather chicken products fell by 0.8% on a week-on-week basis, and the price of yellow feather mainly fell on a week-on-week basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products fell by 0.8% on a week-on-week basis. On Friday, the price of white feather chicken was 9700 yuan / ton, down 0.8% on a weekly basis. In 2021, there were 1.2462 million sets of ancestral chicken seedlings in China, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The sales volume of parental chicken seedlings was 63.6572 million sets, with a year-on-year increase of 6%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased significantly year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices fell mainly on a weekly basis. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the "human infection h7n9 epidemic", and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of February 18, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 6.64 yuan / kg, down 11.5% month on week and 18.5% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 7.35 yuan / kg, down 7.4% month on week and 6.8% year-on-year; The average price of native chicken was 9.28 yuan / kg, down 2.3% month on week and 1.1% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 7.75 yuan / kg, up 0.8% on a weekly basis and down 12.0% year-on-year.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and the prices of corn and soybean are expected to remain high.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) the corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. III) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. ② The February report of the US Department of agriculture and the Chinese Department of agriculture supported the prices of corn and soybean. Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The February supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in February: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 was 4.83 million tons, which was the same as the predicted value in January and decreased by 3.23 million tons compared with 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China's corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. USDA's February supply and demand report predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.1%, down 2.6 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and 0.3 percentage points compared with the predicted value in January, which was at the low level since 16 / 17; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from 20 / 21, up 0.1 percentage points from the forecast value in January, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in February: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 was 170000 tons, which was the same as the predicted value in January and decreased by 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
