Under the tone of “steady and effective, appropriate and forward”, steady growth, stable domestic demand and service industry rescue policies have been introduced one after another. The main line of 2022 scenario repair investment can be optimistic:
First, the basic logic of industry and the trend of people’s pursuit of a better life are unchanged. Baijiu‘s social attributes and the “reasonable inventory, price priority” inventory regulation mechanism have been gradually improved since 2013, and variables have been restored to the residents’ consumption ability and consumer confidence. Second, the macro policy underpinning, corporate market expectations and consumer confidence are expected to be marginally strengthened. First, the double increase in social finance and credit, the increase in household savings and the purchase of financial corporate bonds, etc. pushed up m2, and the demand for cash withdrawal during the Spring Festival pushed up M0: in January, the new social finance was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan, the stock of social finance was 320.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.5% and M2 increased by 9.8%, M1 decreased by 1.9% (affected by the wrong time of the Spring Festival), and the balance of M0 was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 202.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 394.4 billion yuan. Second, on February 18, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of human resources and social security and other departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. 43 Specific relief measures for catering, tourism, retail, air transportation and other service industries were implemented, which directly benefited the micro market players and the basic employment situation of residents. In 2021, China’s GDP growth rate was 8.1%, the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to GDP growth continued to rise to 55%, and the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry has increased from 35.7% in 2011 to 47.7% in 2020. Third, considering the comprehensive factors such as covid-19 specific drug R & D approval, sequential strengthening of immunization start-up and precise prevention and control, the epidemic disturbance will be marginal weakened, and actively grasp the investment main line of scene restoration.
Consumption upgrading and consumption stratification are not contradictory. Reiterate the three major investment lines of “quality, structure and scene restoration” in 2022, grasp the long-term structural prosperity trend of Baijiu industry, and high-end Baijiu five Lu. α Certainty, high growth matching and overestimation of the secondary high-end, and steady improvement of the structure of leading products in the middle and high-end regions: 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) promote the reform and reconstruction of the marketing system, implement the “five in one marketing method”, that is, resource integration, digital integration, cultural integration, brand aggregation, management and service integration, and establish an efficient “three-level” management system of organization, operation and marketing, “five hour” promotion system “Five to” working system, “five heavy” special project system, “five strong” regiment system. 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the new leadership is expected to continue the enterprise operation reform strategy and start the annual marketing strategy: on February 18, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announced the personnel adjustment of the main leaders of the group (joint stock) Company: once served as the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the group company and the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the joint stock company; Zou Tao served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee and general manager of the group company; Jiang Wenge served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company. 3) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) 9.1 billion actively expand the production capacity of 38000 tons of base liquor. After the completion of the project, it is expected to add 18000 tons of high-quality Luzhou flavor base liquor and 20000 tons of high-quality elegant Maotai flavor base liquor. The company will supply 65000 tons of base liquor. 4) In the short term, the rising prices of raw materials such as palm oil and soybeans will still raise the costs of some food products, and it is preferred to select industry leaders with pricing power and companies with product innovation ability.
Investment suggestion: allocate three main lines and focus on regional leaders with undervalued value, high certainty and marginal improvement. Recommendations: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) etc.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Industry competition intensifies; Food safety accident risk.
