Core summary
This week’s view: this week, the financial Associated Press reported that Heze and others adjusted the down payment ratio to 20%, releasing the positive signal of deregulation of the property market; Beijing launched the “first shot” of centralized land supply in 22 cities in 2022. The first round of local auction has warmed up, and the brand real estate enterprises have actively returned to participate in the auction, or reflect that the investment enthusiasm of real estate enterprises is being repaired. In addition, the bank and AMC have taken continuous actions in the “rescue” and M & A of real estate enterprises, and actively promoted the resolution of real estate financial risks. Considering that the short-term industry fundamentals are still under pressure and the policy game space is still, it is expected to drive the continuous repair of sector valuation; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of some real estate enterprises and M & A integration within real estate enterprises, the industry pattern is expected to be reshaped, and real estate enterprises with financing, control and product advantages are expected to stand out. In terms of development, focus on the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, as well as the second-line elastic targets Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) and Longguang group benefiting from the improvement of policies. In terms of diversified business, the valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, the performance has increased steadily, and the cost performance continues to highlight. We are optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, such as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, and commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, such as Xingsheng commerce.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Heze: the down payment ratio of “no house, no loan” was reduced from 30% to 20%; 2) Beijing: the heat of the first round of land supply rebounded, and central state-owned enterprises are still the main force of land acquisition
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover rebounded month on month, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. 36000 new houses were sold this week (February 12-february 18), up 56.9% month on month; 10000 second-hand houses were sold, up 44.9% month on month. In January, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 31.3% year-on-year, an increase of 13.0 PCT over the previous month. With the resumption of work after the festival, the transaction has warmed up, but due to the cautious influence of supply and demand, the short-term transaction will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand decreased month on month. In January 2022, among the transactions of commercial houses in 32 cities, the number of units above 90 square meters decreased by 1.1pct to 76.4% month on month. 3) Inventories fell slightly month on month, and were relatively stable in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 101.09 million square meters, down 0.9% month on month. The inventory may be relatively stable under the pressure of slowing down short-term supply and deregulation. 4) Land transactions increased month on month, the premium rate fell, and the proportion of first-line and second-line transactions increased. Affected by the low transaction base of land supply during the Spring Festival holiday, the land supply construction area of Baicheng was 14.385 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 6.179 million square meters last week, rising month on month; The transaction premium rate was 3.3%, down 2.6pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 4%, 30.4% and 65.7% respectively, with a month on month increase of 4pct, an increase of 30.4pct and a decrease of 34.3pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: the issuance of domestic real estate bonds this week was 12.47 billion yuan, an increase of 12.47 billion yuan month on month; Offshore foreign debt issuance. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 2.77 billion yuan this week, an increase of 360 million yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 0.73% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (+ 1.08%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.48 times, and the valuation is in the quantile of 21.7% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north were Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net inflow of funds from the South serve China overseas development, Zhengrong real estate and Jinke.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
