Key changes this week (0214-0218): ① on February 15, the second round of price adjustment of clinker along the river increased by 30 yuan / ton. ② The average price of float glass in China this weekend was 2398.62 yuan / ton, up 228.21 yuan / ton or 10.51% from last week. ③ The media learned that the four major banks in Heze lowered the down payment ratio of personal housing loans, and the down payment ratio of home buyers without housing and loans decreased from the previous lowest 30% to the lowest 20% (source: Netease News). ④ Before and after the Spring Festival, many banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province have reduced the down payment ratio of the first house loan to 20% (source: Cailian).
Core view:
(1) we continue to be optimistic about the TOC retail model, reduce the down payment ratio in some regions, release the positive signal on the demand side, and the trend of rigid demand and back-end decoration is better. We continue to be optimistic about the retail and distribution model and pay attention to cash flow and profit margin. Core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit, concentric circle speed-up; Focus on C + small B [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ].
(2) the second round of price increase of cement clinker: on February 15, the price of cement clinker along the Yangtze River Delta increased for the second round, with a range of 30 yuan / ton. The main reason is that after the first round of clinker price increase, the grinding station has higher enthusiasm for goods preparation, and after the Spring Festival, various enterprises continue to carry out peak shift production or kiln shutdown maintenance, and the clinker inventory digests rapidly, which promotes the clinker price to rise again. With the second round of increase in clinker prices, cement prices in some areas are expected to rise steadily.
(3): from the end of 21q4 policy to the end of 22q1 market, the real estate chain may be more optimistic. The introduction of the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds and the 5-year LPR reduction are conducive to the restoration of market confidence. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market. We judge that we are expected to see marginal improvements in front-end sales, construction and other data in the next quarter. We believe that the real estate chain may be more optimistic. Combined with the volume of social finance, the valuation directly reflects the expectation, and will be accompanied by the increase in the performance expectation of leading companies in 2022. The consumption of building materials and cement directly benefited from the improvement of the front end, and the completion and delivery of glass were accelerated. At the current time point, the second-line leaders have greater flexibility in performance repair, and the first-line leaders have stronger sustainability. They pay attention to the significant improvement of the external environment of the real estate chain, the repair of performance expectations, and the baptism of the bottom. At the same time, the concentration has increased, and the voice of large downstream real estate developers has been weakened accordingly. Core targets include [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ], elastic targets [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ] [ Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ]. In addition, at the end of January, many companies issued performance forecasts for 2021, increased the credit loss rate of real estate customers based on the principle of prudence, and made provision for impairment of some customers. We believe that since the risk fermentation in the second half of 2020, the market has expected that the provision is sufficient, the impairment risk is fully released, and consumer building materials and building decoration enterprises are expected to be light in 2022.
(4) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof. In January, social finance greatly exceeded expectations, and there was no shortage of projects and funds for infrastructure, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1 economy. Growth + cycle focus on water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], robustness + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], and pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ].
(5) the price of glass has increased continuously, and some manufacturers in Shahe have lined up to pull goods. It is suggested to pay attention to the replenishment demand, completion order backfilling and cost addition, and focus on the target [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ]. The recent decline in futures is expected to have little to do with fundamentals.
(6) new materials throughout the year: carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass, medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
