Banking stocks: the industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 1.10%, 5.03% and 7.47% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 29th, 10th and 3rd among the 31 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the share prices of listed banks generally fell. The shares of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) rose to 2.47%, 1.29% and 0.53% respectively. On a monthly basis, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) and Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) share prices rose by 9.63%, 7.59%, 7.21% and 7.18% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: the net withdrawal of money and the rise of inter-bank market interest rate
The total amount of money put in this week was 50 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 300 billion yuan, and the net return of money was 250 billion yuan, a decrease of 550 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has achieved a net return of 850 billion yuan.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate increased.
On February 18, dr001 was 2.16%, an increase of 31bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.15%, up 13bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 2.16%, up 31bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.32%, up 14 BPS from last Friday.
The issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit decreased
This week, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. Compared with the previous month, the interbank interest rates of deposit certificates were – 59.2% and – 2.2% respectively, which were – 43.8bp and – 2.2% respectively.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds narrowed and the term interest spread of US bonds widened
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds increased, and the term spread narrowed. On February 18, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 1.98% and 2.80% respectively, with changes of + 6bps and + 1bp respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.82%, down 5bps from last Friday.
This week, the yield of 1y US bonds decreased, the yield of 10Y US bonds was basically the same as that of last Friday, and the term interest margin expanded. On February 18, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.03% and 1.92% respectively, which were – 4bps and flat compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.89%, up 4bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity indicators: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises increased, and the yield of tips increased
(1) on February 17, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) On February 18, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.74%, an increase of 30bps compared with last Friday; (3) On February 18, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.49%, up 2bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
The bank index fell this week, but in the context of global liquidity contraction, the selection of individual stocks is still the main means to combat risks, and the allocation value of the bank sector is still prominent. Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommended order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
