Reduce the proportion of down payment in many places and loosen the demand side policy. According to the China Securities News, several banks in Heze City, Shandong Province lowered the down payment ratio of personal housing loans in the city, and the down payment ratio of “no house, no loan” buyers fell to a minimum of 20%. Since this year, many places have carried out policy regulation of the real estate market, which is in line with our previous judgment that more favorable policies are on the way. The decline in the proportion of down payment has strong signal significance. We judge that more second and third tier small and medium-sized cities will follow up, and it is expected to gradually expand from provident fund loans to commercial bank loans.
Market review: the increase is in the middle and later stage, 1.84 percentage points behind the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was – 0.8%, 1.84 percentage points behind the market, ranking second among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 66 stocks rose this week and 71 stocks fell. (this week in the report refers to the week from February 12 to February 18).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities this week was 3.213 million square meters, an increase of 19.9% year-on-year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in the same period last year, the data in some cities were vacant during the Spring Festival, and the year-on-year data were abnormally high. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 790000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of 98.0%; The sample of second tier cities was 1.607 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 43.1%; The sample of third tier cities was 816000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 29.6%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in 12 key cities this week totaled 840000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Like Xinfang, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in the same period, the year-on-year data is abnormally high. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 249000 square meters,; 472000 m3 in the second tier cities of the sample; The sample third tier cities are 118000 square meters. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 5.787 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 43.8%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 1.64 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 52.5%; The sample of second tier cities was 3.378 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 35.9%; The sample of third tier cities was 769000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 35.9%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: real estate enterprises resumed issuing bonds, and the interest rate generally decreased. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 11 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (2.14-2.20); The total issuance scale is 12.77 billion yuan, the total repayment amount is 2.786 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is 9.984 billion yuan. The bond interest rates of high-speed real estate (- 100bp), Jinmao China (- 45bp), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 30bp), Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 26bp) and other companies decreased compared with the comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, and the “overweight” rating is given to the real estate development sector. Previously, we judged that the strength of this round of policies is still insufficient. We expect that more policies are in the way, and the main direction is to improve the capital and demand side of enterprises. Subsequently, the proportion of down payment in many places decreased, confirming the logic of demand side policy improvement. We believe that “the policy continues to be favorable – the industry fundamentals are bottomed out and are expected to recover later – the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and the gross profit margin of land acquisition will be repaired” is the main logic of 2022, which will reach the three-level resonance upward of fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to real estate enterprises, including A-Shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, sales are lower than expected, the strength of real estate tax policy is higher than expected, and the credit default of real estate enterprises and its impact spread risk.
