Event:
Recently, listed insurance companies have successively released the premium income data in January 2022. In January 2022, the growth rate of total premium income of listed insurance enterprises was lower than that in the same period last year. From the original monthly premium income in January, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 207.2 billion yuan (yoy-5.34%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) 136.5 billion yuan (YoY + 1.21%), The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) 115.5 billion yuan (YoY + 17.89%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 76.9 billion yuan (YoY + 2.29%), China Taiping 39 billion yuan (yoy-5.05%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 35.9 billion yuan (YoY + 3.58%) and Zhong'an online 2 billion yuan (+ 12.38%).
Comments:
I. personal insurance: listed insurance companies had a "good start" in January, and the liability side was still restricted
\u3000\u30001. From the perspective of single month premium, the cumulative original premium income of life insurance of listed insurance companies in January increased year-on-year: The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (+ 22.75%) > New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (+ 3.58%) > Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 0.81%) > China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 1.13%) > China Taiping (- 5.03%) > China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 5.34%). In addition to the rapid growth of The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , most of them showed a negative growth trend. The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) the original monthly premium income of life insurance was 46.6 billion yuan, yoy + 30.16%; Health insurance is 8.5 billion yuan, yoy-6.56%. The main contribution to the growth rate of The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) is the life insurance premium income, in which the growth rate of single payment new orders is brilliant, with a year-on-year increase of + 136.61%.
\u3000\u30002. The inflection point at the liability end of life insurance has not yet appeared, and the "good start" is generally under pressure. Affected by last year's high base effect, this year's "good start" is generally under pressure, but it is in line with market expectations. It is expected that the second quarter will improve due to the low base of last year, but considering the constraints of multiple factors such as the sharp reduction of the number of agents and the delay of the "good start", the improvement is expected to be small.
II. Property insurance: the growth rate of listed insurance companies is obvious, and the double-digit growth of auto insurance is higher than expected
From the perspective of monthly premium, the year-on-year growth rate of the original monthly premium income of property insurance of listed insurance enterprises in January is: The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (+ 13.78%) > China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (+ 12.67%) > Zhong'an online (+ 12.38%) > Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (+ 8.21%) > China Taiping (- 5.21%). Among them, PICC Property Insurance realized a year-on-year increase of 14.5% in the original monthly premium income of auto insurance in January, and a year-on-year increase of 13.18% in the original monthly premium income of non auto insurance.
Since October last year, the pressure of comprehensive reform of auto insurance has gradually weakened, and the premium income of auto insurance has increased year-on-year (October + 2.2%, November + 6.6%, December + 7.4%). With the rigid demand driven by the car ownership and the release of stock risk in non auto insurance, it is expected that the annual performance of property insurance is expected to reap the "two wheel drive" of auto insurance and non auto insurance.
III. asset side: focus on "steady growth" and "broad credit" and promote the valuation repair of listed insurance companies
The government's macro-control still aims at "stable growth". The real estate financing policy is relaxed and the policy is strengthened to alleviate the worries and expectations of insurance enterprises on the asset side and the real estate investment risks of insurance companies. It is expected that the long-term interest rate will be difficult to decline or stabilize and recover in the later stage. As of February 18, 2022, the YTM of 10-year Treasury bonds has reached 2.8%. On January 24, the long-term interest rate has hit a low point, and the volume and price of credit instruments have made concerted efforts. Superimposed on the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March, it is expected that the long-term interest rate will stabilize and recover in the future. The marginal improvement of the asset side of listed insurance companies will benefit the company's stock price. At present, the valuation of insurance stocks is at a historical low, and it is expected that the valuation will be repaired; It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with high dividend yield.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to the listed insurance companies with low valuation and high dividend rate, recommend China Property Insurance with significantly narrowed risk exposure and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H) actively promoting transformation.
Risk tip: the long-term interest rate is lower than expected; The premium growth is less than expected; Economic recovery is limited by repeated outbreaks
