Sub industry core week view
Vehicle: the sales volume in China in January was not weak in the off-season, and the overseas market as a whole met expectations. 1) China: 41.2/347000 vehicles were sold in batches according to the standards of the passenger Federation in January, and the overall off-season is not light; Overseas: 127000 vehicles were sold in 10 major European countries, with a yoy of + 33% / – 48%, in line with expectations. The sales volume of 54000 vehicles in the United States in January fell slightly month on month, exceeding expectations. According to our grassroots research, the sales volume planning goal of the head main engine factory in 22 years is ambitious, and the increment of terminal sales may further focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain. 2) How much does price shock affect car sales? Based on the historical experience such as the oil crisis in the 1970s, we believe that the fluctuations of GDP and automobile sales are basically the same, while industrial shocks such as the rise of oil prices and bulk raw materials produce more structural effects and have less impact on the overall sales. This is because cars are different from other consumer goods. Cars are one of the consumer goods with the widest selling price.
Parts: focus on the supply chain of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other leading car companies incrementally, and focus on the track with large marginal increase in penetration and localization rate. We expect that the volume elasticity of the whole vehicle link in 22 years will focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain; Intellectualization is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. From the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. The focus is on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; 2) The direction of increasing localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields.
Battery: the price system fluctuates in this round, and the competitive advantage of strong bargaining leader is expected to expand. Focus on the changes in profit distribution caused by price transmission in the industrial chain. 1. In February, the off-season of midstream production scheduling is not light. From March, the new production capacity of midstream head company will be put into operation gradually, and the chain ratio of production scheduling will be greatly improved. The sector has recently retreated to near pe30x in 22 years and entered the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with accelerated localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
1. Sales volume: the sales volume of electric vehicles in China in January exceeded expectations, and there is no risk of short-term fluctuation. 2. Tesla cargo ship tracking in February: as of February 14, Tesla has sent 13 cargo ships in 22 years, including 11 cargo ships in January and 2 cargo ships in February. 3. Comments on electrolyte industry chain: build a lithium battery material platform to further improve the market competitiveness. 4. Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) : Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once again launched the overweight company lithium iron phosphate, and the leader of high-end lithium iron power battery is about to take off. 5. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) comments: join hands with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Huayou holdings, etc. to increase the strategic layout of Yuxi new energy. 6. Beiteri comments: continue to expand the capacity of silicon anode on a large scale and wait for the outbreak of the industry. 7. Sales volume of new forces in January of the 22nd year: Farewell to the old and welcome the new, and the new forces are happy to make a good start! 8. Autoinnovate released the production and sales data of electric vehicles in the United States in January 22.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
