\u3000\u30001. Personal care: in 2022, the sales of various categories of M1 personal care decreased year-on-year, but the high-end trend of the industry is obvious. By category, the sales of paper towels / wet wipes on Alibaba platform decreased by 15.0% year-on-year in 2022m1; Sales of sanitary napkins / private care in 2022m1 decreased by 22.3% year-on-year; Diaper sales in 2022m1 decreased by 22.2% year-on-year; Adult diaper care sales in 2022m1 decreased by 30.9% year-on-year. By brand, the market share of major brands increased in 2021, and jierou grew steadily among the four major brands. In terms of sanitary napkins, the market share of head enterprises continued to increase. In terms of sub categories, the sales of pants type sanitary napkins, sanitary napkins, pads, private lotion and private maintenance categories accounted for 15.5%, 62.5%, 3.7%, 9.7% and 5.5% respectively. The penetration rate of pants type sanitary napkins and pads increased rapidly. By brand, hushubao and Leya 2022m1 maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 26.7% / + 59.7% respectively. In terms of adult diaper care, due to the weak performance of the market, the sales of major brands fell year-on-year. In terms of baby diapers, the trend of high-end industry is obvious, and Biba baby and BabyCare are growing rapidly.
\u3000\u30002. Software: 2022m1 software sales increased by 56.5% year-on-year, Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) with a beautiful growth rate. In January 2022, the overall sales of software category increased by 56.5% year-on-year, including sofa + 91.1% year-on-year and mattress – 20.5% year-on-year. In terms of sofa, the sales of lazy sofa 2022m1 were + 177.3% month on month, and the sales accounted for 6.7% in January 2022. In terms of mattresses, Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) grew rapidly, and the proportion of spring mattress sales increased significantly. The sales of spring mattress 2022m1 increased by 45.3% year-on-year, accounting for 35.5%. In terms of brands, Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) has a bright growth rate, and the sales volume of 2022m1 Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) has increased by 43.5% year-on-year.
\u3000\u30003. Stationery & Trendy play: the decline of stationery sector narrowed year-on-year, and the market share of Chenguang increased year-on-year; Bubble Mart in the fashion industry continues its beautiful performance. In terms of stationery, the overall sales of 2022m1 stationery decreased by 19.3% year-on-year and 38.8% month on month. In terms of sub categories, the sales of writing tools, paper books, painting tools / painting materials / calligraphy tools and daily learning supplies 2022m1 decreased by 44.7%, 36.2%, 19.4% and 28.5% respectively year-on-year. 2022m1 Deli sales accounted for 6.6% of the market, with a year-on-year increase of -0.9pp; Chenguang 2022m1 sales accounted for 5.2% of the market, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6pp. In terms of tide play, in 2022m1, the sales volume of tide play industry was – 3.8% year on year and – 20% month on month. Among them, the sales volume of bubble mart 2022m1 was + 25.2% year on year and – 6.3% month on month, accounting for 5.7% (year on year + 1.3pp). Head IP, such as dimoo House series, skullpanda dense forest castle series / spacemolly series, achieved beautiful sales performance; The sales of Wandai 2022m1 decreased by 36.9% year-on-year and 26.6% month on month, accounting for 6.7% (year-on-year – 3.6pp).
Investment suggestions: furniture sector: 1) undervalued leaders [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], [Minhua holdings], [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] that are continuously differentiated from the industry; 2) Basically good for [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] with low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to [ Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) ], [ Henglin Home Furnishings Co.Ltd(603661) ] and [ Ue Furniture Co.Ltd(603600) ]. The short-term performance of student stationery is weak due to the impact of the loss of confidence in picking up goods through terminal channels under the double reduction policy. We expect it to be repaired in 2021q4. We recommend industry leaders with stable operation and more callback [ Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) ].
Risk warning: exchange rate and raw material price fluctuate greatly; The completion and sales of the real estate do not meet the expectations; The sales channel structure fails to form an adaptive transformation; Macroeconomic recovery did not meet expectations; Accuracy of data statistics.
