Market review last week:
Last week (February 14-february 18, 2022), the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) rose 2.97%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.08%. The food and beverage sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17 percentage points, ranking seventh in the weekly rise and fall of Shenwan's 31 primary sub industries.
Core view: grasp the opportunities of sector allocation and internal differentiation
Baijiu: grasp the opportunity of sector allocation, and divide the opportunities of internal differentiation. The Baijiu sector is running smoothly, and the progress of the listed companies is in line with the expectation. The inventory of high-end liquor is at a low level, and the price has not yet fluctuated significantly. The whole sector is better than the market expected. The structural market will continue, and some areas of high-end Baijiu are less affected by the epidemic. The return to home data is higher than expected overall performance, and there will be regional replenishment after the Spring Festival. Looking forward to 2022, the "stable and high-quality growth" of high-end wine will become the main theme of 2022 and lay the foundation for sustainable allocation. Under the credit expansion, high-end liquor opens up the space for sub high-end capacity expansion, and consumption upgrading contributes to large-scale growth. In 2021, the share price of Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) of the high-end Baijiu increased significantly, mainly in 2020 low base, and the regional expansion of the second high-end Baijiu liquor, and made great progress in the nationalization process. At the beginning of 2022, the stock price corrected, and the market was worried that the valuation of the secondary high-end was high, while the expectation of economic weakness might not support the rapid growth of its performance. From the perspective of consumption upgrading and national sales, the Baijiu liquor is expected to have strong growth. From the perspective of volume, the nationalization process of the secondary high-end is good at present. In addition to the advantageous market, there is still a large blank market, and the market share needs to be improved; From the perspective of price, the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) opens up the space for price increase of secondary high-end. At the current time point, the performance and valuation of secondary high-end liquor enterprises are highly adaptable. Peg such as shede and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) have been less than 1, and the growth of future performance is expected to continue.
Beer: the high-end trend is highly deterministic, focusing on the transmission of leading price increases and the competition of channel power. Affected by the local epidemic, cold winter and Beijing Winter Olympic Games, the current drinking channel has been suppressed, but the overall sales volume has not been affected. Qingdao classic achieved high growth in January. After the price increase, the terminal mobile sales performed well, which can verify that the price increase was conducted smoothly. The consumption scene of Wusu large single products is positioned as barbecue and large food stalls. The sales volume in January is relatively flat. However, its high channel profit makes the terminal thrust more active, and the smooth implementation of price increase transmission can be expected. As the weather warms up after the Lantern Festival and the business rate of catering terminals increases, this is an important window period for price increase transmission.
Condiment: there is enough space for long-term leading integration, waiting for the demand to boost. From the perspective of terminal dynamic sales, the terminal dynamic sales of basic condiments are slightly flat, the demand side has not been significantly repaired, and the channel inventory has increased compared with the same period last year. At present, the goods age of major enterprises is 3-4 months, and the overall price increase is relatively smooth; The market competition of compound condiments has increased, the inventory is benign, and the promotion is increasing. The Chinese compound discount is even 50-60%. At present, the inflection point of demand side boosting is difficult to confirm. Q1 has insufficient advantages on the statement side due to the high base last year, and the community group purchase and cost suppression have been basically alleviated. In 2021, the industry performance is under pressure. Under the current situation that the industry capacity tends to be saturated and the competition is intensifying, this round of adjustment of condiments is expected to help the leader to improve the concentration. Investment advice
Plate allocation: Baijiu > beer > dairy products > snack food > condiment;
Baijiu: we should pay attention to the potential Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and sub high end liquor enterprises. Beer: it is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) of product structure optimization and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) of Wusu volume; Dairy products: it is suggested to focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in the three aspects of production capacity, channels and products.
Risk tips:
Baijiu price rise less than expected, terminal demand fell, food safety issues.
