Summary of strategic meeting Views:
1, the Baijiu industry: the boom will continue, high-end and secondary high-end will continue to expand, focusing on the long-term impact of sauce wine variables. 1) The prosperity of the industry remains unchanged, and the upgrading of consumption promotes the structural growth of the industry to the price belt of secondary high-end and above. Moutai price opens the price space for the industry, consumption upgrading has become the leading factor in the growth of Baijiu industry. 2) The high-end price belt expanded rapidly after the epidemic, and Maotai 1935 is expected to become a large increment of the 1000 yuan price belt in the future. Maotai 1935 is expected that the price will stabilize at about 1000 yuan, and its share in the 1000 yuan price band may gradually increase with the release of volume. 3) The volume and price of the sub high-end price segment will continue to increase, and sauce and wine may become an important variable affecting the pattern of the sub high-end industry. Sauce wine has experienced the hot sauce wine in the past two years. We believe that the hot sauce wine competition will enter a more rational second half, the status of brand sauce wine will be more consolidated, and brand sauce wine will increase the competition in the sub high-end price segment, which will become an important influencing variable of pattern change.
Reiterated: high-end Baijiu certainty priority + positive embrace secondary high-end flexibility. Give priority to the certainty of high-end liquor and pay attention to the positive changes, such as the optimization of internal operation after the completion of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel, the progress of channel reform in Maotai, etc; As for the secondary high-end, we believe that 2022 is still in the fast lane, and we will select individual stocks from the perspective of brand strength, channel profit and regional consumption upgrading. Focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , and pay attention to Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) .
2. Beer industry: in 2022, the volume and price of mainstream liquor enterprises have a foundation, and the certainty of profit improvement is strong. In 2021q4, affected by the epidemic and the rise of raw material costs, industrial sales and profits continue to be under pressure. 1) Looking forward to 2022, the simultaneous rise of volume and price of mainstream liquor enterprises has a foundation. The demand for beer during the Spring Festival is still relatively strong, the sales volume is expected to continue to increase year-on-year in the follow-up peak season, and the price increase of beer products continues to be transmitted to the terminal. 2) The high-end logic of the industry continues to be deduced, and the profit improvement of leading liquor enterprises in 2022 is highly uncertain. Many places and enterprises in China have formed a good epidemic feedback and emergency response mechanism, the consumption potential of residents’ mass goods is still strong, and the consumer demand has recovered and the scene has warmed up; With the pressure margin of subsequent upstream costs falling, coupled with strong demand and price increase, the performance of leading companies is expected to usher in greater flexibility. Recommend Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and actively pay attention to China Resources beer and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announcement comments: personnel changes landing, releasing positive signals
1) personnel changes are officially implemented, the management is successfully changed, the internal optimization of the company can be expected, and the month on month operation can continue to be expected; 2) In 2021, the operation was steady, the dynamic sales were active, the product structure continued to upgrade and the channel reform was further promoted, laying a foundation for high-quality development in 2022; 3) The current valuation has advantages and actively pays attention to the improvement of subsequent market rating and the promotion of internal incentives.
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the recovery of food demand is less than expected, and food safety problems
