\u3000\u3000 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012)
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) launched a new hi-mo5m54 single-sided module, which is expected to explore the distributed photovoltaic market
On February 16, 2022, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) launched a new hi-mo5m single-sided component version 54. The original version 72 module is mainly used in large-scale power stations, while the version 54 module is expected to open up the distributed photovoltaic market with broad growth space by virtue of its advantages in power, efficiency and size. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 11.612/147.03/18.855 billion yuan, EPS is 2.15/2.72/3.48 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 32.0/25.2/19.7 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The hi-mo5m 72 single-sided component has been shipped with 10GW, and the 54 version has obvious advantages in power and efficiency
Hi-mo5m 72 single-sided components are widely recognized, and the 54 version is expected to develop the distributed roof market. In June 2020, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) released hi-mo5m72 components, which are mainly used in large utility power stations. By the end of 2021, the cumulative global shipment of 72 components had exceeded 10GW, which was widely recognized by the market. The 54 version launched this time follows the 182mm battery size, with a maximum power of 415w and an output efficiency of 21.25%. Compared with the same size components of distributed leading enterprises, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) has the highest power of 380W, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) has the highest power of 405W, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 54 components have obvious advantages in power and efficiency, and are expected to develop the distributed roof market.
The distributed market has higher return on investment and broad growth space in the future
Thanks to the higher rate of return on investment, the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic has accounted for more than 50%, and there is a broad space for growth in the future. If the module price is 1.95 yuan / W, the unit investment cost of centralized photovoltaic power station is 4.2 yuan / W; The unit investment cost of distributed photovoltaic power station is 3.2 yuan / W, which is significantly lower than that of centralized photovoltaic power station. If the calculation is based on full access to the Internet, the total return on investment of the distributed photovoltaic power station project is 3% higher than that of the centralized one. In 2021, China’s installed capacity of PV increased by 53gw, and that of distributed PV increased by 29gw. The newly added proportion exceeded 50% for the first time, and the cumulative proportion steadily increased to 35.1% from 13.3% in 2016. However, compared with the current global distributed PV, which accounts for 79% of the total installed capacity, and developed countries such as Japan and Australia account for more than 99%, China’s distributed PV still has great room for growth. In 2022, China’s distributed new installed capacity is expected to reach 40gw. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the total distributed new capacity is expected to exceed 250gw, with an average annual new capacity of 50gw. The total growth space is expected to reach 680-1080gw based on the total distributed resources of 1000-1500gw and the cumulative proportion of 79%.
Risk warning: the feedback of new product market is less than expected, and the growth of distributed market in the future is less than expected
