\u3000\u3000 Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (603348)
New energy promotes the revolution of integrated die casting process
Integrated die casting is essentially a high-pressure casting process, which was first promoted by Tesla. In the original design, several separate and scattered small parts are redesigned and highly integrated, and then formed at one time by using a large die casting machine. The advantages of integrated die casting are mainly reflected in cost reduction, lightweight and improvement of production efficiency. Under the Tesla demonstration effect, Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng have followed up the process. According to the industrial chain information and Chinese and foreign media, Huawei / Thalis, Ford, Volkswagen, Zhiji, Xiaomi and other automobile enterprises are planning, and the automobile industry is setting off an integrated die casting process revolution. According to Tesla‘s plan, the application scope of body integration will penetrate from the rear seat sector to the front body and chassis battery tray. The value of a single car can be seen at least 8000 yuan, and the market prospect is broad.
Integrated die casting process is a systematic barrier, which is embodied in the control of materials, molds and die casting process
Material end: the specification of integrated casting is larger and cannot be heat treated. It needs the innovation of material end to develop special heat-free aluminum alloy materials. Die end: the integrated die is large, the runner design is complex, and the wall thickness changes a lot, which has an important impact on the product molding. Process control: the integrated body parts are larger and the forming time is longer than small parts. Therefore, the intervention and control requirements for the forming process are high. It is necessary to ensure the consistency of the front-end and end properties, mechanical properties (tensile, yield, elongation, bending angle, etc.) and yield of the products.
The accumulation of large-scale aluminum die-casting body parts in the past 10 years has cast the future star of integrated die-casting
The company has 10 years of experience in aluminum die-casting body parts, which is the basis for the company to make integrated die-casting body parts, because integrated die-casting is a larger and more integrated body part. Body parts have very high requirements for strength, elongation and weldability due to their supporting and impact resistance to cars. It is very difficult to prepare materials and die-casting. Over the years, the company has continuously developed and improved high vacuum die-casting technology, die technology applied to high vacuum die-casting, special material development or preparation technology and related production process technology. It has successively supplied aluminum die-casting body parts for Tesla, Mercedes Benz, velai and other medium and high-end models, and accumulated rich technology and mass production experience. The company began to reserve body integration technology in 2020 and has obtained two major orders. We believe that the expansion progress of the company’s integrated die casting customers is expected to exceed expectations and will fully enjoy the Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) trend dividend.
Profit forecast and valuation
The trend of integrated die-casting industry is clear and the manufacturing process threshold is high. The company has accumulated deep in large aluminum die-casting body structural parts and has an absolute leading advantage. It has obtained several major orders. We believe that the expansion progress of integrated die-casting customers of the company is expected to exceed expectations and will fully enjoy the dividend of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) trend. At the same time, the company fully embraces new energy, The product lines are arranged around the body, chassis, big three power, battery tray / energy storage box. There are abundant new energy orders in hand, the business structure will be continuously optimized, and the profitability is expected to continue to improve. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.1 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan and 6.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.7%, 33.9% and 27.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 0.8/3.9/600 billion yuan, The year-on-year growth rate was 0.7% / 358.6% / 54.1%, EPS was 0.33/1.49/2.30 yuan / share, and the corresponding P / E was 140.81/30.7/19.93, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The global core shortage and epidemic situation have repeatedly affected the prosperity of the global automobile industry; The progress of integrated die casting is less than expected; Aluminum prices rise
