\u3000\u3000 Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (002088)
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021, and the annual operating revenue was 3.164 billion yuan, an increase of 36.04% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 535 million yuan, an increase of 44.41% at the same time; The net profit of non parent company is RMB 5.95 billion, and the net profit of non parent company is RMB 2.25 billion. In the fourth quarter alone, the company's revenue was 879 million yuan, an increase of 7.59% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 131 million yuan, with a decrease of 11.49%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 129 million yuan, with a decrease of 1.53%.
Comments:
The expansion of production capacity promoted the rapid growth of performance, and the operation of single Q4 was in line with expectations: in 2021, the company continued to promote the reform of marketing system, fully released the production capacity of medium and low-end thermal insulation products, expanded the production capacity with technological transformation, and increased product sales promoted the rise of profits. In the fourth quarter, the production restriction policy affected the exertion of production capacity efficiency. At the same time, the cost also increased due to the rise of raw and fuel materials and other prices to varying degrees. The price increase of the company's products lags behind, so it has a certain impact on the performance in the short term. However, with the disappearance of performance disturbance factors, the overall operation is still stable. The expansion logic of ceramic fiber demand is still deducting, and the performance ceiling is expected to rise continuously: the trend of the national energy conservation and carbon reduction policy remains unchanged. The national development and Reform Commission and four departments recently issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 Edition), so as to promote science to do a good job in the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas. As an important thermal insulation material for industry, ceramic fiber will continue to expand the market space of the industry. Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) is also focusing on the development and promotion of its products, constantly cultivating the market, not limited to the petrochemical field with traditional advantages, and increasing the layout in the steel, nonferrous metals and fire prevention markets.
Re entering the production capacity expansion cycle, both technological transformation and new construction: the company is accelerating the pace of production capacity expansion. Under the background of demand expansion, the certainty of sales growth has been greatly improved. By the end of 2020, the company's ceramic fiber production capacity was 360000 tons. In 2021, the company continued to increase production capacity through technological transformation. We judge that it may have reached 480000 tons by the end of 21. In the future, with the further technological transformation and expansion of the company and the production of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the production capacity in 22 years is expected to reach 600000 tons.
Product competitive advantage supports the deterministic growth of performance: the company's early production capacity has been fully released in 2021. It is true that it has benefited from the withdrawal of some small and medium-sized production capacity, but it still relies on the reform of marketing system and the transformation of management system to enlarge its competitive advantage on the basis of leading cost advantage. We believe that the company's competitiveness and growth logic will not change in 2022. With capacity expansion, the performance will achieve steady growth. Profit forecast and valuation rating: the policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction is continuously promoted, and the industry demand is expected to continue to expand, opening the ceiling of the company's performance. The reform of the company's marketing system has promoted the full release of production capacity. Now it has accelerated into the production capacity expansion cycle, and the certainty of performance growth is strong. We maintain the company's net profit forecast of 543 million yuan, 659 million yuan and 791 million yuan for 21-23 years, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of industry demand is less than expected; The increase of the company's market share is less than expected; New business expansion is less than expected; The recovery of rock wool business was less than expected; The proportion of cash dividends decreased significantly.
