\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
Core view
The annual profit increased significantly year-on-year, and the performance in the fourth quarter was lower than the market expectation. The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.04-4.47 billion yuan, deducting non net profit of 3.96-4.38 billion yuan. According to the median estimation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 4.25 billion yuan, yoy + 133%. 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company: 600 million yuan, yoy-2.4%. The high growth of annual performance is due to the high vision of 21q1-q3 glass industry.
The decline of industry prosperity has led to pressure on 21q4 performance. 21q4, in the environment of tightening the real estate capital chain and rising raw material prices, the price of float glass fell unilaterally. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average unit price of float glass 21q3 / Q4 is 152.2/119.4 yuan / heavy container respectively. At the same time, the average unit price of soda ash (heavy soda) increased from 2435 yuan / ton in 21q3 to 3362 yuan / ton in 21q4. The decline of 21q4 industry prosperity exceeded market expectations.
The worst moment of float glass industry has passed, and it is expected to maintain a considerable profit level in 2022. Looking forward to 2022, we expect that although the growth rate of completed real estate area has declined, it will still maintain a small growth and form a strong support for the demand for glass. On the supply side, due to the strict control of new production capacity and the relatively high profitability in 21 years, the actual cold repair situation is expected to be lower than the theoretical value. Under the expectation that there is no downward trend in the price of the original float film, it is difficult to have centralized cold repair. In addition, the resumption of production and new ignition production lines are expected to continue, resulting in a further increase in production capacity. On the cost side, we judge that soda ash and fuel prices will remain high. To sum up, compared with 21 years, the price of float glass increased at the bottom and decreased at the top in 22 years, and the central price is expected to decrease slightly. At the current time point, we think we can be appropriately optimistic about the glass industry in the whole year.
Emerging businesses are advancing steadily and are expected to improve the valuation center. The company's new photovoltaic calendered glass production line is advancing steadily, and its contribution to the company's revenue and profit is expected to increase from 2022 to 2023. According to the company's announcement, the second line of electronic glass is expected to be ignited in 22 years, and the top two cover glass is expected to be mass produced. The second line of medicinal glass is also expected to be put into operation at the end of 22, and the total daily melting volume of medicinal glass will reach 65t / d. with the continuous promotion of consistency evaluation and the continuous release of pharmaceutical glass production capacity, it will become a new profit growth point. New businesses have high growth expectations and should be given a higher valuation level. With the steady progress of new businesses, the company's valuation center is expected to improve.
Considering the rise of float glass raw materials and the slowdown of photovoltaic glass production, we lowered the company's profit expectation. Prediction of eps1 in 21-23 years 59 / 1.38/1.71 yuan (originally estimated at 1.83 / 2.04 / 2.33). Referring to the adjusted average valuation level of comparable companies, the company was given 13xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 17.94 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Real estate investment fell sharply, the cost of raw materials increased rapidly, the prices of float and photovoltaic glass fluctuated sharply, and the promotion of emerging businesses was less than expected
