\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Event: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) announced on February 20, 2022 that Jilin Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) Pharmaceutical Chemistry Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a new batch of supply contracts for related products with a long-term customer of a small molecule innovative drug cdmo, with a contract amount equivalent to about 3.542 billion yuan.
The third large order will provide the company with 3.5 billion yuan of incremental revenue in 2022. The company signed another covid-19 order of RMB 3.54 billion. The contract supply cycle is 2022, and the cumulative contract amount accounts for about 77% of the company’s total revenue in 2021 (taking the median value of performance forecast). This large order will bring more than expected incremental revenue to the company in 2022. With the previous orders of nearly 5.8 billion yuan, three covid-19 large orders can bring a compound annual growth rate of 99% to the company’s total revenue from 2020 to 2022. The company signed orders with major pharmaceutical enterprises in the United States, indicating that the company’s continuous production technology and supply capacity have been internationally recognized.
Pfizer covid-19 oral drug sales may continue to exceed expectations. Among covid-19 small molecule drugs currently on the market in the world, Pfizer paxlovid leads with an effective rate of 89%. Pfizer said in its 2021 annual report forecast that it expects to produce 120 million paxlovid in 2022. In addition, with the approval of various countries for listing and external authorized production, the production demand of paxlovid is expected to continue to increase in the future. As one of the most important cdmo suppliers, the company is expected to continue to receive orders.
Capacity release accelerated, matching the rapid growth of orders. In the second half of 2021, the company will release 1390 cubic meters of production capacity in Tianjin, Dunhua and other areas. In 2022, the company will add 1500 cubic meters of production capacity in Dunhua, Zhenjiang and other places. At that time, the total production capacity of the company will reach nearly 6000 square meters. The production of new production capacity and the application of continuous reaction and other technologies help the company improve its delivery capacity and support the further release of future performance. The new orders signed by the company occupy some of the original production capacity, but considering the newly released production capacity and the allocation of the original production capacity, we expect the company to successfully deliver the orders and have a small impact on the original business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s newly signed orders have a great impact on the revenue in 2022. We raised the company’s profit forecast for 2022-2023. The forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company for 2021-2023 was adjusted to RMB 1.058/26.02/2.852 billion from RMB 1.117/17.81/2.024 billion. The current market value corresponds to 77 / 31 / 28 times of PE in 2021-2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: order delivery is not as expected, new business development is not as expected, exchange gain and loss risk, etc.
