since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to adjust, and the current repair window has arrived:
On the one hand, popular tracks such as the "new semi army" have been in the bottom area and gradually started to rebound. Since the beginning of the year, the growth track of high prosperity and hard technology has been greatly adjusted.
1) on the one hand, the Fed's concern about raising interest rates or even shrinking the table has increased, the interest rate of US bonds has risen sharply, and US stocks, especially technology stocks, have fallen sharply, which has continued to drag down China's risk appetite. at present, the market panic about the Fed's interest rate hike has eased. The expectation of 50bp interest rate hike in March has fallen sharply, and the US bond interest rate has risen and fallen, which will also weaken the impact on China.
2) on the other hand, the high congestion of Chinese institutions and the poor market microstructure also lead to the boom growth, especially the track adjustment. however, at present, the congestion of the "new half army" has dropped to a low level, and the valuation cost performance has also improved significantly. Among them, the leading stocks took the lead in stabilizing and recovering, which is the leading signal for the "new semi army" to return to rising. At present, the comparison trend between new energy and semiconductor leaders and non leaders has been in the recovery stage, and the characteristics of the bottom of the sector appear.
3) in addition, some investors are worried about the deterioration of the long-term prosperity of the "new half army", but at present whether it is new energy, semiconductor or military industry, its predicted net profit growth in 2022 is still more than 40%, and the high prosperity trend remains unchanged.
On the other hand, "steady growth" is not to the right, and "mini version 2014" will continue to perform. since the end of last year, we have put the "stable growth" sector in the first place, and the relative income has been significant so far. Recently, many investors are worried that "steady growth" has entered the right side, and the sector has also fluctuated. However, referring to the experience of the past five rounds of "steady growth", the market's expectation of policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from "expected warming" to "skepticism" and then to "final belief", from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Even in 2014, looking back, the signal and logic of policy relaxation were very clear, but the market still experienced such a long, slow reversal of expectations, from "not believing" to "believing". Finally, it deduces a structural market of undervalued repair. At present, the market is still "skeptical" about policy relaxation, and the expectation of "stable growth" has not been fully reflected in the position. In terms of rhythm, it is similar to that in July 2014 (the social finance data in June exceeded expectations). And with reference to history, before the downward pressure on house prices eased and the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities became positive month on month, banks, real estate, securities companies and other undervalued sectors could probably have excess returns and absolute returns.
structurally, "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, in the growth sector, the "small high tech" with bottom-up layout, deep excavation and adjustment, sufficient pressure release of congestion and still good prosperity. On the other hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is determined, and the "mini version 2014" is still on the way, focusing on the "big finance" benefiting from "stable growth" and "wide credit" at the margin.
1) " big finance ": we judge that there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to "mini version 2014" this year, including large financial sectors such as banks, real estate and securities companies, which have top-down logic support and are also "places with few people", and the repair of undervalued sectors will continue.
2) " small high tech ": after the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the current transaction congestion has dropped to a historically low level, and the pressure from position concentration and transaction congestion has been significantly released. On the premise of confirming the direction of prosperity, it is expected to rebound gradually in the follow-up.
Investment strategy: grasp the repair of undervalued financial and real estate, and bargain hunting layout of "small high-tech". For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy ( new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc. ), 2) new generation information and communication technology ( artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc. ), 3) high-end manufacturing ( intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc. ), 4) biomedicine ( innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc. ), 5) Military industry ( missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc. ).
Risk tip: focus on the return of global capital to the United States, and the game between China and the United States exceeds expectations.
