This week, A-Shares fluctuated upward. How will A-Shares perform next week?
Institutions are generally optimistic about a shares. CICC strategy believes that under the background of relatively low market and low expectation, the “steady growth” has made great efforts, and there has been more than expected credit and social finance increment, which has a positive impact on the market. Growth stocks may not have the time to intervene significantly, and the time point for the market to return to the growth style is preliminarily expected at the beginning of the second quarter.
Steady growth has become a high-frequency word for institutions. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the service industry rescue has supplemented the “short board”. The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market, and the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end. The “three bottoms” of the policy bottom, the market bottom and the emotional bottom have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the main line of the steady growth market.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that we still need to pay attention to external risks this week. We once again observed the introduction of “steady growth” policies.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) also believes that the market is in a weak repair state before the steady growth takes effect.
For future investment opportunities, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that, on the one hand, in the growth sector, there are stocks with bottom-up layout, deep excavation and adjustment, full release of congestion pressure and still good prosperity. On the other hand, focus on the “big finance” benefiting from “stable growth” and “wide credit” at the margin.
Weekend Financial Highlights
\u3000\u3000 1. Yi Gang: the people’s Bank of China will maintain a prudent monetary policy, be flexible and appropriately increase cross cycle regulation
On February 17-18, 2022, Indonesia, the chairman of the group of twenty (G20), presided over the first G20 finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting this year in Jakarta in the form of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) . Yi Gang, President of the people’s Bank of China, attended the meeting and delivered a speech by video connection, accompanied by Vice President Chen Yulu. Yi Gang introduced China’s economic and financial situation, saying that China’s total inflation is warm, monetary policy is flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, and the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy are continuously improved. The people’s Bank of China will maintain a stable monetary policy flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, and promote high-quality economic development.
\u3000\u3000 2. Foreign investment banks: the layout of A-Shares has not changed! The FTSE Russell index was adjusted to include 102 A shares
On February 18, Beijing time, FTSE Russell, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly review results of its flagship index in February 2022. The announcement shows that its flagship index, the FTSE global stock index series (hereinafter referred to as FTSE GEIs), includes 102 new Chinese A shares this time, including 26 large cap a shares, 4 medium cap A-Shares and 72 small cap a shares. In addition, some previously included A-share targets have been classified and adjusted due to changes in market value. The above changes will take effect after the closing on March 18 (before the opening on March 21).
\u3000\u3000 3. Demarcation of the boundary of the starting area at the eight hub nodes of “counting from the east to the west”
The reporter learned from the China Institute of information and communications that the four hub nodes in the west of “counting from the east to the west” delimit the boundaries of five starting areas, including Gui’an Electronic Information Industrial Park in Guizhou Gui’an new area, Inner Mongolia Helinger new area and Jining big data Industrial Park, Xifeng data information industry cluster in Qingyang, Gansu Province, and the Western cloud base of Ningxia Zhongwei Industrial Park. The boundaries of the starting areas of the four hub nodes in the East are located in Huailai County, Zhangbei County and Xuanhua District of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, Qingpu District of Shanghai, Wujiang District of Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, Jiashan County of Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province, Jiujiang District, gejiang district and Wuwei city of Wuhu City, Anhui Province, Shaoguan high tech Zone of Guangdong Province, Shuangliu District, Pidu district and Jianyang City of Chengdu City, Shuitu new town, Liangjiang New District, Chongqing, Bishan area of Western (Chongqing) Science City, Chongqing Economic and Technological Development Zone.
market review one week before the festival
\u3000\u3000 1. Stock market
A-share market:
This week (February 14-18, the same below) A-share shocks warmed up. The three major Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes collectively closed higher, with the Shanghai index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index rising 0.80%, 1.78% and 2.93% respectively.
Northbound funds showed a net outflow trend. Statistics show that the net outflow of northbound funds this week exceeded 2 billion yuan. Specifically, the data show that the cumulative net outflow of funds from the north this week was 2.399 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 3.15 billion yuan from the Shanghai Stock connect and a net outflow of 5.549 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect. This week, the number of shares held by northbound funds in 724 stocks increased and the positions of 900 stocks were reduced, of which the amount of position increase for Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and the amount of position reduction for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) were the largest.
In terms of industries, 20 of the 31 categories of Shenwan class industries rose this week, among which power equipment and non-ferrous metals led the weekly increase, both exceeding 5%, 11 categories fell, and non bank finance led the decline
prepared by: Zhao Ziqiang
In terms of lifting the ban, the data show that 46 shares will be lifted next week, with a total lifting market value of 79.044 billion yuan according to the latest closing price. There are three shares whose market value exceeds 10 billion, namely Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) . The largest one is Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) . 1.522 billion shares will be listed and circulated next week, mainly the placement of shares by private placement institutions. The market value of the lifting of the ban reaches 20.186 billion yuan. From the proportion of the number of shares lifted in the total share capital, the market value of three shares lifted exceeded 60%. The lifting proportion of Wpg (Shanghai) Smart Water Public Co.Ltd(603956) ranks first, reaching 79.37%, and the lifting proportion of Deyuan pharmaceutical and Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) exceeds 60%.
Hong Kong Stock Market:
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened 159.11 points lower on the 18th and fell further in the afternoon, reaching 24284.53 points, closing at 24327.71 points, down 465.06 points, or 1.88%, with a full day main board turnover of HK $126.218 billion. Summing up the whole week, the Hang Seng Index fell 578 points, or 2.32%.
overseas market:
This week, the three major stock indexes of US stocks fell one after another due to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the expectation of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Dow fell 1.9%, the S & P 500 fell 1.58%, the NASDAQ fell 1.76%, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down for the second consecutive week.
\u3000\u3000 2. Bond market
Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) : there has been little change in monetary policy recently. Although the continued excess of MLF has given the market some confidence, the significant rebound in China’s social finance and the pressure brought by the tightening of overseas monetary policy have led to a decline in the probability of further comprehensive easing in the short term. The role of structural tools was also emphasized again in the monetary policy report released last weekend, This may be the main means for some time to come.
\u3000\u3000 3. Foreign exchange
On February 18, the offshore RMB rose sharply against the US dollar, breaking the 6.3200 mark for a time, reaching a new high of 6.3144 in recent four years, the highest since May 2018.
Under the factors such as the contrary monetary policies of China and the United States, the trend of RMB has not weakened, but has become stronger and stronger. In addition to the large increase in the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales brought about by the growth of the surplus of trade in goods and direct investment since last year, it is also very important for RMB assets to attract foreign capital to continuously exceed market expectations.
In terms of market expectations, Chinese analysts have some doubts about whether the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates many times can be truly fulfilled. Superimposed on the differences between the fundamental cycles of China and the United States, the tightening of the United States is not “tight”, while China’s steady growth measures, LPR reduction and RMB appreciation.
\u3000\u3000 4. Commodities
April gold futures, the most actively traded gold futures market on the New York Mercantile Exchange, fell $2.2 to close at $1899.8 an ounce on the 18th, down 0.12%, and the price of gold still rose 3.1% this week. Inflation and geopolitical tensions are now the two main factors supporting the rise in gold prices. Market analysts believe that geopolitical tensions have a short impact on the gold market; The impact of inflation on the market is long-term. Technically, the gold market is still on the rise.
On February 18, Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed at US $93.54/barrel and US $91.07/barrel respectively. The dollar index closed near 96.1. Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that we expect the global crude oil supply and demand pattern to remain tight in 2022, so we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector
