The "two sessions" that has attracted much attention from the market is about to be held. Under the current market environment, has the decline of track stocks hit a golden pit since the beginning of the year? Or will undervalued stocks become the main investment line this year? What impact will the convening of the "two sessions" have on the economic situation and the stock market? What policy expectations deserve attention? How to view the overall economic development situation this year? What areas of investment opportunities deserve attention?
In response to the above problems, the fund invited six well-known private placement personages to interpret them, namely:
Cui Hongjian, general manager of Shi Feng assets and director of investment research
Gao Bin, chief economist of Kaifeng investment
Wu Junfeng, investment director of qinghequan capital
official Lei, chief research officer of Xingshi investment
Bao Jigang, chairman of Wukong investment
Zhu Liang, executive partner and investment director of Danyi investment
In view of the overall development of the economy this year, private placement believes that the focus of economic work lies in "stable growth", which is likely to maintain the trend of low before high. The economy is expected to reach the bottom in the second quarter and rise quarter by quarter in the second half of the year. As for this year's investment environment, private placement believes that it is more complex than in previous years. Specifically, in terms of investment, many pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by "stable growth", but the specific directions are different. Some express that they focus on undervalued value stocks, while others still see the boom track and focus on automobile intelligence.
Fund Jun sorted out their golden sentences as follows:
Cui Hongjian: the first quarterly report is the most important time point to test the growth of individual stocks. As long as the first quarterly report of individual stocks is excellent, individual stocks will reach a new high from May to June. Most of the major investment opportunities this year are bottom-up, and the biggest one is the investment opportunities brought by "steady growth".
Gao Bin: Generally speaking, since the beginning of last year, the good tracks considered by various markets have been adjusted in turn. In essence, it should be because the valuation is too high and far exceeds the growth in the future.
Wu Junfeng: after the two sessions, it is conducive to the accelerated implementation of policies, and the real economy is expected to usher in substantive repair and acceleration. This is positive for the stabilization and recovery of the economy in the middle of the year and the repair of the risk appetite of the stock market.
Fang Lei: under the "steady growth" policy, China's economy has improved, and it is expected that more industries will improve their prosperity. At the same time, the valuation of Chinese value stocks is not high, and there may be more structural opportunities within value stocks. However, this does not mean that the growth stocks are not good. After the adjustment since this year, the valuation of high-quality companies in some growth sectors also has a good cost performance after the decline.
Bao Jigang: it is expected that 2022 will be a great year of steady growth, and more steady growth policies will be released during the two sessions. Under the dual carbon goal, new energy infrastructure may become one of the main forces of steady growth, and the digital infrastructure brought by digital transformation will also bring investment opportunities.
Zhu Liang should increase the probability of recovery of the epidemic in the third year after the outbreak of the epidemic, and wait for more than 456} years. In addition, the long-term opportunities brought by automobile intelligence also deserve attention.
The full text is as follows:
Pay attention to steady growth, reduce taxes and fees and other policies
The stock market will give a positive response and risk appetite repair
China Fund News: the two sessions will be held on March 5. What policies are expected to pay attention to? In the current environment, what impact will the convening of the two sessions have on the economy or stock market?
Zhu Liang: the central economic conference last year pointed out that the policy direction in 2022 is to actively stabilize economic growth. The two sessions are estimated to be some specific policies, including infrastructure, consumption, etc. Because these expectations are basically before the two sessions, they will not have a direct impact unless more than expected policies are introduced.
Wu Junfeng: first, the economic growth target is expected to be about 5.5%, or more than 5%; Second, monetary policy. There is still room and window period for the subsequent reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, and the interest rate spread and exchange rate between China and the United States provide some support; Third, the fiscal deficit ratio is relatively stable, the scale of special bonds is expected to be flat month on month, and the fiscal expenditure and project reserves are expected to be ahead of schedule; Fourth, the real estate policy. The tone of not speculation in housing will not change, but the local demand side policy is expected to be relaxed one after another, paying attention to the regulation of second tier cities. In addition, the strength of housing protection needs to be continuously tracked, and the real estate tax should not be introduced during the two sessions; Fifth, in the field of consumption, the expectation of direct fiscal stimulus is relatively low, and the recovery depends on the industry itself and the transformation of epidemic prevention and control policies; Sixth, structural reform and antitrust policies, which have appeared at the bottom of the policy, but it is difficult to reverse expectations.
After the two sessions, it is conducive to the accelerated implementation of policies, and the real economy is expected to usher in substantive repair and acceleration. This is positive for the stabilization and recovery of the economy in the middle of the year and the repair of the risk appetite of the stock market.
Gao Bin: infrastructure promotion should be no accident. Consumption has been weak in the past two years. We expect to stimulate it through tax reduction and fee reduction. The central government has a lot of fiscal space. This year's deficit can be larger. With the money transferred from last year, capital is not a problem. If the positive policies can be implemented, we think the stock market will give a positive response.
Bao Jigang: we predict that 2022 will be a great year of steady growth, and more steady growth policies will be released during the two sessions. Under the dual carbon target, new energy infrastructure may become one of the main forces of steady growth. Digital infrastructure brought by digital transformation will also bring investment opportunities. The two sessions over the years have a certain setting significance for the economy of the whole year.
it is expected that the overall economy will be low in the front and high in the back this year
China Fund News: Based on the previous government economic report, what is your judgment on the overall development of the economy this year?
Wu Junfeng: according to the government work report, we should use the market-oriented mechanism to stimulate enterprise innovation. It can be seen that in 2021, relying on market players for independent innovation in science and technology is still the highlight of the future of the two sessions. At present, China is mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the global industrial chain and heavily depends on key technologies and parts. For this year, the development of science and technology and high-end manufacturing are still the main melody of the overall economic development.
Cui Hongjian: I think the downward pressure on economic growth is very great this year due to the epidemic, real estate and the monetary contraction policy of the United States. Therefore, the Chinese government will also adopt more active fiscal and monetary policies to hedge the downward pressure on the economy, but when can the economic growth stabilize, We also need to observe the effect of China's credit expansion.
According to historical experience, generally, the downward trend of economic growth will not be reversed until the social finance growth rate rises in the first and second quarters. According to the data, the social finance growth rate starts to rise in January 2022. Considering that the downward pressure on real estate in 2022 is greater than that in previous years, the time for China's overall macroeconomic stabilization is probably after the middle of 2022.
Gao Bin: GDP growth of 5.5% is the bottom line. Whether it can be achieved depends on the will and measures of the government. Unlike many analyses, our macro analysis framework tells us that China's currency and finance are absolute top students in major global economies. If top students do not get good results, they must not work hard, not be unable. It is true that some top students underestimate the difficulty of the exam, but sometimes we also worry that we will fail. The test now is to stabilize real estate: it is not how to stimulate upward on a large scale, but how to stabilize it.
Bao Jigang: we expect the economy as a whole to maintain the trend of low before and high after this year. The gradual force of the steady growth policy will hedge the downward pressure on real estate. There is an inflection point in the new social finance data in January. Historically, the bottom of the economy will lag behind the social finance inflection point for a few months.
Zhu Liang: the probability is low before and high after. Under the loose monetary policy and active fiscal stimulus, the economy is expected to reach the bottom in the second quarter and rise quarter by quarter in the second half of the year, but the recovery slope needs to be observed.
Fang Lei: the focus of economic work this year is "steady growth". Although the market still has doubts about the recovery of demand, we believe that the actual effect of the "steady growth" policy should not be ignored. In December 2021, the central economic conference set the tone of "steady growth" and entered the front stage of fiscal policy in 2022. The central bank released warmth for many times, and the credit data improved more than expected, indicating that the policy effect is showing. We are optimistic about the economic growth rate, which may be above 5.5% this year.
expanding domestic demand and industrial upgrading bring investment opportunities
optimistic about new energy infrastructure as one of the main forces of steady growth
China Fund News: previously, the local two sessions have been closed one after another. What investment opportunities do you expect the two sessions to bring? Which do you prefer?
Zhu Liang: most of the policies of the local two sessions are fiscal stimulus policies such as new and old infrastructure, so infrastructure has performed well since the beginning of this year. However, the old infrastructure is difficult to last for a long time, so we are more optimistic about some medium and long-term directions, such as offline consumption in the post epidemic era, automotive intelligence, software SaaS, etc.
Fang Lei: it is expected that more detailed policies will be issued during the two sessions, which may be divided into three aspects:
First, relevant policies to expand domestic demand. Domestic demand is mainly divided into two parts, investment and consumption, both of which have policies to pay attention to. In terms of investment, the government's willingness to "stabilize growth" is very strong, and policies related to infrastructure investment may be further strengthened; In real estate investment, there may be clearer policies for the construction of indemnificatory housing and public rental housing; Manufacturing investment may be encouraged by equipment upgrading policies such as energy conservation and emission reduction. In terms of consumption, both commodity consumption and service consumption may be stimulated by policies. On the one hand, policies may help the development of new consumption scenes and new business forms; On the other hand, policies may stimulate residents' consumption demand, such as issuing some consumption vouchers and carrying out some consumer goods to the countryside.
Second, the policy of industrial upgrading. Industrial upgrading is a medium and long-term task. The specific directions may include promoting the development of emerging industrial chain clusters, accelerating the digital, intelligent and high-end development of traditional industries, and prospectively arranging future industries.
Third, support policies for industries with difficulties in production and operation, such as further tax reduction and fee reduction, reducing financing costs, etc.
The convening of the two sessions and the introduction of more policy rules will help stabilize the risk appetite of the stock market. The market is expected to stabilize under the background of the gradual implementation of policies, and the sectors stimulated by policies may have better opportunities.
Gao Bin: buy the cheapest stocks. At the same time, find the subject matter with proper adjustment and reasonable valuation in the growth track. There are many such Hong Kong stocks.
Bao Jigang: we believe that under the dual carbon goal, new energy infrastructure may become one of the main forces of steady growth. Digital infrastructure brought by digital transformation will also bring investment opportunities.
the investment environment is more complex and growth stocks are more difficult
private placement directions are different
China Fund News: how do you view this year's investment environment and how is it different from the past? What risks or opportunities do you think are worth paying attention to in the market? Which segments of investment opportunities are more promising?
Wu Junfeng: this year's investment environment is the same as our annual strategy. There are three different restrictive environments. The first environment is the macro differentiation of monetary policies between China and the United States. The second environment is the correction of economic policies and the rebalancing of steady growth and structural adjustment. The third environment is the difficulty of micro stock selection. Stocks with future are more expensive, and cheap stocks have no future.
We believe that the main market opportunities come from the differences in the steady growth policy and the expectations of the Federal Reserve. 1) Credit data force. The market lacks confidence in the steady growth policy. However, with the higher than expected credit data in January, the pattern of wide credit and wide currency may be formed. In the historical resumption, the market is usually not too bad, mainly because the wide credit has stabilized the profit expectation and improved the risk appetite. 2) The Fed is expected to weaken. Although the Fed's expectation is facing continuous upward adjustment, it has been extreme from the stage when various US assets include the expectation of raising interest rates. Historically, asset prices fluctuated greatly during the revision stage of the Fed's tightening expectations. However, in the landing stage, the pressure on asset valuation has eased.
We are concerned about the subdivision of the field, mainly the intelligent secondary products, and the secondary Baijiu liquor of the consumer service sector. We believe that 1) the development space of the industry is huge. With the increasing penetration of electric vehicles and the development of electric vehicles to a certain extent, the trend of intelligence will be more obvious. The space of electric vehicles is huge, and the intelligent space is also expanding. 2) The industry has crossed the R & D period. L2 level has entered the popularization stage, and L3 level and above are still in the early stage of penetration. The penetration rate of L2 industry is about 22%, which is close to the inflection point. L3 also benefits from the hardware embedding of the main engine factory, and has begun to increase gradually. The logic of sub Baijiu (liquor) is that 1) the epidemic will impact short-term demand, but will eventually be compensated. The epidemic has affected the confirmation of performance, but due to the relatively rigid demand for social consumption, it does not affect the consumption scene, and will make up for the performance in the end. 2) The policy has been continuously overweight, and the macro data has gradually stabilized. With the higher than expected credit data in January, the trend of wide credit and wide currency has been strengthened, and the overall probability of demand has warmed up.
Gao Bin: the investment environment this year seems complex, but it may be very simple to look back at the end of the year, that is, "buy the cheapest stocks".
We are relatively optimistic about China's infrastructure related sectors listed in Hong Kong stocks. The valuations of these stocks are extremely low and not sexy, but many subject valuations with returns of more than 20% last year are still extremely cheap. Since the beginning of this year, they have been more than 10% and are still cheap. Using only a cheap index to measure, the red interest rate of these global construction leading enterprises can be about 5%, the P / E ratio is only 3, the high is generally 5, the P / B ratio is basically less than 1, and the lowest is only a little more than 0.2.
These enterprises also have profit growth of about 10% and roe of about 10%.
Of course, low value may also be a value trap, such as Chinese dollar bonds in real estate in the past few years. Think about where there is more money now, that is the interest rate bond and high-grade credit bond market. In contrast, the red interest rate of these stocks with great upside potential is several points higher.
This year, the government is sure to support the economy, and the best means is infrastructure. One belt, one road to the daughter of a humble family, will be the great lady of all walks of life. Once the infrastructure is built, the growth rate of these stocks will be recognized. The reform of state-owned enterprises, the RCEP, the belt and even the B3W that the United States will praise will become the theme of such stocks. In fact, these are ladies of the family, but the market has preferred online popularity in the past few years. Many netizens are naturally beautiful, and many have cosmetic surgery after tomorrow. Recently, there are big questions. If you can't tell them clearly, they will fall into the mud and sand, while the genes of ladies are very easy to judge.
Bao Jigang: at the micro level, because the profit-making effect decreases, the speed of capital inflow into the market will slow down. At the macro level, China's foreign monetary policy is split. China as a whole maintains a wide range of currency and credit. The overall judgment of the market has a bottom. We need to look for structural opportunities. At present, we are still optimistic about investment opportunities in new energy, military industry and consumption under steady growth.
Zhu Liang: there are two special places this year: (1) the monetary policies of China and the United States are just the opposite. The United States is tightening its currency because its economy is in an upward period and serious inflation. On the contrary, China needs to loosen its currency because of its economic downturn and slight inflation. Two opposite policies will increase the difficulty of investment.
(2) major sectors have risen once since 19 years. The consumer stocks represented by Mao index have been adjusted for one year, but the recovery is slow due to the impact of the epidemic; The new semi army and other track stocks have not fallen for a complete adjustment (about a year), and there are also negative concerns in the industry. Therefore, for growth stock players, this year's investment may be more difficult than in the past three years.
As for this year's opportunities, we believe that on the whole, this year is the third year of the outbreak, and the probability of the elimination of the epidemic will be increased. In the future, there should be more opportunities for offline services and consumption for the recovery of the epidemic. In addition, the long-term opportunities brought by automobile intelligence also deserve attention.
Cui Hongjian: the investment environment this year will be more complex than in previous years: first, the epidemic situation in China is always repeated. After all, China still adopts a dynamic zero policy. When an epidemic occurs, it will worsen China's weak macro-economy; Second, the downward pressure on real estate is increasing, and real estate companies will continue to explode because they are difficult to support capital pressure; Third, the United States is in the cycle of raising interest rates in 2022, which will put great pressure on the global interest rate level; Fourth, after 2021, China's quantitative trading has made great progress, and the underlying logic of quantitative trading will still increase the volatility of the market; Fifth, the conflict between China and the United States will continue to increase this year, the risk of military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also increasing, and the international situation is deteriorating. These are the risk points we need to face this year.
This year, I think most of the main investment opportunities are bottom-up, and the biggest investment opportunity is the investment opportunity brought by "stable growth", because the core contradiction of the whole macro-economy this year comes from "whether China's macro policies can stabilize the economy whose growth rate continues to decline". The capital market is bound to respond to this contradiction, resulting in a lot of investment opportunities.
Fang Lei: overall, the market this year is more complex than ever. The main risks are as follows:
Overseas, the risk of tightening liquidity in developed economies. At present, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates may have reached the top. The market began trading and raised interest rates seven times in the year. We think it is necessary to draw a question mark whether the actual interest rate increase can reach seven times. Although the continued high inflation in the first half of the year will force tightening, inflation may fall in the second half of the year, and the necessity of tightening may be weakened. Although the tightening of overseas liquidity may have an impact on the global market, the external risk impact may no longer be the core affecting the Chinese market. On the contrary, it has been basically determined that the overseas liquidity impact will be absorbed through the exchange rate. At present, the RMB is about 6.4 against the US dollar, which is still a certain space from the exchange rate sensitive range.
In China, there is a risk that the epidemic will worsen beyond expectations. Although we believe that the epidemic situation and epidemic prevention and control will eventually evolve in the direction of having the least impact on people's lives, the change direction of the virus is uncontrollable and there is still the possibility of strong strains. Current experience shows that physical prevention and control measures such as wearing masks are still effective in the face of new strains. Therefore, even if there are new strong strains, the negative impact on China's economy may not be greater.
The biggest opportunity this year may come from grasping the credit relief brought by the "steady growth" policy and the gradual improvement of the economy. At present, wide credit is gradually expanding. The credit data in January exceeded market expectations, and the credit structure began to improve marginally. Historically, the performance of the stock market in the period of broad credit is not poor, and the structure may be more favorable for the pro cyclical sector, such as after the stock disaster in 2009, 2012, 2015 and the epidemic in 2020. With the credit expansion, China's demand will maintain stable growth, and the economic growth is expected to improve, which will support the fundamentals of the stock market.
track stocks callback continuously
The main crux of is the high valuation
China Fund News: new energy, semiconductor, military industry, CXO and other track stocks have been callback continuously in the beginning of the year. What do you think? What are the main reasons for callback? Is the adjustment over? What are the changes in investment operation?
Fang Lei: the main crux of the continuous correction of track stocks lies in the high valuation. At present, inflation in the United States is higher than expected, the job market has recovered relatively well, and the expectation of interest rate hike in the United States has intensified, which has suppressed the high valuation sector. From the perspective of fundamentals, the medium and long-term fundamentals of track stocks have not changed greatly. The medium and long-term prosperity is high, there is still good investment value, and it has a stable foundation. We should keep a long-term focus on growth stocks, but in the current investment, we need to consider whether the valuation is within a reasonable range while paying attention to the long-term growth space.
Bao Jigang: from a fundamental point of view, the prosperity of sub industries such as new energy, military industry, CXO and some semiconductors is still in line with our previous expectations, but the market correction is more due to transaction level factors, driven by structural mapping caused by the rise of overseas interest rates, insufficient new capital in China and other reasons, The crowded Baotuan in the early stage faced a rapid decline in the beginning of the year, which further strengthened the stampede in turn. At present, we believe that the degree of congestion has decreased significantly and entered a bottoming stage in the short term. We believe that economic growth is the source of long-term profits of a shares, and the adjustment of the market at the beginning of the year also brings us the opportunity to increase investment in the real growth sector.
Zhu Liang: after rising in the past two years, track stocks such as new energy, semiconductor, military industry and CXO have increased greatly, and there have been some noise in their fundamentals in the past period of time. For example, after the national subsidy retreat at the beginning of this year, the collective price of electric vehicles, the price of photovoltaic silicon / silicon wafer began to rise again, and Yaoming biology was added to uvlist in the United States. Whether these will affect the prosperity of the industry needs time to verify. Various uncertainties make incremental funds unwilling to significantly increase positions in such assets, resulting in fatigue in such sectors.
At present, from the perspective of valuation, these stocks are in the central position of a reasonable range, but they are not undervalued.
If there is no problem with the future prosperity, you can make money for performance growth in the three-year dimension. After the sharp decline, we slightly increased our positions in some stocks that have been optimistic for a long time, but we think it will take time to observe the prosperity of the industry to determine the follow-up operation.
Wu Junfeng: the market generally expects stable or slightly positive earnings in 2022, and is generally optimistic about the market in the first half of the year, especially in the first quarter, under China's loose expectations. However, at the beginning of this year, the market has undergone great changes, and the decline has far exceeded our expectations. Two of them are unexpected. One is that the US tightening expectation is much higher than expected; Second, China lacks confidence in steady growth. Although the keynote at the end of 2021 has been established to focus on economic construction, the real economy and investors lack confidence in the market.
Looking forward to the future, we believe that the downward space is limited and the future repair is resilient. 1) China's credit began to work. In January, the financial data exceeded market expectations, and the pattern of widening currency and credit gradually took shape. With the continuous repair of credit, the market is generally well realized and has structural opportunities in the corresponding historical period, mainly because wide credit is conducive to stabilizing profit expectations and repairing risk appetite. 2) Overseas expectations also began to slow down. Since the beginning of the year, the market has continuously raised the expectation of tightening by the Federal Reserve. Judging from the expectation of interest rate increase implied in the current asset price, it has been more extreme; On the other hand, in history, the pressure on asset prices was the greatest in the expected revision stage of interest rate increase, while in the expected landing stage, the valuation pressure decreased. Therefore, with the mitigation of these two core factors, we are cautiously optimistic about the market repair.
Gao Bin: whether we use the "theme (T)" in Kaifeng macro framework trace or the "good track" in the five good stock selection framework to analyze, the long-term attraction of the above fields should be calculated in years and are the areas we focus on. However, we should also pay attention to whether the overvalued risk (R) and corresponding funds (c) support the continuous rise. In the "five good", we also pay attention to the "good price" to analyze whether the price is appropriate. On the whole, since the beginning of last year, the good tracks considered by various markets have been adjusted in turn. In essence, it should be because the valuation is too high and far exceeds the growth in the future. Whether this round of adjustment is over or not still needs to be observed. There are great differences between different tracks and different targets. On the whole, the valuation of these tracks is still not attractive at the absolute level. But at the same time, because these tracks have high growth, high elasticity and low valuation compared with the previous period, the market is still very concerned. If more steady growth measures are implemented and the monetary policy is loose enough, we can also expect a decent rebound. The core is to keep up with the capital.
Cui Hongjian: the continuous correction of the market at the beginning of the year exceeded everyone's expectations. After thinking, we think it is mainly affected by the following three factors:
First, there is great downward pressure on the economy. Although the total amount of social finance data in January greatly exceeded expectations, it showed that the effect of credit easing was very poor, and the endogenous power of the economy was very weak, making the market more pessimistic about the economy.
Second, the upward pressure on US bond interest rates is huge. After the US inflation data in January came out, it significantly exceeded the market expectations. The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has increased interest rates 3-5 times before the end of 2022, and has mentioned 5-7 times before the end of 2022. As a result, the interest rate of 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States has risen rapidly, rapidly exceeding 2, which has brought great pressure to the global capital market.
Third, absolute return funds continue to reduce positions in a circular manner. With the development of the capital market, the scale of China's quantitative funds, private equity and bank financial sub funds has expanded rapidly. These funds have strong absolute return requirements and can't stand too large rate of return retreat. Once there is too large retreat, such funds need to continuously reduce or even clear their positions to keep the bottom line of net worth. The increase in the proportion of absolute return funds has increased the fluctuation proportion of the market during withdrawal.
To sum up, I think the temporary market correction is not so terrible. The key is that the first quarterly report of individual stocks is more important. The growth investment method ultimately depends on the growth of individual stocks, and the first quarterly report is the most important time point to test the growth of individual stocks. As long as the first quarterly report of individual stocks is excellent, individual stocks will reach a new high from May to June.
the main line of this year is not clear
there are structural opportunities within value stocks
China Fund News: what do you think will be the main line of the market this year? Some people thought that value stocks had more opportunities this year. What do you think?
Gao Bin: since last year, the main line of the market is not clear, and the rotation is very fast. We really agree with the opportunity of value stocks. In this year's outlook, we also put forward the view of "buying the cheapest Stocks - Hong Kong stocks and selling the most expensive bonds - German bonds". The theme of value stocks was first mentioned the year before last. From the end of 2020 to the middle of 2021, Russell's value once outperformed Russell by 18%, but then fell again until the end of 2021. Since then, the value has outperformed by 15% again. We think the duration may be longer, because a natural contrast is the collapse of the US tech stock bubble in 2000. The value / growth ratio has risen from 0.6 of 2000's low point to 1.5. in 2006. This adjustment is mainly driven by the decline of technology stocks from 2000 to 2002, but it is completely driven by the rise of value from the end of 2002 to 2006. We think this cycle is similar to that one.
Zhu Liang: at present, the main line of this year is not clear. At the beginning of the year, the market chose "counter cycle" (Infrastructure / real estate industry chain) and "Shun Technology" (computer and media), but these two clues lack long logic - the former is considered as a sunset industry and the latter is considered as a speculation concept, so this market has no sustainability. The so-called value stocks are more undervalued stocks and more short-term risk aversion of funds after the lack of opportunities in consumption, growth and other sectors. In the second quarter, after we have a clearer view of China's macroeconomic recovery, the US interest rate hike and the prosperity of the new semi army, the main line should come out this year.
Fang Lei: under the "steady growth" policy, China's economy has improved, and it is expected that more industries will improve their prosperity. At the same time, the valuation of Chinese value stocks is not high, and there may be more structural opportunities within value stocks. However, this does not mean that the growth stocks are not good. After the adjustment since this year, the valuation of high-quality companies in some growth sectors also has a good cost performance after the decline.
Bao Jigang: the core is the comparison of prosperity, whether it is steady growth or the original track stocks. The seesaw performance at the beginning of the year makes the traditional stable growth sector and the early Baotuan track sector enter a balance. Next, there are sectors with relative growth advantages and can not be overvalued.
Wu Junfeng: from a medium-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the growth sector. 1) The valuation has been greatly digested. Over the past 16 years, the relative valuation relative to the steady growth sector has begun to dominate, and the absolute valuation has returned to the center as a whole, and the subdivision has been cheap. 2) Performance is dominant. Although this year is a year of steady growth, it is difficult to significantly improve the performance advantages of traditional industries. Although the performance growth rate of the growth sector has moved down, the prosperity is still high, especially in the manufacturing field in the middle and lower reaches. 3) Once there is a catalyst, growth stocks will also oversold and rebound. With the continuous fermentation of China's steady growth policy, the pattern of wide currency and wide credit is constantly taking shape. Historically, the market will have structural opportunities, and growth stocks may perform better.
