The current global economic and political landscape is complex, first is the trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine . The best result is that if Russia and the EU can respond correctly, they can finally reach some form of peace agreement and smash the conspiracy of the United States. The failure of the US provocation in Russia and Ukraine, the previous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the failure to please trade frictions with China will become a footnote to the gradual loss of the US hegemony in the world. The global peace situation will continue, and the position of the euro in the global settlement system will be further improved. Then this will be a win-win situation for China, Russia and Europe. if so, in the long run, the status of the payment and settlement currency of the US dollar index will decline significantly. In the long run, the US dollar index may fall sharply, the RMB may appreciate significantly, global capital will flow into China, Europe and Russia, and A-share European stocks will usher in a more powerful situation. Of course, under the continuous provocation and instigation of the United States, it does not rule out that the further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine creates new risk points for the world. In terms of global commodities, global capital expenditure may still be in an upward cycle in 2022. At the same time, 2022 is a great year of steady growth in China, and the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment will be marginal upward. The global demand for commodities will remain low in the past 22 years and will be affected by the global supply of commodities in the next 22 years, which will be mainly caused by the global supply of commodities in the past 22 years, The supply of global commodities is relatively tight, therefore, driven by demand, it is not ruled out that the price of commodities may rise to a higher level this year. Global pricing commodities, such as oil and gas industry, metals, energy metals and other investment opportunities deserve special attention.
[resumption of trading · internal view] this week, the growth sector of the A-share market rebounded in turn and most of the overall rise was mainly due to 1) the previously released China’s credit data exceeded expectations, the expectation of steady economic growth and the expectation of loose liquidity were strengthened; 2) The growth sector has fallen sharply this year. Some high boom growth sectors are falling rapidly. The valuation has become attractive and has the power to stabilize and rebound in the short term. 3) This week, some commodities such as crude oil and aluminum began to fall after rising continuously, and investors’ concerns about inflation fell marginally.
[meso · boom] in December, the year-on-year growth of global semiconductor sales expanded, and the year-on-year growth of sales in the Americas, Europe, China and Asia Pacific expanded. Recently, Taiwan stock Electronics announced the revenue in January. The revenue of IC design, IC manufacturing, memory, silicon wafer, PCB, led and other manufacturers continued to rise year-on-year, some of the growth narrowed, and the revenue of panel and some lens manufacturers decreased year-on-year. In January, the year-on-year decline in excavator sales of major enterprises narrowed, and the year-on-year decline in loader sales of 3 tons and above narrowed. In January, heavy truck sales fell 57% year-on-year, the lowest level in January of nearly six years. This week, the prices of billet, rebar and iron ore fell, the prices of coke and coking coal rose, and the futures price of power coal fell.
[funds · numerous and few] the funds going north flowed out slightly, and the fund issuance continued to fall. the net outflow of funds going north this week was 2.4 billion yuan; The total net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 5.7 billion yuan; 1.14 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, down 3.56 billion from the previous period; ETF net redemption, corresponding to a net outflow of 10.61 billion yuan. In terms of industry preference, the higher net purchase scale of northbound capital is electrical equipment, transportation, banking, etc; Net purchase of non-ferrous metals, chemicals, banks, etc. with financing funds; Securities companies have more ETF subscription and more pharmaceutical ETF redemption. The scale of net reduction of important shareholders has expanded; The scale of planned reduction decreased.
[theme · wind direction] this week’s industrial observation – counting from the east to the West was fully launched, focusing on the investment opportunities of the three industrial chains. the East digital West computing project is expected to drive the annual investment scale of hundreds of billions in the future, and pay attention to the data center industrial chain, including IT equipment such as optical modules, switches and servers, non it equipment such as power supply and distribution, temperature control, and IDC construction and operation. Xinchuang industrial chain, including domestic chips, servers and operating systems, as well as energy storage.
[data · valuation] the valuation level of all A-Shares this week rose compared with last week, PE (TTM) rose 0.2x to 15.8x, which is in the quantile of 47.7% of the historical valuation level. The valuation of the sector rose and fell. Among them, the valuation of the power equipment sector rose more, and the computer sector fell significantly.
[risk tip] the strength of the policy was less than expected, and the US dollar appreciated sharply.
