Key points of the report:
Reiterate the style judgment: the balance is inclined to growth. It is suggested to pay attention to the rebound opportunities of digital economy, new energy, medicine and military industry. This week, we will answer the four key liquidity problems in the near future with data. ① How is the expectation of overseas tightening transmitted to the decline of a shares? A: the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve is more emotional transmission to a shares, and the pressure on previous overvalued sectors is greater. In this round, we have not seen the impact of exchange rate and foreign capital outflow path. ② Whether the absolute return funds have been reduced and redeemed, and how long can the negative feedback last? A: before the current round of decline, high positions and low net worth did show signs of reducing positions. The decline of absolute return heavy positions was deeper than that of their respective industry hubs. In history, negative feedback lasted for up to one quarter, such as 16q4 / 20q1 / 21q1. Loose policy or economic stabilization is a signal of stabilization. ③ Does killing more during the growth rebound limit the rebound space? A: "kill more" is the normal trading situation caused by the unwinding of high bullish funds in the middle and early stage of the rebound. The flat weighted average trading point in the market decline and the rebound stage is one of the signals of the limited rebound chips. Therefore, it is estimated that there is about 20% room for the limited rebound chips on the gem in this round. ④ What is the proportion of institutional investors participating in steady growth? A: since the beginning of the year, foreign capital has increased financial and business cycle, and reduced medicine, computer and new energy; The public offering cycle before the Spring Festival is partial, and the consumption after the Spring Festival is partial.
Text summary
How can overseas tightening expectations be transmitted to the decline of a shares? After all, China is still in a easing cycle? ① The RMB exchange rate has also maintained a strong range of 6.3 recently, and the net inflow of funds from the stock market to the North has been 25.1 billion yuan since the beginning of the year. The main weight of NASDAQ is concentrated in the Internet, chips and medicine. Internet giants such as faang have a great impact on the index; Gem refers to that the weight is concentrated in the new power and pharmaceutical sectors, and there are few stocks that can directly conduct international benchmarking with NASDAQ. Most of the time is the overseas factor, which explains the A shares' appeasing condolence agents. We attributed the decline of Baijiu in the beginning of 2021 to the upward trend of the US debt. The decline in the new energy in early 2022 was also attributed to the rise of the US debt, and more to the valuation: the tightening of overseas expectations is the emotional transmission of A shares, and the pressure of the high valuation sector is even greater.
Whether the absolute return fund has the problem of position reduction and redemption, and how long can the negative feedback last? ① There are signs of reducing positions in fixed income + and new capital. Since the beginning of the year, the decline of absolute income has occurred under the background of high positions and low net worth. There are indeed signs of reducing positions in the process of net worth decline. ② Negative feedback lasts for up to one quarter, and it is difficult for positions to continue to decline. In the past decade, the position reduction of fixed income + funds for more than two consecutive quarters only occurred in the two rounds of bear markets in 2015 and 2018. Except between bear cities, most of the positions reduction of absolute income funds remained for one quarter. ③ At present, we believe that macro positive factors are emerging, and the pessimistic expectations of the market for the economy will be gradually repaired.
How serious is the problem of killing more in the process of growth rebound? Does it limit the rebound space? ① In the middle and early stage of the rebound, high bullish funds were released to form a "kill more", resulting in limited rebound space. ② Whether the weighted average price in the rebound stage is close to that in the early decline stage can be regarded as a reference index for the limited rebound. During this round of decline, the gem refers to the weighted average cost of 3227 points, and 2826 points during the rebound since 2 / 15. Assuming that the rebound lasts for 1, 2 and 3 months, the required average transaction prices are 3301, 3260 and 3250 points respectively. Corresponding to the gem, there is still 20% space for the rebound chips.
What is the proportion of institutional investors participating in steady growth in the past two months? 1. Foreign capital keeps a net inflow trend, and its value is obviously biased. Since the new year's day, foreign capital mainly buys undervalued varieties such as banks, cycles, real estate, and so on, and has reduced more holdings to medicine, TMT, Baijiu and other sectors. After the Spring Festival, the new energy sector also turned into a selling trend. ② The public offering style is biased towards value, the cycle before the Spring Festival is biased towards consumption after the Spring Festival. Since new year's day, the public offering style has continued to favor the market value represented by SSE 50 and CSI 300, while the deviation from growth styles such as gem index and power equipment has gradually increased.
Note: This article refers to 2022 this year and 2021 last year.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
