1.1 exploring real growth materials in steady growth
When the cold is over, welcome the new year: at the beginning of the new year, with the opening and confirmation of a new round of "easing cycle", the expectation of steady growth is gradually heating up, the market style is rapidly changing, and the phased value stocks are dominant. Under the background, growth stocks are suppressed to varying degrees, superimposed with the negative factors such as the accelerated withdrawal of monetary easing by the overseas Federal Reserve, Growth style stocks have fallen by more than 10% since the beginning of 2022. Under the background that the cloud of the epidemic has not dissipated, the downward pressure on the macro economy represented by real estate has not decreased. The central economic work conference proposed that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. At this stage, under the word "stability", the "toothpaste squeezing" release of short-term macro policies is difficult to effectively alleviate market concerns, observe the strength of policies and wait for the effectiveness of policies, which has become a potential consensus. Therefore, in the same period, value stocks such as finance and cycle are more defensive than offensive. As the follow-up macro policy "further" can be expected, after the logic of steady growth is confirmed, we believe that the real growth track is expected to bloom again after the baptism of market style.
The era of new material investment under the definition of application scenario is coming: for a long time, the development of high-end new materials in China lags behind and the innovation ability is weak, resulting in the lack of sufficient independent guarantee of domestic materials in the downstream high-end application field for a long time. In recent years, under the background of emphasizing the internal circular economy as the main body at the national level, it is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process of key new materials that are more dependent on imports. Although similar products still lag far behind overseas developed countries in terms of quality, technology, stability and yield, benefiting from the inclination of the policy environment and the continuous rise of the prosperity of downstream industries such as military industry, advanced manufacturing and new energy, it will contribute to the technological development and business expansion of relevant new material enterprises in China, and the positive cycle has been opened. Considering that a certain type of material corresponds to different downstream needs and the current investment style of track type industrial chain, redefining new materials under application scenarios will have more investment and research value;
Explore real growth: after experiencing the interference of the top-down policy environment in 2021, the market is increasingly inclined to lay out sectors with strong certainty of long-term performance growth and less risk of future policy direction. This year, under the background of the lack of the main line of large growth strategy (the "double carbon" throughout 2021 has brought strong performance of the new energy industry chain), we believe that the differentiation between sectors The differentiation of individual stocks in the sector may become the main style of the market this year, so it is particularly important to select real growth tracks and excellent enterprises. Looking forward to 2022, the following investment directions deserve attention:
① new aviation materials: with the top-level support of national strategic security, military civilian integrated companies will maximize benefits in the rise of China's aviation industry in the future. In this process, the traditional single attribute of military industry will be weakened and the long-term strategic allocation value of aviation industry chain will be strengthened;
② new energy materials: under the background of energy structure upgrading and transformation, we should optimize the subdivided fields with poor industrial policies and fundamentals, such as rare earth and high-performance rare earth magnetic materials, new hydrogen energy materials, etc. the independent and controllable industrial system is expected to bring value revaluation;
③ lightweight materials: there is a significant gap in the lightweight process of Chinese automobile and other scenes compared with developed countries. In the future, the consumption growth in automobile, aerospace and other fields will effectively stimulate the demand for magnesium alloy and other materials.
