\u3000\u3000 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345)
Look at history: why can Yasui succeed? Over the past 20 years, the company has a history of continuous expansion and forge ahead. During the period of 2005-17, the market was opened through high-quality, medium and high price products and efficient channels, and gradually grew into a national leader in hot pot ingredients. Over the past 18 years, we have continued to broaden the capacity circle and began to cut into new channels (C-end) and new categories (prefabricated dishes); Capacity construction has also been increased again. The fixed increase plan of the company for 21 years has been approved, and the proposed fund-raising fund is no more than 5.74 billion yuan. 74% of the funds are used to expand capacity. It is expected to add 762500 tons of new capacity, including 105000 tons of prefabricated dishes. In 11-20 years, the CAGR of revenue / net profit attributable to parent company reached 21.3% / 26.9%, the net interest rate increased from 6.3% in 11 years to 7.1% in 19 years, and the operation index was stable. We conclude that the success of the company is the successful integration of strategy, tactics, execution and team culture. Strategically, it is forward-looking and enterprising. The most direct embodiment is the speed of capacity expansion (CAGR in 13-20 years is 26%); Tactically, he is good at finding a breakthrough in differentiation. For example, quick-frozen hot pot ingredients seize the share in the strong market of competitive products through cost-effective advantages; Strong focus on implementation and implementation in place; Management ability and team atmosphere are important foundation and guarantee.
Look to the future: short-term price increases release flexibility, and there is still enough space in the medium and long term. 1) Short term: 21 years is a profit margin depression, which is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as the change of product structure, the double reduction of energy consumption, the increase of Q2 promotion, the repeated epidemic situation and the rise of raw material prices. Looking forward to the future, the change of product structure may make it difficult for the profit margin to return to the 20-year level. However, with the fading of the impact of energy consumption restriction policy and the pressure of price increase to cover costs, it is expected that the 22-year net interest rate will be significantly improved. 2) Medium and long term: there is still room for expansion in the hot pot market, and the market share of the company is only 15%. With reference to Haitian's market share in the field of soy sauce reaching 34%, we believe that the market share of the company can reach at least 25%. In addition, the company actively promotes the prefabricated vegetable blue ocean track. At present, the scale of the prefabricated vegetable market is 200-300 billion yuan. If the penetration rate of end B is increased to 25% and the proportion of end C is increased to 20%, it is expected to reach 680 billion yuan in 25 years. At present, the pattern of prefabricated dishes is uncertain. The advantage of the company in making prefabricated dishes lies in the high synergy of channels, which is highly valued by the management, and the successful experience is expected to be copied.
Investment advice and valuation
In the third quarter of 21, XINHONGYE consolidated its statement. XINHONGYE promised to realize a net profit of no less than 73 / 80 / 90 million yuan in 21-23 years. It is estimated that the company's 21-23 EPS is 2.96/3.91/5.22 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 44 / 33 / 25 times. The company's small b-end business has a solid foundation, and prefabricated dishes are expected to become the second growth curve. Therefore, it is given a valuation of 45 times in 22 years, a target price of 175.95 yuan and a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The volume of prefabricated vegetables is lower than expected / the recovery of catering demand is slow / the industry competition intensifies / food safety / goodwill impairment
