Bad news always comes by surprise. On February 18, affected by the news from the national development and Reform Commission, the share price of meituan Hong Kong stock plunged in the afternoon. 90 minutes before the closing, the market value evaporated HK $219 billion and traded HK $16.09 billion throughout the day.
Meituan’s face today was breathtaking and fierce. At 2:30 p.m., meituan fell as rapidly as the ski jumping platform, the most thrilling project, with an intraday decline of more than 17% and a closing decline of 14.86% to HK $188 / share, with a market value of 1.15 trillion. So far, in one year, meituan’s share price has fallen by 60% from its highest point, and more than trillion market value has disappeared.
Due to the large face value and light weight of Hong Kong dollars, meituan lost 523 tons of “big Taurus” with a face value of HK $1000 in one and a half hours, based on a piece of HK $1000 weighing about 1.5g.
According to the data, the overall net sales of southbound funds today were HK $3.148 billion, of which Tencent holdings and meituan were net sold by HK $1.519 billion and HK $1.351 billion respectively, ranking first and second. In addition to the US group and Tencent, fast hand, millet, Kwai Ming biology, China Mobile and Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) are among the top ranked companies in the South capital turnover.
the delivery platform lowered the service fee, affecting meituan’s revenue
At the news level, on February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. With the consent of the State Council, 43 policies and measures were put forward to help enterprises relieve difficulties. The policy points out that enterprises on Internet platforms such as takeout will be guided to further reduce the service fee standard of catering merchants and reduce the operating costs of relevant catering enterprises. Guide Internet platform enterprises to give preferential service fees to phased merchants to catering enterprises in county-level administrative regions where high-risk areas are located.
According to the financial data, meituan achieved a revenue of 48.829 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%. The quarterly revenue of catering takeout was 26.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, accounting for 54.2%. It can be seen that catering takeout business accounted for half of meituan’s revenue.
Market analysts said that the policy clearly pointed out that it would guide Internet platform enterprises to further reduce the service fee standard of catering merchants, which would have a certain impact on the revenue of meituan’s main catering takeout business.
In terms of operation data, in the 12 months ended September 30, 2021, the number of transaction users of meituan was 668 million, an increase of 40.1% year-on-year; The number of active businesses was 8.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%; Each household has an average of 34.4 transactions per year. Meanwhile, the growth rate of meituan’s performance slowed down. In the third quarter of 2021, the transaction amount of catering takeout business was RMB 19.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, half of the growth rate of 60% in the previous quarter. While the growth rate of transaction volume slowed down, the average daily transaction number and revenue growth of catering takeout also slowed down, 34% and 31% respectively compared with the growth rate of the previous quarter.
will the final cost of rigid demand be passed on to consumers?
Meituan’s share price peaked in February 2021, reaching a maximum of HK $458 / share, and then fell all the way down, down more than 60%. According to the statistics of the financial Associated Press, from the peak of its share price to today, today’s decline ranked the second in a year.
In the face of the sudden sharp drop, some analysts interpreted that the policy adjustment of Internet takeout platform has been discussed repeatedly for many times in 2021. In this regard, the domestic market has basically expected, and foreign investors may still be worried about China’s policy and panic. However, even in the original text of the above documents, the “guide” takeout platform still reduces the merchant service fee standard as previously mentioned.
In addition, the NDRC is mainly to support small and medium-sized catering enterprises in difficulty. The small and medium-sized catering enterprises themselves have weak anti risk ability, and the epidemic intensifies their bankruptcy. The starting point of this document is to stabilize the economy under the current epidemic situation. From the medium and long-term perspective, the implementation of short-term policies (whether merchant or rider protection) will not affect the long-term value of meituan in the field of takeout, and the final cost of rigid demand will be passed on to consumers.
Recent research reports of securities companies are optimistic about meituan
According to the recent research report of securities companies, most securities companies rated meituan as “buy” and “recommend”. According to the data, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) a research report in January this year even gave the target price of meituan as HK $383.73, maintaining the overweight rating.
The latest research report on meituan comes from Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) . On February 16, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) gave meituan a “buy” rating with a target price of HK $265 / share. The report said that due to the control of the epidemic and the decline of macro consumption, the takeout and wine tourism business reduced the growth rate of takeout orders / night volume between wine and tourism in 21 / 22 years; Moreover, due to the impact of antitrust and macro-economy, more profit making businesses are needed. At the same time, the improvement progress of monetization rate slows down, and the monetization rate of takeout, store and tourism in 22 / 23 will be reduced. Due to the impact of social security, the cost of take out riders in 22 / 23 years was increased; At the same time, due to the company’s new business expansion strategy, the assumptions of sales expenses and R & D expenses in 21 years have been improved. However, it is believed that with the maturity of the business, the formation of scale effect and the optimization of operation efficiency will help to open up new space for profit in the long term.
At the same time, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) put policy control first in the risk prompt, and mentioned the anti-monopoly policy, social security management of takeout employment and the policy of prohibiting low price dumping, which may have a certain impact on the operation of meituan.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) gave meituan a target price of HK $324 on February 9, saying that it was expected that the takeout and in store wine travel business met the expectations. The risk warning is that the competitive environment deteriorates and the return on innovation business investment is less than expected, and the policy risk is not mentioned.
